Apologies for the lack of updates for the past couple of weeks. My Thanksgiving vacation and the activities surrounding the Big Game trumped it, plus of course the fact that Cal lost its chance to go to the Rose Bowl reduced the luster of my outlook on college football a bit. Nevertheless, with Cal retaining the AXE for the 5^th straight year, a feat that had not been previously accomplished in my lifetime, I am back!

Even so, as I predicted (and as Ed wanted to make sure happened), Cal did suffer the Stanford Curse this past weekend – in playing a team with such an abysmal rating Cal dropped two spots in my ratings even though they won.

As for the BCS, thankfully the voters got it right. The discussion will probably never end as to whether Michigan or Florida was more deserving of a chance to face Ohio St for the national title, but the fact remains that the Wolverines already had a shot at the Buckeyes whereas the Gators have not. Also I would like to point out that somehow or other 1-loss Louisville got left out of the discussion about which 1-loss team deserved to play for the title altogether, despite the fact that they beat West Virginia. But in my opinion the Florida-Ohio St matchup is the fairest possible outcome for an inherently unfair BCS system.

Now to the weekend recap:

Upset of the week: No question about it, UCLA watched the tape of the USC-Oregon St game closely and employed OSU’s strategy to shut down the Trojans even better than the Beavers did. UCLA’s 13-9 victory over USC knocked the Trojans out of the national championship game. Anyone who would like to thank the Bruins will have that opportunity, as they will be visiting San Francisco for the Emerald Bowl.

Comeback of the week: Gotta go with Florida. They built up a 17-0 lead in the SEC championship game only to watch Arkansas run off 21 straight points to take the lead. The Gators regrouped and went on to a 38-28 victory, winning the SEC title and impressing the human voters enough to be vaulted into the national championship game.

Yawner of the week: Louisville’s 48-17 win over Connecticut was not exactly a yawner, but the Huskies were clearly overmatched. Were it not for Wake Forest and Boise St, Louisville would be this year’s Cinderella at the BCS ball.

Game of the week: I almost didn’t pick this game on general principle, given how much I hate the college football overtime system, but the Rutgers-West Virginia game had too much on the line to ignore. The Mountaineers won in triple-overtime, 41-39. The funny thing is that Rutgers had a few chances to put the game away late in the fourth quarter and first overtime, but Rutgers coach Greg Schiano seemed to get a little too conservative with his play-calling down the stretch. Even so, it took a great defensive play on a 2-point conversion attempt for West Virginia to preserve its victory over the Scarlett Knights, knocking the Knights out of the Orange Bowl and sending them instead to the *gulp* Texas Bowl!

And now, the final regular season ratings:

