It was a cold October afternoon in 1996 in Pullman, Washington. The California Golden Bears, under the direction of new head coach Steve Mariucci, were 5-0 and riding high following a stunning 22-15 upset of USC at the L.A. Coliseum. After 5 years of mediocrity with Keith Gilbertson calling the shots, Cal fans had visions of a Pac-10 championship, a trip to the Rose Bowl, and a top-10 ranking for the first time since 1992. But on this particular afternoon, the Bears seemed inept on offense and made several special teams mistakes in the first half. As the sun set and a light snow began to fall, the teams went to the locker room with Washington St holding a commanding 21-3 lead.

But in the second half, the Bears turned it around. Halftime adjustments enabled them to close the gap to 21-18, but they were still pinned deep in their own territory with less than four minutes to play. A well-engineered drive, though, suddenly found the Bears with a 1^st-and-goal from the 1-yard-line and enough time on the clock to permit a couple of running plays to score before perhaps having to settle for a tying field goal. The halfback charged forward at the goal line, forgetting to take the ball with him! An opportunistic defensive lineman pounced on the fumble, preserving the Cougars’ slim lead and dealing the Bears their first loss. Cal ended up losing 6 of their last 7 games including a loss to Navy in the Aloha Bowl, Steve Mariucci left after the season to coach the 49ers, and Bear fans were stuck in another five-year cycle of mediocrity under the anemic direction of Tom Holmoe.

Back in Berkeley, following the fatal fumble at the end of the Cal-WSU game, I stared in disbelief at the television for several minutes before being drafted to act as designated driver for five members of the Rally Committee, who were in the process of drowning various sorrows (mostly involving the game) at a local establishment. That feeling of disbelief was duplicated for the first time this past weekend as the Bears, working with backup quarterback Kevin Riley because the injury Nate Longshore suffered against Oregon still hadn’t healed, found themselves down 10 points to Oregon St with six and a half minutes left to play. They scored one touchdown and had engineered a 90-yard drive (including converting a 4^th-and-17 – sound familiar John Elway?) to get the ball to the Beaver 5-yard-line with 14 seconds to play. But Riley, rather than throwing the ball away when no receivers were open, made the mistake of trying to run the ball into the end zone and was tackled in bounds. The clock ran out before a tying field goal could be attempted, and dreams of being the #1 ranked team in the country (LSU had already lost) were dashed.

In the words of John Cage, I need a moment…

Okay, let’s get to the weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Even though Cal’s loss had the most impact on me personally, the fact is that the Bears were operating with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start, so the disappointing outcome still exceeded my initial expectations. I would be tempted to tout LSU’s triple-overtime loss to Kentucky as a big upset, but Kentucky continues to validate my view of them as a legitimate championship contender. So the upset that really shocked me this week was Iowa’s 10-6 win over Illinois. The Fighting Illini had everyone believing that they were ready to contend for their first Big-10 title since 2001, but entirely failed to generate any offensive rhythm against the Hawkeyes. This leaves Ohio St firmly in the driver’s seat toward yet another conference title, although it is worthy of note that, despite their dismal 0-2 start, Michigan is undefeated in conference play and looking stronger by the week.

Comeback of the week: I’ve been panning them for their soft schedule, but I’ll give Hawaii props for their 4^th-quarter 14-point comeback at San Jose St to preserve their undefeated season. The Warriors will be an interesting team to watch from a BCS perspective. Due to their weak schedule, they will never climb very high in computer polls. Humans, however, will keep moving Hawaii up – not necessarily because of the team’s merit but because the voters feel compelled to drop highly ranked teams that lose games (such as Cal and LSU, and many more before the year is out). If this year’s particularly upset-heavy carnage continues, Hawaii could back into the top-10 if they can stay undefeated.

Yawner of the week: Ohio St now finds itself at the top of the human polls following its 48-3 win over Kent St. This is not necessarily by its own merit – again voters will tend to move up the highest previously rated team that didn’t lose. It is interesting to note, however, that the Buckeyes are hardly a consensus #1 – six teams (including Arizona St!) received first-place votes in the most recent poll. I am gratified that 11 pollsters agreed with my view that, despite the newness of their program, the South Florida Bulls have as impressive a resume as any other team in the nation and deserve a #1 ranking.

Game of the week: Gotta go with Kentucky’s 43-37 win over LSU. Both teams are in my top-5, and the game had everyone on the edges of their seats the whole time. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that we will see the rematch of this game in the SEC championship.

BCS watch: The SEC has 7 teams in my top-25, a fairly clear indicator that that is the strongest conference in the country at the moment. In the east, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida all control their own fates as far as being able to reach the SEC title game, while in the west, LSU, Alabama, and Auburn are all in good shape if any of them win out. The best bet at the moment is an LSU-South Carolina SEC title game, and the winner of that game has a good shot of going to the national title game.

