Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Monday, October 30, 2006

As a well-known tenor saxophonist would say, “Wow! I tell you what, wow!”

The first major shoe has dropped in the BCS framework for 2006-7, and there was a lot more movement in my rankings as well in games that had nothing to do with the Pac-10. But just to keep things orderly, I’ll dive right into the weekly roundup:

Upset of the Week: Honorable mention to Temple, the team that is so bad that it essentially got kicked out of the Big East Conference a couple of years ago, getting its first win of the year, beating Bowling Green by a score of 28-14 and snapping a 20-game losing streak that dated back to 2004. The current owner of the nation’s longest losing streak is Duke (16), followed by Stanford (10). But the real upset of the week belongs to Oregon St, who built up a 23 lead on USC before having to hang on to win 33-31, thwarting a 2-point conversion in the waning seconds to preserve the victory. The Beaver defense forced four Trojan turnovers and their special teams returned a punt for a touchdown en route to the victory. 1-loss USC dropped to #5 in my ratings and #9 in the AP poll, opening the door for another team (West Virginia?, Florida?) to face the winner of the Ohio St – Michigan game in the BCS national championship.

Comeback of the Week: Honorable mention to Wisconsin, who overcame a 21-3 deficit to Illinois before winning 30-24. The Badgers continue to impress as a 2nd-tier Big 10 team, checking into my rankings at #18. The real comeback of the week belongs to Texas, who overcame a 21-0 deficit to Texas Tech in Lubbock before holding Tech scoreless in the second half en route to a 35-31 win. All Big-12 eyes should be looking ahead to the matchup between Texas and Texas A&M on November 24. Both teams are 8-1, and that game should determine who represents the South Division in the Big-12 championship game (though A&M still has to survive Oklahoma before it can officially stay in that discussion).

Yawner of the Week: Ohio St over Minnesota, 44-0. A classic case of two teams headed in very opposite directions. Ohio St is certainly one of the top two teams in the country, undefeated, and looking stronger every week. Minnesota came into the season with high expectations, but they are winless in the Big 10 and looking uninspired.

Game of the Week: Gotta go with Oregon St over USC. On top of it being an earth-shattering upset, it was just a really entertaining game to watch. The emotional swings in the game were incredible – Reser Stadium was rocking as OSU built its lead, dead silent as John David Booty led the Trojans on their comeback, and rocking again as fans rushed the field following the failed 2-point conversion.

Other news: There were a couple of interesting shakeups in my rankings this week beyond that of USC falling to #5. Tennessee leapfrogged Auburn, moving from #8 to #7 while Auburn fell from #7 to #10. This is mostly due to the fact that Tennessee’s victory this weekend was over South Carolina (5-3, #42) while Auburn’s victory was over Mississippi (2-7, #95). The take-home message here, though, is that the top three teams in the SEC are so closely matched as to be virtually indistinguishable, a characteristic that will surely serve as little comfort to the one or two of them that get left out of the BCS in the end (more on that later). Another anomaly this week is that Louisville leapfrogged Rutgers despite the fact that both teams had byes this past weekend (not counting Rutgers’ win over Connecticut on Sunday, a game that occurred too late to be figured into the ratings). The Cardinals jumped from #9 to #4, while the Scarlet Knights dropped from #5 to #8. The best explanation for that is that Louisville’s prior non-conference opponents went 4-1 this past week, while Rutgers’ prior non-conference opponents were 1-3. The take-home message here is that we won’t have a good idea of the relative strengths of the top 3 teams in the Big East until they actually start playing each other, which they finally do this week.

And so, with all of that, here are this week’s numbers:

Rank

Team


Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

Michigan


9

0

6.455

10

2

2

2

Ohio St


9

0

6.384

11

3

1

3

Florida


7

1

5.671

1

4

7

4

Louisville


7

0

5.247

55

9

5

5

USC


6

1

5.163

2

1

9

6

Notre Dame

7

1

5.117

5

6

11

7

Tennessee

7

1

5.047

7

8

8

8

Rutgers


7

0

5.018

76

5

15

9

California


7

1

4.929

13

10

10

10

Auburn


8

1

4.750

19

7

6

11

Boise St


8

0

4.712

88

11

14

12

West Virginia

7

0

4.450

98

14

3

13

Texas


8

1

4.369

33

13

4

14

Boston Coll

7

1

4.008

38

12

16

15

Texas A&M

8

1

3.752

69

16

21

16

Arkansas


7

1

3.579

80

17

12

17

Georgia Tech

6

2

3.561

14

21

20

18

Wisconsin

8

1

3.429

93

18

17

19

Tulsa


7

1

3.282

94

20

26

20

Clemson


7

2

3.190

35

15

19

21

Oklahoma


6

2

3.065

25

27

18

22

Washington St

6

3

2.964

4

24

25

23

Missouri


7

2

2.951

49

19

28

24

LSU


6

2

2.895

32

22

13

25

Virginia Tech

6

2

2.603

57

35

23

26

Oregon


6

2

2.583

59


24

27

Maryland


6

2

2.466

72


30

28

Oregon St


5

3

2.434

6


31

29

Wake Forest

7

1

2.398

116

23

22

30

BYU


6

2

2.276

79


27

31

Penn St


6

3

2.158

24


32

32

Iowa


6

3

2.062

27


34

33

Pittsburgh


6

2

2.039

92


33

34

TCU


5

2

1.794

83



35

Nebraska


6

3

1.788

50

25

29

36

Navy


5

3

1.700

29



37

Ohio


6

3

1.657

64



38

Alabama


6

3

1.587

77


35

39

W Michigan

6

2

1.536

111



40

Oklahoma St

5

3

1.524

36


35

41

Hawaii


5

2

1.515

100


35

42

South Carolina

5

3

1.492

41



43

Georgia


6

3

1.253

91



44

Arizona St

5

3

1.212

71



45

Cent Michigan

5

3

1.203

63



46

Houston


6

3

1.154

97



47

Cincinnati


5

4

0.971

31



48

Middle Tenn St

5

3

0.879

96



49

Indiana


5

4

0.829

28



50

Texas Tech

5

4

0.796

34



51

LA Lafayette

4

3

0.758

60



52

Kansas St

5

4

0.740

43



53

Miami FL


5

3

0.549

106



54

Kentucky


4

4

0.524

22



55

Southern Miss

4

4

0.459

23



56

Washington

4

5

0.344

9



57

Purdue


5

4

0.308

82



58

East Carolina

4

4

0.266

39



59

Nevada


5

3

0.227

112



60

San Jose St

5

2

0.214

120



61

South Florida

5

3

0.207

113



62

UCLA


4

4

0.201

40



63

Florida St


4

4

0.181

42



64

Michigan St

4

5

0.101

15



65

Northern Illinois

5

4

-0.033

101



66

Kent St


5

3

-0.099

117



67

UTEP


4

4

-0.149

68



68

Utah


5

4

-0.159

107



69

Connecticut

3

4

-0.280

30



70

New Mexico

5

4

-0.300

108



71

Idaho


4

4

-0.368

87



72

Arkansas St

5

3

-0.395

119



73

Baylor


4

5

-0.401

44



74

Air Force


3

4

-0.431

26



75

Virginia


4

5

-0.557

62



76

Wyoming


4

5

-0.587

65



77

Vanderbilt


4

5

-0.703

75



78

SMU


4

4

-0.744

109



79

Minnesota

3

6

-0.754

3



80

NC St


3

5

-0.886

37



81

Bowling Green

4

5

-0.899

84



82

Arizona


3

5

-1.066

48



83

Syracuse


3

6

-1.072

18



84

Kansas


4

5

-1.074

99



85

Tulane


3

5

-1.122

45



86

Florida Atlantic

3

5

-1.293

67



87

Colorado St

4

4

-1.357

118



88

Rice


3

5

-1.387

74



89

Troy


3

4

-1.441

110



90

Iowa St


3

6

-1.604

46



91

Marshall


3

5

-1.612

95



92

Akron


3

5

-1.729

102



93

Army


3

6

-1.743

78



94

UAB


3

5

-1.778

105



95

Mississippi

2

7

-2.107

8



96

Toledo


3

6

-2.160

104



97

Louisiana Tech

2

6

-2.194

20



98

Illinois


2

7

-2.332

17



99

Mississippi St

2

7

-2.446

21



100

UCF


2

6

-2.453

53



101

North Texas

2

6

-2.518

61



102

Ball St


3

6

-2.534

115



103

New Mexico St

2

6

-2.703

81



104

Northwestern

2

7

-2.994

73



105

North Carolina

1

7

-3.364

16



106

Fresno St


1

6

-3.427

52



107

San Diego St

1

6

-3.513

51



108

Colorado


1

8

-3.835

56



109

Temple


1

8

-3.843

47



110

Utah St


1

7

-3.867

70



111

LA Monroe

1

7

-3.954

85



112

UNLV


1

7

-3.980

90



113

Memphis


1

7

-4.016

86



114

Buffalo


1

7

-4.061

89



115

East Michigan

1

7

-4.095

103



116

Others-Normal

0.76161

7.507298

-4.126

58



117

Miami OH


1

8

-4.477

114



118

Stanford


0

8

-4.755

12



119

Florida Intl

0

8

-5.081

54



120

Duke


0

8

-5.155

66



Most overrated team: After watching them struggle, particularly defensively in the first half, against Texas Tech this past weekend, I’m going to say Texas (8-1, AP#4, Hack#13). This also leads into my saying that:

Most underrated team: Texas A&M (8-1, AP#21, Hack#15). The game between these two teams the day after Thanksgiving should be fun to watch.

BCS implications: Most people are saying that the team that benefits the most from USC’s loss to Oregon St is West Virginia. While it may be true that the Mountaineers have the inside track to the championship game, they still have three tough games on their schedule before they can punch their ticket to Tempe. In my opinion, the real beneficiary of the Trojan loss is Auburn. Had USC run the table and faced the Big 10 champion in the championship game, it’s likely that the Rose Bowl would have selected Cal to face the loser of the Michigan-Ohio St game, and there would have been no at-large team from the SEC in the BCS. With USC’s loss, now it is likely that the winner of the USC-Cal game will go to the Rose Bowl and the loser will be relegated to the Holiday Bowl, opening up a BCS at-large spot for an SEC team, most likely Auburn.

Interesting games this week:

(12) West Virginia vs. (4) Louisville [Finally we get to see these teams play each other]

(27) Maryland vs. (20) Clemson [Sorry I couldn’t rank the Terps higher, Adi]

(24) LSU vs. (7) Tennessee [Volunteers clinging to slim division title hopes]

(21) Oklahoma vs. (15) Texas A&M [Defining game for Aggies]

(62) UCLA vs. (9) California [Bears look to avenge last year’s loss to Bruins]

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