Rank Team Wins Losses Value STR Last AP

1 Ohio St 12 0 8.036 32 1 1

2 Florida 12 1 7.800 3 4 2

3 Michigan 11 1 7.674 5 3 3

4 Louisville 11 1 7.070 19 5 5

5 Boise St 12 0 6.686 92 6 9

6 USC 10 2 6.569 2 2 8

7 LSU 10 2 6.107 10 7 4

8 Auburn 10 2 5.737 22 10 10

9 Notre Dame 10 2 5.693 24 9 11

10 Oklahoma 11 2 5.449 39 15 7

11 West Virginia 10 2 5.403 33 16 13

12 Rutgers 10 2 5.272 43 8 16

13 Wisconsin 11 1 5.249 97 11 6

14 Tennessee 9 3 4.994 6 14 17

15 Virginia Tech 10 2 4.985 60 13 14

16 Arkansas 10 3 4.652 27 12 12

17 Wake Forest 11 2 4.621 81 20 15

18 Texas 9 3 4.475 21 17 18

19 BYU 10 2 4.317 84 19 19

20 California 9 3 4.280 25 18 20

21 Boston Coll 9 3 3.797 51 24 23

22 Texas A&M 9 3 3.746 57 21 21

23 Oregon St 9 4 3.662 20 27 24

24 TCU 10 2 3.460 114 26 25

25 Nebraska 9 4 3.269 35 22 22

26 Houston 10 3 3.144 91 29

27 Hawaii 10 3 3.112 95 23 28

28 Georgia Tech 9 4 3.071 53 25 27

29 Penn St 8 4 2.873 40 30

30 Clemson 8 4 2.759 47 31

31 Maryland 8 4 2.744 49

32 Georgia 8 4 2.546 58 26

33 UCLA 7 5 2.528 4 35

34 Missouri 8 4 2.489 56

35 South Carolina 7 5 2.353 8 34

36 Cincinnati 7 5 2.335 11

37 Cent Michigan 9 4 2.323 83

38 Kentucky 7 5 2.214 13

39 Tulsa 8 4 2.169 74

40 South Florida 8 4 2.163 77 31

41 Navy 9 3 2.007 119 33

42 Oregon 7 5 1.848 29

43 Southern Miss 8 5 1.642 66

44 Ohio 9 4 1.518 111

45 Arizona St 7 5 1.428 55

46 Nevada 8 4 1.393 103

47 Texas Tech 7 5 1.372 50

48 Purdue 8 5 1.365 78

49 Arizona 6 6 1.169 9

50 Rice 7 5 1.153 64

51 W Michigan 8 4 1.141 112

52 Kansas St 7 5 1.054 72

53 San Jose St 8 4 1.022 118

54 Washington St 6 6 0.852 16

55 East Carolina 7 5 0.850 79

56 Florida St 6 6 0.836 14

57 Middle Tenn St 7 5 0.805 85

58 Oklahoma St 6 6 0.801 18

59 Minnesota 6 6 0.790 17

60 Utah 7 5 0.688 90

61 Alabama 6 6 0.305 44

62 Iowa 6 6 0.220 48

63 Pittsburgh 6 6 0.151 54

64 Northern Illinois 7 5 0.119 110

65 Miami FL 6 6 0.084 65

66 Troy 7 5 -0.076 116

67 Washington 5 7 -0.120 7

68 Kansas 6 6 -0.423 88

69 Wyoming 6 6 -0.451 86

70 SMU 6 6 -0.646 94

71 Indiana 5 7 -0.857 34

72 New Mexico 6 6 -0.863 100

73 LA Lafayette 6 6 -0.896 107

74 Arkansas St 6 6 -1.145 117

75 Virginia 5 7 -1.192 68

76 Connecticut 4 8 -1.569 12

77 Kent St 6 6 -1.656 120

78 Syracuse 4 8 -1.689 15

79 Marshall 5 7 -1.706 93

80 UTEP 5 7 -1.902 99

81 Akron 5 7 -1.903 101

82 Mississippi 4 8 -1.927 26

83 Florida Atlantic 5 7 -1.988 108

84 Ball St 5 7 -1.988 102

85 Vanderbilt 4 8 -2.050 36

86 Tulane 4 8 -2.060 42

87 Baylor 4 8 -2.081 45

88 Michigan St 4 8 -2.106 38

89 Air Force 4 8 -2.145 46

90 Toledo 5 7 -2.189 115

91 Fresno St 4 8 -2.353 63

92 Iowa St 4 8 -2.410 69

93 Northwestern 4 8 -2.439 62

94 UCF 4 8 -2.532 73

95 Idaho 4 8 -2.766 87

96 LA Monroe 4 8 -3.072 106

97 Mississippi St 3 9 -3.083 23

98 NC St 3 9 -3.103 37

99 Colorado St 4 8 -3.138 105

100 North Carolina 3 9 -3.236 31

101 New Mexico St 4 8 -3.240 109

102 Bowling Green 4 8 -3.306 113

103 Army 3 9 -3.601 70

104 UAB 3 9 -3.647 76

105 San Diego St 3 9 -3.763 75

106 Louisiana Tech 3 10 -4.020 71

107 North Texas 3 9 -4.112 104

108 Illinois 2 10 -4.485 28

109 Colorado 2 10 -4.672 61

110 Buffalo 2 10 -4.853 67

111 UNLV 2 10 -5.018 80

112 Stanford 1 11 -5.047 1

113 Memphis 2 10 -5.089 89

114 Miami OH 2 10 -5.207 98

115 Utah St 1 11 -5.763 30

116 Temple 1 11 -5.856 41

117 Others-Normal 1.08 11.03-5.888 59

118 East Michigan 1 11 -6.176 82

119 Duke 0 12 -7.325 52

120 Florida Intl 0 12 -7.614 96

