Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Iowa beat Indiana, Florida beat Georgia, and Texas beat Oklahoma St. The relative strengths-of-schedule of these three unbeaten teams has jockeyed around to the point that there is basically no separating them. And this is leading me to second-guess my BCS predictions. Sort of…

One thing is almost certain – given that Florida will likely play either unbeaten Alabama or 1-loss LSU in the SEC championship, and given that all three will likely be in the top 10 in the BCS standings at the time, it is virtually guaranteed that the SEC champion will be in the national championship game, even if they have a loss. But what about the other spot?

Two weeks ago, I picked Iowa. Texas did not look invincible to me, whereas Iowa’s stifling defense seemed capable of holding back inexperienced Terrell Pryor and Ohio St’s underperforming offense. Now, though, even though Texas still has rivalry games coming up against Texas Tech and Texas A&M as well as the Big-12 championship against (likely) Kansas St, the Longhorns seem less likely to have a letdown than I originally thought, and the voters seem willing to send Texas to the National Championship now as long as they win out. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise St all have reasonable chances to finish undefeated, but none of them has a resume that can match Texas or Iowa’s, so it is unlikely for them to have a sniff at the national championship.

I’m tempted to replace Iowa with Texas in my NCG prediction, but to do so would be to admit defeat in what is inherently unfair about the BCS system: that Iowa would be denied a chance to play for the national title simply because nobody thought that they could before the season started. So, more as an act of defiance than anything else, I’m leaving Iowa in my NCG.

Meanwhile, you may ask why I’m picking the Rose Bowl to feature the Oregon-Boise St rematch, reopening LaGarrett Blount scabs in the process. The answer is, simply, that this year the Rose Bowl is required to take the BCS buster if either the Pac-10 or Big-10 champ goes to the NCG. Since I have Iowa going to the NCG, the Rose Bowl will have to take either Boise St or TCU. Right now, the Rose Bowl is rooting hard for Texas to win out (so that they can have an Oregon-Iowa matchup, which would be very entertaining), or secondarily for TCU to win out (so that at least they could take the Horned Frogs instead of the Broncos). As I have said previously, though, until TCU beats Utah, I’m leaving Boise St in my Rose Bowl projection

And now, the weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Not too many earth-shattering upsets this week. I’m going with South Florida’s 30-19 win over West Virginia. The Big East is going to get really interesting over the next few weeks as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia still all have to play each other.

Comeback of the week: Iowa scored 28 points in the 4th quarter to survive against Indiana, 42-24. Iowa has come back from 10-point deficits twice earlier this season, but they did so with defense, not with a point-scoring explosion.

Yawner of the week: Ohio St over New Mexico St, 45-0. The NMSU coach said in the 4th quarter that his team was just trying to be able to get out of Columbus healthy.

Game of the week: In the absence of a really marquee thrilling game, I’m going to go ahead and pick Cal’s 23-21 victory over Arizona St. For the first time in his career, Kevin Riley led a 2-minute drill at the end of the game to give his team a winning score, and Cal’s shaky kicking game redeemed itself with a last-second field goal. Cal is bowl eligible for the seventh straight year.

And now, the rankings:

Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Florida 8-0 6.150 STR-20 Last-4 AP-1
2 Texas 8-0 6.080 STR-23 Last-3 AP-2
3 Iowa 9-0 6.012 STR-30 Last-1 AP-8
4 Alabama 8-0 5.770 STR-32 Last-2 AP-3
5 Cincinnati 8-0 5.272 STR-56 Last-6 AP-4
6 Oregon 7-1 5.249 STR-7 Last-7 AP-7
7 TCU 8-0 5.097 STR-69 Last-5 AP-6
8 Boise St 8-0 4.387 STR-101 Last-9 AP-5
9 LSU 7-1 4.352 STR-34 Last-8 AP-9
10 Georgia Tech 8-1 4.258 STR-42 Last-11 AP-10
11 Penn St 8-1 4.060 STR-54 Last-14 AP-11
12 Pittsburgh 7-1 3.835 STR-52 Last-13 AP-14
13 Houston 7-1 3.629 STR-66 Last-16 AP-13
14 USC 6-2 3.629 STR-8 Last-12 AP-12
15 Utah 7-1 3.535 STR-83 Last-18 AP-17
16 Wisconsin 6-2 3.427 STR-17 Last-20 AP-24
17 Virginia Tech 5-3 3.407 STR-2 Last-10 AP-22
18 Miami FL 6-2 3.376 STR-18 Last-23 AP-16
19 Arizona 5-2 3.014 STR-16 Last-19 AP-21
20 Ohio St 7-2 2.998 STR-43 Last-22 AP-15
21 Oklahoma St 6-2 2.942 STR-38 Last-17 AP-18
22 Notre Dame 6-2 2.850 STR-36 Last-21 AP-19
23 West Virginia 6-2 2.588 STR-53 Last-15 AP-30
24 BYU 6-2 2.535 STR-55 Last-26 AP-25
25 California 6-2 2.428 STR-72 Last-28 AP-23
26 South Florida 6-2 2.422 STR-81 AP-26
27 Troy 6-2 2.253 STR-80
28 Boston Coll 6-3 2.092 STR-35 AP-32
29 Clemson 5-3 2.076 STR-15 AP-27
30 Auburn 6-3 2.023 STR-37 AP-28
31 Rutgers 6-2 2.010 STR-96 AP-31
32 Oklahoma 5-3 1.981 STR-25 AP-20
33 Idaho 7-2 1.955 STR-104 AP-36
34 Oregon St 5-3 1.817 STR-31 AP-33
35 Cent Michigan 7-2 1.778 STR-111 Last-25 AP-33
36 Texas Tech 6-3 1.661 STR-67 AP-29
37 Minnesota 5-4 1.563 STR-9
38 Navy 6-3 1.522 STR-76
39 South Carolina 6-3 1.483 STR-79 Last-24 AP-37
40 Missouri 5-3 1.428 STR-46
41 Nebraska 5-3 1.357 STR-44
42 Temple 6-2 1.176 STR-116 AP-37
43 North Carolina 5-3 1.158 STR-62
44 Fresno St 5-3 1.147 STR-73
45 Georgia 4-4 1.117 STR-4
46 Mississippi 5-3 1.104 STR-75
47 Texas A&M 5-3 1.007 STR-82
48 Kansas 5-3 0.999 STR-78
49 Florida St 4-4 0.988 STR-10
50 Nevada 5-3 0.952 STR-84
51 Tennessee 4-4 0.945 STR-11 AP-35
52 Kentucky 4-4 0.906 STR-12
53 Stanford 5-3 0.889 STR-90
54 Iowa St 5-4 0.761 STR-41
55 Marshall 5-3 0.759 STR-93
56 Washington 3-5 0.646 STR-1
57 Arkansas 4-4 0.603 STR-28
58 East Carolina 5-3 0.588 STR-103
59 Air Force 5-4 0.571 STR-57
60 Mississippi St 4-5 0.475 STR-6
61 Michigan 5-4 0.442 STR-63
62 Connecticut 4-4 0.407 STR-33
63 Northern Illinois 5-3 0.352 STR-110
64 Middle Tenn St 5-3 0.193 STR-113
65 SMU 4-4 0.099 STR-45
66 Michigan St 4-5 0.091 STR-19
67 Ohio 6-3 0.001 STR-121
68 Kansas St 5-4 -0.007 STR-97
69 Duke 5-3 -0.021 STR-117
70 Southern Miss 5-4 -0.123 STR-100
71 UCLA 3-5 -0.215 STR-3
72 Arizona St 4-4 -0.240 STR-87
73 UCF 4-3 -0.284 STR-114
74 LA Monroe 4-4 -0.313 STR-86
75 Northwestern 5-4 -0.339 STR-109
76 Kent St 5-4 -0.462 STR-112
77 Bowling Green 3-5 -0.583 STR-27
78 Wake Forest 4-5 -0.583 STR-60
79 Wyoming 4-4 -0.602 STR-99
80 Syracuse 3-5 -0.732 STR-24
81 Louisville 3-5 -0.741 STR-22
82 San Diego St 4-4 -0.745 STR-106
83 Purdue 3-6 -0.869 STR-13
84 Indiana 4-5 -0.891 STR-88
85 Virginia 3-5 -1.084 STR-40
86 UTEP 3-5 -1.086 STR-49
87 Tulsa 4-4 -1.088 STR-120
88 LA Lafayette 4-4 -1.112 STR-119
89 Colorado St 3-6 -1.141 STR-21
90 Baylor 3-5 -1.158 STR-50
91 W Michigan 4-5 -1.165 STR-102
92 NC St 3-5 -1.288 STR-74
93 UAB 3-5 -1.302 STR-68
94 Toledo 4-5 -1.340 STR-108
95 Buffalo 3-5 -1.500 STR-85
96 Louisiana Tech 3-5 -1.704 STR-94
97 UNLV 3-6 -1.731 STR-58
98 Colorado 2-6 -2.000 STR-26
99 Army 3-5 -2.115 STR-115
100 Arkansas St 2-5 -2.213 STR-51
101 Florida Atlantic 2-5 -2.247 STR-77
102 Tulane 2-6 -2.349 STR-39
103 New Mexico St 3-6 -2.349 STR-107
104 Illinois 2-6 -2.448 STR-47
105 Maryland 2-6 -2.452 STR-59
106 Utah St 2-6 -2.555 STR-61
107 Florida Intl 2-6 -2.631 STR-70
108 Memphis 2-6 -2.705 STR-91
109 Hawaii 2-6 -2.793 STR-89
110 North Texas 2-6 -2.960 STR-98
111 Vanderbilt 2-7 -2.975 STR-65
112 San Jose St 1-6 -3.028 STR-5
113 Washington St 1-7 -3.302 STR-14
114 Miami OH 1-8 -3.591 STR-29
115 Akron 1-7 -3.965 STR-71
116 Others-Normal -4.501 STR-48
117 Ball St 1-8 -4.667 STR-118
118 Rice 0-8 -5.234 STR-64
119 New Mexico 0-8 -5.382 STR-95
120 East Michigan 0-8 -5.396 STR-92
121 West Kentucky 0-8 -5.559 STR-105

