Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

How fast the summer has gone, and here we are again two weeks into another year of college football. And with that, of course, comes another year of my completely meaningless yet oddly fascinating computer rankings and peripheral analysis. This week’s edition will be brief for two reasons – I just got back from a long vacation, and since each team has only played a maximum of two games thus far, the reliability of these rankings is only around 3.1%. Nevertheless, I can give out some weekly awards:

Upset of the week: This is less meaningful at this time of the year as I don’t put much stock in pre-season rankings, but this week’s award goes to South Florida’s 26-23 overtime win at Auburn. This is the Bulls’ first-ever victory over an SEC team, and going on the road to any program that had reasonable BCS hopes and coming away with a win is an accomplishment. South Florida has consistently impressed since joining DI-A just a few years ago.

Comeback of the week: Honorable mention to Fresno St, who overcame a 19-0 halftime deficit at Texas A&M to tie the game, only to eventually lose in the 3rd overtime (grr.. I’ll spare you all my annual tirade against the college football overtime system until some later, more opportune time.) The actual award, though, goes to DI-AA Southern Illinois, who overcame a 31-14 4th quarter deficit to Northern Illinois and won by a score of 34-31. Go Salukis!

Yawner of the week: What better way to acknowledge the newest team in DI-A, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, than by awarding them the YotW trophy for their 87-0 demolition of West Virginia Tech. The Hilltoppers scored 7 touchdowns in the first quarter alone; that’s more than are usually seen in an entire SEC game by both teams.

Game of the week: Speaking of the SEC, in a game that featured only 1 touchdown, South Carolina went into Athens and beat Georgia, 16-12. A gritty, tough football game that is likely the harbinger of more of the same this year in that extremely competitive conference.

And now, this week’s ratings, with AP-rankings included for comparison purposes:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