In the Big East, South Florida is in the driver’s seat, but Connecticut (unlikely) and Louisville (reasonable shot if their defense can continue to improve) also control their own paths to a Big East title. The difference is, if South Florida wins out they probably go to the BCS title game. The best that UConn or Louisville can hope for is a trip to the Orange Bowl.

In the Pac-10, despite all the recent upsets, Cal and USC still each control their own fate along with UCLA and Arizona St. Each of those four still has to play the other three, and USC, UCLA, and Arizona St have to play Oregon as well (and Oregon is probably playing the best football in the conference at the moment).

In the Big 10, despite Illinois’ upset loss, they still control their own fate to try to win the Big 10 title, as do Michigan and Ohio St. Of the three, however, the Buckeyes are the only team with a reasonable shot at the national championship game. The Buckeyes currently lead the BCS standings, but they will have to run the table to get to the title game – too many teams would leapfrog them if they were to lose a game.

In the ACC, Boston College continues to win even though several of their wins have been pretty ugly. They are a strong favorite to reach the ACC title game, where they will likely face either Virginia Tech or Virginia. A national title is a long shot at best for the Eagles, though – their strength of schedule is just too low.

In the Big 12, Nebraska was expected to be the class of the northern division, but now it looks like Kansas, Colorado, and Missouri will be fighting it out for a trip to the conference title game. The standings in the south are more convoluted, with 4 teams tied for the top spot. Of the four, however, only Oklahoma controls its own destiny, and they are playing the best football in the conference at the moment.

Of mid-majors, only Hawaii stands a legitimate shot at reaching the BCS. They are #18 now and will need to climb six spots in order to garner an automatic berth. The problem is, the Warriors do not have a big traveling fan base, so none of the big bowls are going to want them, and their weak schedule is not going to propel them upwards. The question is, will enough teams ahead of them lose enough games to allow them to climb to #12 by default.

BCS Bowl pie-in-the-sky predictions:

Rose Bowl: Arizona St. vs. Ohio St

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. Missouri

Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. West Virginia

Championship: South Florida vs. LSU

And now, with 78.1% reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

Rank	Team		Wins	Losses	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	South Florida		6	0	4.629	32	2	2
2	LSU		6	1	4.308	6	1	5
3	Arizona St		7	0	4.104	55	4	12
4	Ohio St		7	0	3.764	90	5	1
5	Kentucky		6	1	3.715	14	15	8
6	Boston Coll		7	0	3.632	99	7	3
7	South Carolina		6	1	3.531	24	8	6
8	Oregon		5	1	3.463	16	10	7
9	Kansas		6	0	3.310	110	13	15
10	Oklahoma		6	1	3.218	38	20	4
11	Missouri		5	1	3.068	36	3	15
12	Virginia Tech		6	1	2.915	59	12	11
13	Virginia		6	1	2.909	56	26	27
14	California		5	1	2.844	45	6	10
15	West Virginia		5	1	2.825	52	16	9
16	Tennessee		4	2	2.436	7	31	20
17	Florida		4	2	2.416	8	18	14
18	Cincinnati		6	1	2.398	97	11	23
19	Auburn		5	2	2.300	42	23	18
20	Georgia		5	2	2.269	22	32	21
21	Kansas St		4	2	2.153	13	39	25
22	Wake Forest		4	2	2.119	12	35	31
23	Hawaii		7	0	2.110	121	33	17
24	Texas Tech		6	1	2.053	113	38	22
25	Connecticut		5	1	2.051	108	14	34
26	Illinois		5	2	1.987	41	9	28
27	Boise St		4	1	1.956	93		29
28	USC		5	1	1.826	111		13
29	Wyoming		4	2	1.778	31	22
30	Michigan St		5	2	1.738	50
31	Texas		5	2	1.731	58		19
32	Florida St		4	2	1.728	29	17	36
33	BYU		4	2	1.709	33		39
34	Texas A&M		5	2	1.678	64	21
35	Wisconsin		5	2	1.673	62	19	31
36	Alabama		5	2	1.665	66		30
37	Penn St		5	2	1.649	65		26
38	Michigan		5	2	1.607	57		24
39	Maryland		4	2	1.452	48		36
40	Colorado		4	3	1.451	9	25
41	Purdue		5	2	1.425	86
42	Indiana		5	2	1.395	89	24
43	Oregon St		4	3	1.394	11
44	UCLA		4	2	1.287	46
45	Rutgers		4	2	1.269	69		31
46	Oklahoma St		4	3	1.249	15
47	Air Force		5	2	1.247	104		38
48	Navy		4	2	1.163	72
49	New Mexico		4	2	1.163	76
50	Nebraska		4	3	1.121	19
51	Georgia Tech		4	3	1.118	20
52	Tulsa		4	2	1.118	75
53	East Carolina		4	3	1.116	17
54	Clemson		4	2	1.079	83		34
55	Mississippi St		4	3	1.047	23
56	Fresno St		4	2	0.910	101
57	UTEP		4	3	0.547	61
58	Ball St		4	3	0.547	63
59	Troy		4	2	0.543	115		40
60	Northwestern		4	3	0.421	67
61	Miami OH		4	3	0.410	68
62	TCU		4	3	0.329	81
63	Utah		4	3	0.323	80
64	Arkansas		3	3	0.250	37
65	Louisville		4	3	0.196	92
66	Bowling Green		3	3	0.150	43
67	Florida Atlantic		3	3	0.107	44
68	Cent Michigan		4	3	0.104	105
69	Miami FL		4	3	0.074	102
70	Vanderbilt		3	3	-0.138	73
71	UCF		3	3	-0.147	71
72	Washington		2	4	-0.154	1
73	Stanford		2	4	-0.216	3
74	Akron		3	4	-0.257	30
75	Houston		3	3	-0.451	103
76	Southern Miss		3	3	-0.517	106
77	Baylor		3	4	-0.580	53
78	Kent St		3	4	-0.617	54
79	West Kentucky		3	3	-0.680	114
80	New Mexico St		3	4	-0.780	87
81	Buffalo		3	4	-0.783	84
82	San Jose St		3	4	-0.791	77
83	W Michigan		3	4	-0.849	95
84	Army		3	4	-0.850	85
85	Iowa		3	4	-0.855	94
86	North Carolina		2	5	-0.862	5
87	Arkansas St		3	3	-0.889	118
88	Nevada		2	3	-1.142	100
89	Pittsburgh		2	4	-1.149	40
90	Ohio		3	4	-1.150	112
91	Louisiana Tech		2	4	-1.276	49
92	Mississippi		2	5	-1.397	21
93	UNLV		2	5	-1.462	27
94	Washington St		2	5	-1.481	28
95	UAB		2	4	-1.506	78
96	Arizona		2	5	-1.506	35
97	San Diego St		2	4	-1.604	79
98	Middle Tenn St		2	5	-1.793	51
99	Temple		2	5	-1.955	98
100	Toledo		2	5	-2.015	96
101	Notre Dame		1	6	-2.036	2
102	Duke		1	6	-2.139	4
103	East Michigan		2	5	-2.345	117
104	Minnesota		1	6	-2.398	10
105	Memphis		2	4	-2.458	120
106	NC St		1	5	-2.568	34
107	Syracuse		1	6	-2.594	25
108	LA Monroe		1	5	-2.688	60
109	Rice		1	5	-2.796	74
110	SMU		1	5	-2.858	82
111	Tulane		1	5	-2.956	91
112	Iowa St		1	6	-3.088	88
113	Others-Normal		0.674265	5.875735	-3.224	47
114	Idaho		1	6	-3.237	107
115	North Texas		1	5	-3.260	116
116	LA Lafayette		1	6	-3.286	109
117	Northern Illinois		1	6	-3.666	119
118	Florida Intl		0	6	-3.949	26
119	Utah St		0	6	-3.967	18
120	Colorado St		0	6	-4.068	39
121	Marshall		0	6	-4.233	70

Most overrated team: Hawaii (AP#17, Hack#23). It’s true that USC, Texas, Penn St, and Michigan are all ranked significantly higher in human polls than on my computer, but those four teams are all playing well right now and their stocks should continue to rise. Hawaii had to struggle to beat San Jose St and they still have no real signature wins this season. The best opportunity they will have for such a win will be when they play Boise St on November 23, but even that may not move them too much higher in my rankings.

Most underrated team: Virginia (AP#27, Hack#13). Virginia Tech is 6-1, has played the 59^th ranked schedule in the country, and is undefeated in the ACC. Virginia is 6-1, has played the 56^th ranked schedule, and is undefeated in the ACC. Yet AP voters rank V-Tech 11^th, while the Cavaliers remain unranked. The Cavs continue to fly under the radar with quality wins, but their schedule gets tougher from here on out. They culminate with a showdown against V-Tech on November 24, a matchup that looks like it could be an ACC semifinal game.

Interesting games next week (huge showdown week in the SEC):

(16) Tennessee vs. (36) Alabama [Resurgent Volunteers try to continue their roll]

(17) Florida vs. (5) Kentucky [After beating LSU, life doesn’t get any easier for Kentucky]

(19) Auburn vs. (2) LSU [Should be a tough, gritty defensive battle]

(65) Louisville vs. (25) Connecticut [If the Louisville defense has a good show, Brian Brohm could deal UConn its second straight loss]

(38) Michigan vs. (26) Illinois [Winner to challenge Ohio St for Big 10 title]

(6) Boston College vs. (12) Virginia Tech [Possible preview of ACC championship]

(9) Kansas vs. (40) Colorado [Jayhawks try to solidify trip to Big 12 championship]

(24) Texas Tech vs. (11) Missouri [Should be an offensive shootout]

(14) California vs. (44) UCLA [Will Longshore be healthy enough to play?]