Most overrated team: Oklahoma (5-3, AP#20, Hack#32) Same reasons as last week.

Most underrated team: Wisconsin (6-2, AP#24, Hack#16) Same reasons as last week.


BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions:
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida


Interesting games this week:
(9) LSU vs. (4) Alabama [Winner likely to face Florida in SEC championship]
(48) Kansas vs. (68) Kansas St [The Big-12 North is wide open right now, but K-St controls its own fate in trying to reach the Big-12 championship]
(20) Ohio St vs. (11) Penn St [If Penn St wins, Iowa can win the Big 10 even if they lose to Ohio St next week]
(62) Connecticut vs. (5) Cincinnati [Bearcats continue to hope that Iowa and Texas lose]
(6) Oregon vs. (53) Stanford [Ducks can’t afford to look past the suddenly respectable Cardinal]
(7) TCU vs. (82) San Diego St [Horned Frogs continue to make their case for a BCS bid]
(44) Fresno St vs. (33) Idaho [I only picked this game because of the novelty of two middle-of-the-road WAC teams being above .500 at this point in the season]
(49) Florida St vs. (29) Clemson [As bad as FSU has looked, they are not out of the running for a berth in the ACC championship]
(34) Oregon St vs. (25) California [Kevin Riley got one monkey off his back last week at ASU – can he do it again this week against the Beavers?]

It was a strangely low-adrenaline weekend in college football. Cal played the easiest remaining game on its schedule and trounced Washington St, 49-17. There were some exciting games, but very few upsets – so few, in fact, that my BCS projections are going to remain unchanged from last week to this. The weekly awards:

Comeback of the week: Iowa over Michigan St, 15-13. The Hawkeyes engaged in another one of their characteristic defensive struggles, but they needed a 4th-down touchdown pass with 2 seconds left in the game to pull out the victory over the Spartans. Iowa passes another big road test, and they have one more remaining (at Ohio St)

Upset of the week: Honorable mention to Nevada’s 70-45 win over Idaho, a game that takes a little of the luster off of the upcoming matchup between Idaho and Boise St. Clemson over Miami, 40-37. I picked Georgia Tech to win the ACC title last week because I thought that Miami more likely to lose a game down the stretch than G-Tech or V-Tech. I wasn’t expecting them to lose to Clemson, though, who got a last-second field goal to send the game into overtime before winning it with a 26-yard touchdown pass. Strangely, Clemson now finds itself with the inside track to face G-Tech in the ACC Championship game.

Yawner of the week: UCF over Rice, 49-7. Not much else to say about this game.

Game of the week: Alabama over Tennessee, 12-10. One of the more storied rivalries in college football, the Crimson Tide needed two blocked field goals, including one in the final seconds, to preserve its unbeaten season.