AP

1

LSU

2

0

2.118

2

2

UCLA

2

0

2.102

11

3

Texas

2

0

2.099

6

4

Texas Tech

2

0

2.044

5

USC

1

0

1.900

1

6

Missouri

2

0

1.852

27

7

Wisconsin

2

0

1.773

7

8

Rutgers

2

0

1.770

13

9

South Carolina

2

0

1.434

17

10

Ohio St

2

0

1.422

10

11

Washington

2

0

1.247

29

12

Alabama

2

0

1.226

28

13

Hawaii

2

0

1.226

24

14

Texas A&M

2

0

1.226

25

15

Michigan St

2

0

1.196

16

California

2

0

1.191

8

17

Cincinnati

2

0

1.163

33

18

Kansas

2

0

1.163

35

19

Kentucky

2

0

1.157

20

Florida

2

0

1.116

5

21

Clemson

2

0

1.034

20

22

South Florida

2

0

0.953

26

23

Oklahoma

2

0

0.946

3

24

Wyoming

2

0

0.946

25

Arizona St

2

0

0.943

31

26

UTEP

1

1

0.776

27

Virginia Tech

1

1

0.775

18

28

Arkansas

1

0

0.626

16

29

Tulsa

1

0

0.626

30

Penn St

2

0

0.623

12

31

Nebraska

2

0

0.623

14

32

Boston Coll

2

0

0.623

21

33

UCF

1

0

0.623

34

Bowling Green

1

1

0.614

35

Georgia

1

1

0.610

23

36

Ohio

2

0

0.590

37

Georgia Tech

2

0

0.588

15

38

Maryland

2

0

0.588

39

Northwestern

2

0

0.588

40

Indiana

2

0

0.588

41

Akron

1

1

0.513

42

Mississippi St

1

1

0.496

43

Mississippi

1

1

0.492

44

Washington St

1

1

0.491

45

BYU

1

1

0.489

46

Tennessee

1

1

0.475

22

47

TCU

1

1

0.429

30

48

West Virginia

2

0

0.401

4

49

Air Force

2

0

0.357

50

Purdue

2

0

0.357

35

51

Connecticut

2

0

0.357

52

Louisville

2

0

0.354

9

53

Pittsburgh

2

0

0.354

54

Illinois

1

1

0.308

55

Iowa

2

0

0.240

35

56

Fresno St

1

1

0.194

57

Louisiana Tech

1

1

0.194

58

Vanderbilt

1

1

0.194

59

West Kentucky

1

1

0.156

60

Boise St

1

1

0.156

61

Minnesota

1

1

0.154

62

SMU

1

1

0.150

63

UNLV

1

1

0.145

64

New Mexico

1

1

0.046

65

East Carolina

1

1

0.046

66

Cent Michigan

1

1

0.036

67

Oregon St

1

1

0.036

68

Idaho

1

1

0.023

69

Florida St

1

1

0.003

34

70

Oklahoma St

1

1

0.000

71

Colorado

1

1

0.000

72

Buffalo

1

1

0.000

73

Navy

1

1

0.000

74

Virginia

1

1

-0.002

75

Miami FL

1

1

-0.002

76

Oregon

2

0

-0.134

19

77

Miami OH

1

1

-0.150

78

Kent St

1

1

-0.218

79

Auburn

1

1

-0.243

32

80

Army

1

1

-0.251

81

Arizona

1

1

-0.251

82

Southern Miss

1

1

-0.252

83

New Mexico St

1

1

-0.392

84

North Carolina

1

1

-0.392

85

Florida Atlantic

1

1

-0.513

86

Ball St

1

1

-0.517

87

Baylor

1

1

-0.596

88

Kansas St

1

1

-0.598

89

Stanford

0

1

-0.847

90

Arkansas St

0

1

-0.848

91

Troy

0

2

-0.875

92

LA Monroe

0

2

-0.876

93

Others-Normal

0.22549

1.691176

-0.886

94

LA Lafayette

0

2

-0.898

95

Syracuse

0

2

-0.918

96

Florida Intl

0

2

-0.959

97

Notre Dame

0

2

-0.959

98

Nevada

0

2

-0.959

99

W Michigan

0

2

-0.961

100

Wake Forest

0

2

-0.970

101

NC St

0

2

-0.970

102

Houston

0

1

-0.979

103

North Texas

0

2

-1.136

104

UAB

0

2

-1.136

105

Utah St

0

2

-1.137

106

Colorado St

0

2

-1.137

107

Toledo

0

2

-1.171

108

Utah

0

2

-1.171

109

Duke

0

2

-1.172

110

Marshall

0

2

-1.181

111

San Jose St

0

2

-1.190

112

Middle Tenn St

0

2

-1.224

113

East Michigan

0

2

-1.225

114

Tulane

0

1

-1.333

115

Memphis

0

1

-1.334

116

San Diego St

0

1

-1.334

117

Temple

0

2

-1.334

118

Michigan

0

2

-1.342

119

Northern Illinois

0

2

-1.354

120

Iowa St

0

2

-1.456

121

Rice

0

2

-1.470

As my numbers only have 3.1% reliability, it’s not terribly meaningful to present overrated and underrated team awards at this point. But some interesting teams that have captured attention:

Cincinnati Bearcats (Hack #17, AP#33): The hype in the Big East this year was whether Rutgers could continue to compete at a national level and whether West Virginia would be able to get into the national championship picture. But to do that, they are both going to have to get past an extremely talented Cincinnati Bearcats team. Traditionally a basketball school, Cincinnati has opened eyes to their football program by pounding their opponents this year by a combined score of 93-6, including a 34-3 victory over Oregon St. The bad news for the Bearcats is that they have to face both Rutgers and South Florida on the road.

West Virginia (Hack#48, AP#4), and Louisville (Hack#52, AP#9): Like last year, these two programs are starting off early riding some talent and last year’s hype. Neither team has played anybody of note yet, however. Mark your calendars for October 13, when Louisville plays at Cincinnati.

A strange quirk of my ratings has Oregon, despite their 2-0 start including a victory at Michigan, at #76. This is because their strength-of-schedule is, for the moment, the worst in the country. Their opponents are a combined 0-3, and Michigan actually lost to D-IAA Appalachian St! These numerical anomalies will work themselves out in time, and Oregon should quickly climb close to where the AP has them at #19.

Speaking of Appalachian St, in addition to them being the unanimous #1 in D-IAA they seem to have garnered 19 votes in D-IA AP poll! One has to wonder if the writers forgot that they are not D-IA, or if they simply were that impressed by their victory over Michigan in the Big House a week ago.

Interesting games this week:

(46) Tennessee vs. (20) Florida [Volunteers need this game to get back into spotlight]

(32) Boston College vs. (37) Georgia Tech [Early season statement ACC game]

(5) USC vs. (31) Nebraska [Tough non-conference road test for the Trojans]

(57) Louisiana Tech vs. (16) California [Alumni Band Day. Wave to me on the field!]

3 Comments:

  • Hilltoppers? Seriously?

    By Blogger ljlkc, at 11:55 AM  

  • Hooray! The best poll in College football is back! It's been a great start to the season, I hope the rest of it is as interesting as the first two weeks.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 4:21 AM  

  • What are you kidding me? Eastern Michigan is 113? They're at least 110th, maybe 109th. Come on.

    By Blogger Tim, at 11:47 AM  

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