Most overrated team: Wisconsin (11-1, AP#6, Hack#13): Okay, I get the fact that Wisconsin’s only loss was to Michigan and that they went 11-1 in one of the major power conferences in the country. That having been said, they played the 24^th easiest schedule in the country, the highest ranked team they beat was #29 Penn St, and their non-conference opponents were #102 Bowling Green, #117 Western Illinois, and #105 San Diego St. To their credit, the Badgers scheduled Bowling Green and San Diego St when both teams were better than they are now, but nevertheless Wisconsin has one more loss against an easier schedule than Boise St and yet is ranked higher than the Broncos by human pollsters.

Most underrated team: Rutgers (10-2, AP#16, Hack#12): The Scarlett Knights are more underrated in their bowl matchup than in the actual ratings. How much is a 2-point conversion worth? In this case, it is the difference between facing #17 Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl and facing #52 Kansas St in the Texas Bowl. Hopefully Rutgers won’t feel too snubbed and let themselves get surprised by the Wildcats the way that Texas did earlier this year. Rutgers needs a bowl win to put an exclamation point on this season and keep their school, as well as their conference, in the national spotlight.

Wishful thinking playoff scenarios:

Make no mistake about it – there is a playoff in Division I-A college football. It’s just that only 2 teams make it to the playoffs. This year, as I said earlier, if you are going to limit the field to 2 teams, the correct two teams were picked in my opinion

4-team playoff: Were the field to expand to four teams, using my ratings the field would have Ohio St, Florida, Louisville, and Boise St. Michigan would not get in – I’m not opposed to the idea of wild cards but I do believe that highly ranked conference champions should get precedence. Using BCS rankings instead of my own, USC would replace Boise St in the field of 4.

8-team playoff: In my opinion the most reasonable option. Few enough teams would get in to keep most of the meaning in the regular season, but enough teams would get in so that no one would feel slighted. Using my rankings, the 8-team field would include Ohio St, Florida, Louisville, Boise St, USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Note the conspicuous absence of Wake Forest – in my system no conferences get any automatic bids; the conference champion needs to have some minimum ratings standards. Also note that LSU is not in the field – for me it was pretty much a toss-up between LSU and Notre Dame for the final spot and I gave the nod to the Irish because LSU failed to win a conference championship whereas the Irish had no such opportunity. Using BCS ratings instead of my own, LSU would get into the field instead of Notre Dame.

16-team playoff: Some people are still clamoring for a 16-team playoff, an option which (in my opinion) would dilute the regular season too much and put too much pressure on the amateur athletes (they are just amateurs, remember, at least everywhere except for USC…), forcing some of them to play as many as 18 games in a season – more than most NFL teams. Were this to be the format, I would include the eight teams listed above plus Wake Forest, LSU, BYU, Auburn, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Houston, and Rutgers. That’s 9 out of 11 conference champions (sorry Central Michigan and Troy), 1 independent, and 2 wild cards each from the SEC, Big-10, and Big East Conferences. Using BCS standings instead of my own, the field would be the same except that Virginia Tech would sneak into the field instead of Rutgers.

Wishful thinking bowl matchup: #42 Oregon vs. #62 Iowa. Both of these teams were highly touted at the beginning of the year and were expected to challenge the elite teams in their respective conferences. Both teams were blown out by their respective conference elites and went on to finish mediocre seasons. It would be interesting to see which of these two underachievers would be able to regroup to win in this bowl matchup.