And now, with a sufficient number of games played to claim full reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Iowa 8-0 5.897 STR-10 Last-1 AP-7
2 Alabama 8-0 5.317 STR-31 Last-3 AP-2
3 Texas 7-0 5.289 STR-32 Last-4 AP-3
4 Florida 7-0 5.288 STR-35 Last-2 AP-1
5 TCU 7-0 4.709 STR-56 Last-6 AP-8
6 Cincinnati 7-0 4.344 STR-80 Last-5 AP-5
7 Oregon 6-1 4.304 STR-19 Last-9 AP-10
8 LSU 6-1 4.040 STR-27 Last-11 AP-9
9 Boise St 7-0 4.039 STR-96 Last-7 AP-6
10 Virginia Tech 5-2 3.981 STR-2 Last-8 AP-14
11 Georgia Tech 7-1 3.873 STR-37 Last-10 AP-11
12 USC 6-1 3.826 STR-29 Last-13 AP-4
13 Pittsburgh 7-1 3.486 STR-51 Last-14 AP-16
14 Penn St 7-1 3.464 STR-59 Last-15 AP-12
15 West Virginia 6-1 3.150 STR-64 Last-18 AP-20
16 Houston 6-1 3.006 STR-73 Last-16 AP-15
17 Oklahoma St 6-1 2.974 STR-81 Last-19 AP-13
18 Utah 6-1 2.915 STR-79 Last-23 AP-19
19 Arizona 5-2 2.889 STR-13 Last-20 AP-23
20 Wisconsin 5-2 2.889 STR-12 Last-17 AP-30
21 Notre Dame 5-2 2.827 STR-17 Last-26 AP-25
22 Ohio St 6-2 2.789 STR-33 Last-21 AP-17
23 Miami FL 5-2 2.771 STR-21 Last-12 AP-18
24 South Carolina 6-2 2.481 STR-45 Last-27 AP-21
25 Cent Michigan 7-1 2.384 STR-108 Last-28 AP-27
26 BYU 6-2 2.207 STR-62 Last-25 AP-26
27 Navy 6-2 1.919 STR-84 AP-31
28 California 5-2 1.872 STR-69 AP-28
29 Mississippi 5-2 1.724 STR-76 AP-24
30 Clemson 4-3 1.711 STR-4 AP-33
31 Kansas 5-2 1.688 STR-70 Last-24 AP-32
32 Kentucky 4-3 1.676 STR-6
33 Idaho 6-2 1.529 STR-102 Last-22
34 Oklahoma 4-3 1.511 STR-16 AP-22
35 Michigan 5-3 1.492 STR-38
36 Georgia 4-3 1.478 STR-18
37 South Florida 5-2 1.465 STR-94
38 Oregon St 4-3 1.425 STR-22
39 Iowa St 5-3 1.389 STR-39
40 Auburn 5-3 1.366 STR-44
41 Troy 5-2 1.315 STR-97
42 Boston Coll 5-3 1.281 STR-46
43 Rutgers 5-2 1.237 STR-106 AP-34
44 Nebraska 4-3 1.110 STR-30
45 Stanford 5-3 0.977 STR-68
46 Minnesota 4-4 0.935 STR-9
47 Texas Tech 5-3 0.881 STR-82 AP-29
48 Connecticut 4-3 0.873 STR-40
49 Missouri 4-3 0.861 STR-43
50 Marshall 5-3 0.779 STR-83
51 Fresno St 4-3 0.757 STR-54
52 Michigan St 4-4 0.754 STR-20
53 Washington 3-5 0.688 STR-1
54 Nevada 4-3 0.641 STR-58
55 Kansas St 5-3 0.539 STR-100
56 Temple 5-2 0.469 STR-119
57 Arkansas 3-4 0.441 STR-3
58 Arizona St 4-3 0.310 STR-85
59 Texas A&M 4-3 0.290 STR-88
60 UCLA 3-4 0.263 STR-7
61 North Carolina 4-3 0.260 STR-86
62 LA Monroe 4-3 0.248 STR-89
63 Florida St 3-4 0.187 STR-14
64 East Carolina 4-3 0.162 STR-98
65 Southern Miss 5-3 0.121 STR-111
66 Air Force 4-4 0.110 STR-50
67 Tennessee 3-4 0.101 STR-15
68 Northern Illinois 4-3 0.098 STR-99
69 Northwestern 5-3 -0.131 STR-118
70 Wake Forest 4-4 -0.156 STR-75
71 UTEP 3-4 -0.158 STR-34
72 LA Lafayette 4-3 -0.229 STR-109
73 Wyoming 4-3 -0.234 STR-107
74 UCF 4-3 -0.254 STR-112
75 Duke 4-3 -0.305 STR-110
76 Ohio 5-3 -0.343 STR-121
77 Mississippi St 3-5 -0.373 STR-11
78 Middle Tenn St 4-3 -0.439 STR-116
79 Syracuse 3-4 -0.445 STR-41
80 Tulsa 4-3 -0.445 STR-117
81 W Michigan 4-4 -0.476 STR-95
82 Baylor 3-4 -0.495 STR-48
83 Virginia 3-4 -0.510 STR-42
84 Toledo 4-4 -0.531 STR-101
85 SMU 3-4 -0.579 STR-47
86 Purdue 3-5 -0.582 STR-28
87 Indiana 4-4 -0.611 STR-103
88 Colorado St 3-5 -0.633 STR-26
89 NC St 3-4 -0.637 STR-65
90 Bowling Green 3-5 -0.642 STR-36
91 San Diego St 3-4 -0.894 STR-78
92 Kent St 4-4 -0.973 STR-114
93 Colorado 2-5 -1.095 STR-8
94 Buffalo 3-5 -1.160 STR-61
95 Louisville 2-5 -1.166 STR-5
96 Louisiana Tech 3-4 -1.239 STR-105
97 Florida Atlantic 2-4 -1.446 STR-57
98 UNLV 3-5 -1.481 STR-92
99 Arkansas St 2-4 -1.525 STR-52
100 Army 3-5 -1.906 STR-113
101 Tulane 2-5 -1.914 STR-60
102 UAB 2-5 -1.960 STR-72
103 New Mexico St 3-5 -1.972 STR-115
104 Memphis 2-5 -2.049 STR-77
105 Utah St 2-5 -2.050 STR-74
106 Hawaii 2-5 -2.252 STR-90
107 Maryland 2-6 -2.272 STR-71
108 Vanderbilt 2-6 -2.555 STR-87
109 San Jose St 1-5 -2.690 STR-25
110 Washington St 1-6 -2.835 STR-23
111 Illinois 1-6 -3.274 STR-53
112 Florida Intl 1-6 -3.311 STR-55
113 North Texas 1-6 -3.325 STR-67
114 Akron 1-6 -3.354 STR-66
115 Others-Normal -3.998 STR-49
116 Ball St 1-7 -4.187 STR-120
117 Miami OH 0-8 -4.334 STR-24
118 Rice 0-8 -4.662 STR-63
119 New Mexico 0-7 -4.788 STR-93
120 East Michigan 0-7 -4.801 STR-91
121 West Kentucky 0-7 -4.944 STR-104

