At the beginning of the year, LSU and USC were considered the consensus favorites to reach the national championship game in Louisiana in January. Not that either team had a greater than 50% chance of reaching the title game, but merely that they had a greater chance than any other teams in the nation, and an undefeated season by either team would pretty much guarantee it admission to the title game. The fates of both early favorites were very much in jeopardy this past week, as evidenced in my weekly awards:

Upset of the Week: Undoubtedly the biggest upset this fall was Stanford, a 41-point underdog, going into the Coliseum and escaping with a 24-23 win. A gutsy performance by the Cardinal, who took advantage of 3 USC turnovers and converted a couple of key late fourth downs to shock the Coliseum crowd, who had expected to breeze through this game and were already looking ahead to tougher games on the Trojans’ schedule, such as visits to Oregon, Arizona St, and Cal. No longer the favorite to reach the title game, USC dropped to #10 in most national rankings and #28 in the Hack Poll.

Comeback of the Week: At the moment the final second ticked off the clock at the Coliseum, Florida was leading at LSU by a score of 24-14, and pollsters were beginning to consider the possibility of having to rank Cal as #1 in the country. But LSU scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, demonstrating great ball control in the process, to scrape by with a 28-24 victory. Les Miles showed great confidence in his offensive line as, during their last touchdown drive in the closing minutes, he opted to go for it on two fourth-and-short downs, including eschewing a chip-shot tying field goal to go for a fourth-and-inches from the six yard line. LSU is rightfully a consensus #1 team right now, but they still have to look forward to 6 more conference opponents including Kentucky, Auburn, and perhaps a rematch against Florida in the SEC championship game.

Yawner of the Week: There were not too many big blowouts this week, so I’m going to give the nod to Auburn’s 35-7 win over Vanderbilt. The Tigers led 28-0 at halftime and won in a dominating effort to get them back into the national rankings. No rest for the Tigers, though; they have tough road games at Arkansas and LSU the next two weeks.

Game of the Week: Even though the Stanford upset of USC was astounding and dramatic, the Florida-LSU game gets the nod for this award in my book. LSU truly played like a championship team the way they took control of this titanic battle at the end. I would like to give an honorable mention to Cincinnati’s 28-23 comeback win over Rutgers. Last week I had predicted that Cincinnati’s up-tempo offense would give the young Scarlet Knight defense trouble, but Rutgers did dominate defensively early to take a 17-7 halftime lead. The Bearcats made good adjustments at halftime, though, and kept their undefeated season and Big East title hopes alive with their third-quarter comeback. Mark your calendars for November 3, when Cincinnati travels to South Florida in what could be a very entertaining de facto Big East championship game.

BCS implications: The first BCS poll results don’t get published for another week, but I’ve run a mock BCS calculation to see what teams are front-runners now that USC is (for the moment) out of the way. LSU is far ahead of the pack, but Ohio St and Cal are neck and neck for the #2 and #3 spots. If both teams can stay undefeated for a few more weeks as the season continues to unfold, you could see some very interesting lobbying for votes in the critical coaches poll and Harris poll. At the moment, Cal has the edge among human voters, but the computers like Ohio St a bit more. The #4 and #5 spots are currently occupied by South Florida and Missouri, both significantly behind #3.

And now, with 41.4% reliability, this week’s Hack Poll rankings:

Rank	Team		Wins	Losses	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	LSU		6	0	4.846	6	1	1
2	South Florida		5	0	4.114	31	3	5
3	Missouri		5	0	4.010	35	8	11
4	Arizona St		6	0	3.978	33	7	14
5	Ohio St		6	0	3.654	58	10	3
6	California		5	0	3.457	70	4	2
7	Boston Coll		6	0	3.407	74	9	4
8	South Carolina		5	1	3.307	12	13	7
9	Illinois		5	1	3.306	15	16	18
10	Oregon		4	1	3.237	4	11	9
11	Cincinnati		6	0	3.007	98	21	15
12	Virginia Tech		5	1	2.699	36	27	12
13	Kansas		5	0	2.607	114	33	20
14	Connecticut		5	0	2.541	115	20	34
15	Kentucky		5	1	2.528	53	5	17
16	West Virginia		5	1	2.359	61	22	8
17	Florida St		4	1	2.345	42	14	21
18	Florida		4	2	2.330	2	15	13
19	Wisconsin		5	1	2.256	65	6	19
20	Oklahoma		5	1	2.243	66	30	6
21	Texas A&M		5	1	2.111	77	35	26
22	Wyoming		4	1	2.098	64	34	46
23	Auburn		4	2	2.068	19	32	22
24	Indiana		5	1	2.064	80	25	29
25	Colorado		4	2	2.060	11	38	27
26	Virginia		5	1	2.053	83	23	33
27	Purdue		5	1	1.921	94		28
28	USC		4	1	1.842	75	2	10
29	Nebraska		4	2	1.692	26	12	40
30	Mississippi St		4	2	1.629	24		44
31	Tennessee		3	2	1.593	7		25
32	Georgia		4	2	1.575	29	19	24
33	Hawaii		6	0	1.516	121		16
34	Boise St		3	1	1.477	79		36
35	Wake Forest		3	2	1.450	13		39
36	Alabama		4	2	1.418	43		40
37	Texas		4	2	1.354	44	18	23
38	Texas Tech		5	1	1.285	117		31
39	Kansas St		3	2	1.265	21		35
40	BYU		3	2	1.137	27		42
41	UTEP		4	2	1.108	63
42	Michigan St		4	2	1.073	62	17	44
43	Maryland		4	2	1.049	69
44	Clemson		4	2	1.035	68		37
45	UCLA		4	2	1.004	60	24	46
46	Akron		3	3	0.959	5
47	Tulsa		3	2	0.949	34
48	Rutgers		3	2	0.912	46		32
49	Bowling Green		3	2	0.857	47
50	Air Force		4	2	0.849	86
51	Michigan		4	2	0.730	91		30
52	Fresno St		3	2	0.665	59
53	Penn St		4	2	0.665	102		37
54	Miami FL		4	2	0.644	101
55	Stanford		2	3	0.617	1		43
56	Arkansas		3	2	0.547	71
57	New Mexico		3	2	0.546	73
58	Troy		4	2	0.533	108
59	Oregon St		3	3	0.513	16
60	Oklahoma St		3	3	0.500	22
61	New Mexico St		3	2	0.450	85
62	Georgia Tech		3	3	0.440	25
63	Vanderbilt		3	2	0.383	89
64	East Carolina		3	3	0.355	28
65	Navy		3	2	0.325	92
66	Washington		2	3	0.124	8		46
67	Miami OH		3	3	0.027	55
68	Northwestern		3	3	0.002	56
69	UCF		3	2	-0.013	112
70	West Kentucky		3	2	-0.083	113
71	TCU		3	3	-0.135	67
72	Ball St		3	3	-0.153	76
73	Florida Atlantic		3	3	-0.188	72
74	Army		3	3	-0.268	81
75	Baylor		3	3	-0.291	84
76	Utah		3	3	-0.307	90
77	Cent Michigan		3	3	-0.353	95
78	Kent St		3	3	-0.455	99
79	North Carolina		2	4	-0.490	10
80	Pittsburgh		2	3	-0.498	45
81	San Jose St		3	3	-0.509	107
82	W Michigan		2	4	-0.776	17
83	San Diego St		2	3	-0.789	57
84	Mississippi		2	4	-0.825	20
85	Louisville		3	3	-0.896	118
86	Washington St		2	4	-0.915	30
87	Houston		2	3	-0.935	78
88	Nevada		2	3	-0.970	87
89	UNLV		2	4	-1.054	48
90	Southern Miss		2	3	-1.069	100
91	Arizona		2	4	-1.106	54
92	Arkansas St		2	3	-1.159	105
93	Toledo		2	4	-1.408	88
94	Buffalo		2	4	-1.480	97
95	Ohio		2	4	-1.539	104
96	Iowa		2	4	-1.559	106
97	Minnesota		1	5	-1.698	3
98	Memphis		2	3	-1.752	119
99	East Michigan		2	4	-1.756	116
100	Duke		1	5	-1.764	9
101	LA Monroe		1	4	-1.769	18
102	Notre Dame		1	5	-1.819	14
103	Louisiana Tech		1	4	-1.968	41
104	UAB		1	4	-1.976	40
105	Tulane		1	4	-2.113	49
106	NC St		1	5	-2.197	32
107	Syracuse		1	5	-2.204	38
108	Rice		1	4	-2.286	82
109	Middle Tenn St		1	5	-2.335	52
110	SMU		1	4	-2.413	93
111	Temple		1	5	-2.546	96
112	Iowa St		1	5	-2.655	103
113	Idaho		1	5	-2.723	109
114	Others-Normal		0.579902	5.053431	-2.771	51
115	LA Lafayette		1	5	-2.821	111
116	Northern Illinois		1	5	-3.223	120
117	Utah St		0	6	-3.418	23
118	Florida Intl		0	6	-3.489	37
119	Colorado St		0	5	-3.531	39
120	Marshall		0	5	-3.620	50
121	North Texas		0	5	-3.886	110

Most overrated team: Hawaii (6-0, AP#16, Hack#33). Normally I like to give props to mid-majors, but Hawaii has breezed to its 6-0 start by playing the easiest schedule in the nation. Their four DI-A opponents to date have a combined record of 4-19, and they have played two DI-AA opponents as well. They don’t play a single ranked team all year, and their toughest remaining games are against #52 Fresno St, #34 Boise St, and #66 Washington, all at home. The biggest issue is whether Hawaii will be able to climb high enough in the polls to get in to the BCS, but with a schedule like they have, it’s doubtful (in my mock BCS rankings they came in at #20).

Most underrated team: Wyoming (4-1, AP#46, Hack#22). The Cowboys keep quietly putting together a very quality season. Their matchup on November 17 when they host BYU could be for the Mountain West Conference title.

You may wonder, by the way, why Cal dropped 2 spots in my poll despite the fact that they had the week off, a team above them dropped below them, and the human pollsters all moved Cal up. The reason is that my rankings are based heavily on strength-of-schedule. So when Cal doesn’t play, the only way to adjust their rankings is as a result of what their opponents do. Last Saturday, Cal’s to-date opponents only went 1-3, whereas the to-date opponents of Oregon (also idle, but who moved up 1 spot) were 3-1. In particular, Oregon is benefiting from the resurgence of Michigan (winners of 4 straight) and from Stanford’s upset of USC (the Ducks have already beaten Stanford but have not yet played USC).

Interesting games next week:

(17) Florida St vs. (35) Wake Forest [FSU needs win to stay in ACC title hunt]

(19) Wisconsin vs. (53) Penn St [Good matchup of 2^nd-tier Big-10 teams]

(1) LSU vs. (15) Kentucky [Wildcats try to avoid two straight losses to ranked opponents]

(3) Missouri vs. (20) Oklahoma [After beating Nebraska, this is Mizzou’s biggest remaining obstacle in quest for Big-12 title]

(59) Oregon St vs. (6) California [Bears cannot afford to look past the team that upset USC last year]