Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

It was a strangely low-adrenaline weekend in college football. Cal played the easiest remaining game on its schedule and trounced Washington St, 49-17. There were some exciting games, but very few upsets – so few, in fact, that my BCS projections are going to remain unchanged from last week to this. The weekly awards:

Comeback of the week: Iowa over Michigan St, 15-13. The Hawkeyes engaged in another one of their characteristic defensive struggles, but they needed a 4th-down touchdown pass with 2 seconds left in the game to pull out the victory over the Spartans. Iowa passes another big road test, and they have one more remaining (at Ohio St)

Upset of the week: Honorable mention to Nevada’s 70-45 win over Idaho, a game that takes a little of the luster off of the upcoming matchup between Idaho and Boise St. Clemson over Miami, 40-37. I picked Georgia Tech to win the ACC title last week because I thought that Miami more likely to lose a game down the stretch than G-Tech or V-Tech. I wasn’t expecting them to lose to Clemson, though, who got a last-second field goal to send the game into overtime before winning it with a 26-yard touchdown pass. Strangely, Clemson now finds itself with the inside track to face G-Tech in the ACC Championship game.

Yawner of the week: UCF over Rice, 49-7. Not much else to say about this game.

Game of the week: Alabama over Tennessee, 12-10. One of the more storied rivalries in college football, the Crimson Tide needed two blocked field goals, including one in the final seconds, to preserve its unbeaten season.

And now, with a sufficient number of games played to claim full reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Iowa 8-0 5.897 STR-10 Last-1 AP-7
2 Alabama 8-0 5.317 STR-31 Last-3 AP-2
3 Texas 7-0 5.289 STR-32 Last-4 AP-3
4 Florida 7-0 5.288 STR-35 Last-2 AP-1
5 TCU 7-0 4.709 STR-56 Last-6 AP-8
6 Cincinnati 7-0 4.344 STR-80 Last-5 AP-5
7 Oregon 6-1 4.304 STR-19 Last-9 AP-10
8 LSU 6-1 4.040 STR-27 Last-11 AP-9
9 Boise St 7-0 4.039 STR-96 Last-7 AP-6
10 Virginia Tech 5-2 3.981 STR-2 Last-8 AP-14
11 Georgia Tech 7-1 3.873 STR-37 Last-10 AP-11
12 USC 6-1 3.826 STR-29 Last-13 AP-4
13 Pittsburgh 7-1 3.486 STR-51 Last-14 AP-16
14 Penn St 7-1 3.464 STR-59 Last-15 AP-12
15 West Virginia 6-1 3.150 STR-64 Last-18 AP-20
16 Houston 6-1 3.006 STR-73 Last-16 AP-15
17 Oklahoma St 6-1 2.974 STR-81 Last-19 AP-13
18 Utah 6-1 2.915 STR-79 Last-23 AP-19
19 Arizona 5-2 2.889 STR-13 Last-20 AP-23
20 Wisconsin 5-2 2.889 STR-12 Last-17 AP-30
21 Notre Dame 5-2 2.827 STR-17 Last-26 AP-25
22 Ohio St 6-2 2.789 STR-33 Last-21 AP-17
23 Miami FL 5-2 2.771 STR-21 Last-12 AP-18
24 South Carolina 6-2 2.481 STR-45 Last-27 AP-21
25 Cent Michigan 7-1 2.384 STR-108 Last-28 AP-27
26 BYU 6-2 2.207 STR-62 Last-25 AP-26
27 Navy 6-2 1.919 STR-84 AP-31
28 California 5-2 1.872 STR-69 AP-28
29 Mississippi 5-2 1.724 STR-76 AP-24
30 Clemson 4-3 1.711 STR-4 AP-33
31 Kansas 5-2 1.688 STR-70 Last-24 AP-32
32 Kentucky 4-3 1.676 STR-6
33 Idaho 6-2 1.529 STR-102 Last-22
34 Oklahoma 4-3 1.511 STR-16 AP-22
35 Michigan 5-3 1.492 STR-38
36 Georgia 4-3 1.478 STR-18
37 South Florida 5-2 1.465 STR-94
38 Oregon St 4-3 1.425 STR-22
39 Iowa St 5-3 1.389 STR-39
40 Auburn 5-3 1.366 STR-44
41 Troy 5-2 1.315 STR-97
42 Boston Coll 5-3 1.281 STR-46
43 Rutgers 5-2 1.237 STR-106 AP-34
44 Nebraska 4-3 1.110 STR-30
45 Stanford 5-3 0.977 STR-68
46 Minnesota 4-4 0.935 STR-9
47 Texas Tech 5-3 0.881 STR-82 AP-29
48 Connecticut 4-3 0.873 STR-40
49 Missouri 4-3 0.861 STR-43
50 Marshall 5-3 0.779 STR-83
51 Fresno St 4-3 0.757 STR-54
52 Michigan St 4-4 0.754 STR-20
53 Washington 3-5 0.688 STR-1
54 Nevada 4-3 0.641 STR-58
55 Kansas St 5-3 0.539 STR-100
56 Temple 5-2 0.469 STR-119
57 Arkansas 3-4 0.441 STR-3
58 Arizona St 4-3 0.310 STR-85
59 Texas A&M 4-3 0.290 STR-88
60 UCLA 3-4 0.263 STR-7
61 North Carolina 4-3 0.260 STR-86
62 LA Monroe 4-3 0.248 STR-89
63 Florida St 3-4 0.187 STR-14
64 East Carolina 4-3 0.162 STR-98
65 Southern Miss 5-3 0.121 STR-111
66 Air Force 4-4 0.110 STR-50
67 Tennessee 3-4 0.101 STR-15
68 Northern Illinois 4-3 0.098 STR-99
69 Northwestern 5-3 -0.131 STR-118
70 Wake Forest 4-4 -0.156 STR-75
71 UTEP 3-4 -0.158 STR-34
72 LA Lafayette 4-3 -0.229 STR-109
73 Wyoming 4-3 -0.234 STR-107
74 UCF 4-3 -0.254 STR-112
75 Duke 4-3 -0.305 STR-110
76 Ohio 5-3 -0.343 STR-121
77 Mississippi St 3-5 -0.373 STR-11
78 Middle Tenn St 4-3 -0.439 STR-116
79 Syracuse 3-4 -0.445 STR-41
80 Tulsa 4-3 -0.445 STR-117
81 W Michigan 4-4 -0.476 STR-95
82 Baylor 3-4 -0.495 STR-48
83 Virginia 3-4 -0.510 STR-42
84 Toledo 4-4 -0.531 STR-101
85 SMU 3-4 -0.579 STR-47
86 Purdue 3-5 -0.582 STR-28
87 Indiana 4-4 -0.611 STR-103
88 Colorado St 3-5 -0.633 STR-26
89 NC St 3-4 -0.637 STR-65
90 Bowling Green 3-5 -0.642 STR-36
91 San Diego St 3-4 -0.894 STR-78
92 Kent St 4-4 -0.973 STR-114
93 Colorado 2-5 -1.095 STR-8
94 Buffalo 3-5 -1.160 STR-61
95 Louisville 2-5 -1.166 STR-5
96 Louisiana Tech 3-4 -1.239 STR-105
97 Florida Atlantic 2-4 -1.446 STR-57
98 UNLV 3-5 -1.481 STR-92
99 Arkansas St 2-4 -1.525 STR-52
100 Army 3-5 -1.906 STR-113
101 Tulane 2-5 -1.914 STR-60
102 UAB 2-5 -1.960 STR-72
103 New Mexico St 3-5 -1.972 STR-115
104 Memphis 2-5 -2.049 STR-77
105 Utah St 2-5 -2.050 STR-74
106 Hawaii 2-5 -2.252 STR-90
107 Maryland 2-6 -2.272 STR-71
108 Vanderbilt 2-6 -2.555 STR-87
109 San Jose St 1-5 -2.690 STR-25
110 Washington St 1-6 -2.835 STR-23
111 Illinois 1-6 -3.274 STR-53
112 Florida Intl 1-6 -3.311 STR-55
113 North Texas 1-6 -3.325 STR-67
114 Akron 1-6 -3.354 STR-66
115 Others-Normal -3.998 STR-49
116 Ball St 1-7 -4.187 STR-120
117 Miami OH 0-8 -4.334 STR-24
118 Rice 0-8 -4.662 STR-63
119 New Mexico 0-7 -4.788 STR-93
120 East Michigan 0-7 -4.801 STR-91
121 West Kentucky 0-7 -4.944 STR-104