Most overrated team: Oklahoma (4-3, AP#22, Hack#34) The Sooners have definitely been the hard-luck team of 2009, losing their Heisman-winning quarterback in the first game of the season, and then seeing the same player reinjure himself a few weeks later attempting his comeback. That having been said, though Oklahoma’s three losses have been against quality teams (BYU, Miami, and Texas), of Oklahoma’s four opponents that they have beaten (Idaho St, Tulsa, Baylor, and Kansas), only Kansas has a winning record, and they are not ranked. Oklahoma still has games against Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St, so we will see if they can rebound without Sam Bradford.

Most underrated team: Wisconsin (5-2, AP#30, Hack#20) Same reasons as last week, and the Badgers had a bye this past Saturday so they didn’t move much in either poll.

BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions: After TCU’s convincing win over BYU last week, I was tempted to put them in the Rose Bowl instead of Boise St, but I’m going to wait until they survive Utah. Everything remains unchanged from last week:

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida


Interesting games next week:
(87) Indiana vs. (1) Iowa [Hawkeyes already low-performing offense will have to do without running back Adam Robinson]
(36) Georgia vs. (4) Florida [Urban Meyer said Tim Tebow has been playing a little tight. Can Bulldogs’ defense slow him down enough to steal a win?]
(3) Texas vs. (17) Oklahoma St [It’s put-up or shut-up time for the Cowboys, who I think have been a tad overrated all year.]
(73) Wyoming vs. (18) Utah [Winner of this game will be TCU’s biggest remaining hurdle en route to a Mountain West title]
(15) West Virginia vs. (37) South Florida [Bulls are tough at home, but again they don’t have Matt Groethe.]
(12) USC vs. (7) Oregon [Winner should win the Pac-10 title this year]
(28) California vs. (58) Arizona St [Cal tries to climb back into the top-25]