But instead, we’re left with the following:

(64) Northern Illinois vs. (24) TCU [Horned Frogs should dominate the Poinsettia Bowl]

(42) Oregon vs. (19) BYU [Las Vegas Bowl: Do the Ducks have any motivation left?]

(50) Rice vs. (66) Troy [New Orleans Bowl: Potential yawner of the week…]

(40) South Florida vs. (55) East Carolina [Papa John’s Bowl: no, I’m not making this up]

(53) San Jose St vs. (72) New Mexico [New Mexico Bowl: First bowl game for Spartans in a goodly long time]

(60) Utah vs. (39) Tulsa [Armed Forces Bowl: Where did all these new bowls come from?]

(45) Arizona St vs. (27) Hawaii [Hawaii Bowl: Nice reward for finishing 5^th in the Pac-10]

(37) Central Michigan vs. (57) Middle Tennessee St [Motor City Bowl: Go Chippewas!]

(33) UCLA vs. (56) Florida St [Emerald Bowl: 2 teams that underachieved this year]

(58) Oklahoma St vs. (61) Alabama [Independence Bowl: Battle of .500 teams]

(12) Rutgers vs. (52) Kansas St [Texas Bowl: Scarlet Knights deserved better than this]

(22) Texas A&M vs. (20) California [Holiday Bowl: First bowl featuring 2 ranked teams]

(30) Clemson vs. (38) Kentucky [Music City Bowl: Wildcats were a pleasant surprise this year]

(23) Oregon St vs. (34) Missouri [Sun Bowl: Mizzou underachieved this year]

(26) Houston vs. (35) South Carolina [Liberty Bowl: Good solid matchup for C-USA winner Houston]

(47) Texas Tech vs. (59) Minnesota [Insight Bowl: The best team the Gophers beat all year was #62 Iowa]

(48) Purdue vs. (31) Maryland [Champs Sports Bowl: Terps showed flashes of brilliance this year]

(41) Navy vs. (21) Boston College [Meineke Bowl: Disappointing end to promising season for the Eagles]

(62) Iowa vs. (18) Texas [Alamo Bowl: We’d expect this game to be a laugher if the Longhorn’s quarterback, Colt McCoy, wasn’t hurt]

(15) Virginia Tech vs. (32) Georgia [Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Hokies came on strong at the end]

(65) Miami FL vs. (46) Nevada [Nevada Bowl: Larry Coker’s last game as Hurricane head coach]

(14) Tennessee vs. (29) Penn St [Outback Bowl: Battle of average teams in good conferences that might be champions in any other conference]

(8) Auburn vs. (25) Nebraska [Cotton Bowl: Auburn was the only team to beat Florida this year]

(16) Arkansas vs. (13) Wisconsin [Capital One Bowl: Two good teams hampered by weak schedules]

(28) Georgia Tech vs. (11) West Virginia [Gator Bowl: Remember all those voters that kept voting the Mountaineers #1?]

(6) USC vs. (3) Michigan [Rose Bowl: Blast you, Arizona!]

(5) Boise St vs. (10) Oklahoma [Fiesta Bowl: Both teams a mild surprise to make it to BCS this year]

(17) Wake Forest vs. (4) Louisville [Orange Bowl: Both teams pretty big surprises to make the BCS this year]

(9) Notre Dame vs. (7) LSU [Sugar Bowl: Easily the biggest revenue bowl outside of the national championship game this year]

(51) Western Michigan vs. (36) Cincinnati [International Bowl: Why are there non-BCS bowls after the new year?]

(44) Ohio vs. (43) Southern Miss [GMAC Bowl: Ditto…]

(2) Florida vs. (1) Ohio St. [National Championship Game]

Interesting P.S. The President of Florida University recently made a statement that he is going to encourage the presidents of the other SEC schools to pull out of the BCS at the conclusion of the current contract so as to try to force the other conferences to develop a national playoff system. Such a system would not come into effect until at least 2010, but it could be interesting to watch it develop.