Most overrated team: Oklahoma (4-3, AP#22, Hack#34) The Sooners have definitely been the hard-luck team of 2009, losing their Heisman-winning quarterback in the first game of the season, and then seeing the same player reinjure himself a few weeks later attempting his comeback. That having been said, though Oklahoma’s three losses have been against quality teams (BYU, Miami, and Texas), of Oklahoma’s four opponents that they have beaten (Idaho St, Tulsa, Baylor, and Kansas), only Kansas has a winning record, and they are not ranked. Oklahoma still has games against Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St, so we will see if they can rebound without Sam Bradford.

Most underrated team: Wisconsin (5-2, AP#30, Hack#20) Same reasons as last week, and the Badgers had a bye this past Saturday so they didn’t move much in either poll.

BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions: After TCU’s convincing win over BYU last week, I was tempted to put them in the Rose Bowl instead of Boise St, but I’m going to wait until they survive Utah. Everything remains unchanged from last week:

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida


Interesting games next week:
(87) Indiana vs. (1) Iowa [Hawkeyes already low-performing offense will have to do without running back Adam Robinson]
(36) Georgia vs. (4) Florida [Urban Meyer said Tim Tebow has been playing a little tight. Can Bulldogs’ defense slow him down enough to steal a win?]
(3) Texas vs. (17) Oklahoma St [It’s put-up or shut-up time for the Cowboys, who I think have been a tad overrated all year.]
(73) Wyoming vs. (18) Utah [Winner of this game will be TCU’s biggest remaining hurdle en route to a Mountain West title]
(15) West Virginia vs. (37) South Florida [Bulls are tough at home, but again they don’t have Matt Groethe.]
(12) USC vs. (7) Oregon [Winner should win the Pac-10 title this year]
(28) California vs. (58) Arizona St [Cal tries to climb back into the top-25]

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