Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

My small and insignificant blog seems to be attracting attention from sources I had not predicted – I recently was delighted to find out that I have an alumnus and fan of Eastern Michigan reading my blog. Sadly, when he found my page, the Eagles were 0-2 and ranked #113. However, they are now riding a 2-game winning streak and have jumped up to #85! So to Tim, I say, Welcome and Go Eagles!

As an alumnus of U.C. Berkeley I, of course, have been rightfully trained to despise everything that has to do with USC (sorry, Ed). However, I do have to give the Trojans credit for a classy thing they did a couple of weeks ago:

Navy precision flying teams have a maneuver called the “Missing Man Formation”, used to honor a fallen comrade. A group of fighter jets will fly in a tight formation, and then one plane will suddenly change course and fly straight up (or, if the maneuver is completed at sunset, straight west into the setting sun) while the remaining planes continue in the same formation, missing one member, until they are out of sight. After its first touchdown in its game against Idaho a couple of weeks ago, USC performed a variation of the Missing Man. They lined up for the extra point with 9 blockers and the holder but no kicker, this to honor their previous place kicker who had been killed in an accident the previous winter. They stayed in this formation without snapping the ball until the play clock expired and took a delay-of-game penalty, after which the new kicker came on the field and kicked the extra point. The crowd reaction was appreciative as the realization of the tribute sank in slowly. This is the kind of true team spirit that makes me proud to be a college football fan. For a video replay of the event, tune to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD2U9J4Nwj8.

And now, the weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Quick honorable mention to Ball St, who came 1 point short in their bid to upset Nebraska (and who should have completed the upset – a sure touchdown pass in their final drive slipped off the fingers of the wide open receiver at the 10-yard-line). Contrary to last week, however, this week’s top upset is easy to pick. Louisville was a 36.5 point favorite over Syracuse, but the Orange were able to take advantage of Louisville’s atrocious pass defense en route to a 38-35 upset at Louisville. There were several big plays for the Orange, including a 79-yard touchdown pass where the receiver was so wide open and so far behind the defensive secondary that he had time to stop and wave his arms to call for the ball to be thrown. Louisville will continue to put up big offensive numbers this year, but unless they can do something about their pass defense, teams like Cincinnati and Rutgers will have big days against them.

Comeback of the week: Wyoming found themselves down 20-6 at halftime and 30-20 in the 4th quarter to Ohio, but managed to score 2 late touchdowns to eek out a 34-33 win. The Cowboys are off to a good 3-1 start, a #33 ranking in the Hack Poll, and they have a win over surprisingly good Virginia under their belts. They should provide a good challenge to several teams including BYU for the Mountain West Conference title, and they host BYU on November 17.

Yawner of the week: As usual, there are lots of candidates for this award. I’m going with Virginia Tech’s 44-3 win over College of William and Mary, a game in which they scored 27 in the first quarter and led at halftime by a score of 41-3. The Hokies open up their conference schedule next week against North Carolina, but the big game they have to pay attention to is when they visit Clemson in 2 weeks.

Game of the week: Most experts are looking at Georgia’s overtime win over Alabama as the significant game of this past weekend. In my mind, however, Kentucky’s win at Arkansas is far more intriguing. The Wildcats outscored the Razorbacks 28-9 in the second half en route to a 42-29 victory, completing their second straight road upset of a highly touted team in the process. Moreover, the biggest question mark for Kentucky coming into the game was their run defense, but they shut down the Arkansas attack at several key times in the game allowing their offense to take control in the second half. Kentucky seems to be for real; next week they should be favored to beat an improving but still very upstart Florida Atlantic squad.

And now, with 11.5% reliability, the week 4 rankings (last week’s rankings and this week’s AP rankings included for comparison):

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

LSU

4

0

3.386

6

4

2

2

USC

3

0

3.030

21

3

1

3

Florida

4

0

3.006

24

5

4

4

Oregon

4

0

2.804

35

13

11

5

Ohio St

4

0

2.465

60

9

8

6

Wisconsin

4

0

2.393

65

12

9

7

Texas

4

0

2.375

69

1

7

8

Missouri

4

0

2.310

73

10

20

9

Michigan St

4

0

2.300

78

2

28

10

Arizona St

4

0

2.296

75

34

23

11

Boston Coll

4

0

2.284

77

8

12

12

Oklahoma

4

0

2.207

85

27

3

13

Kentucky

4

0

2.101

90

6

14

14

California

4

0

2.082

88

15

6

15

Clemson

4

0

1.859

97

16

13

16

Nebraska

3

1

1.854

12

33

25

17

South Florida

3

0

1.810

104

25

18

18

Rutgers

3

0

1.748

105

18

10

19

Hawaii

4

0

1.744

107

17

19

20

West Virginia

4

0

1.693

109

22

5

21

Georgia

3

1

1.667

25

44

15

22

Connecticut

4

0

1.542

112

32

36

23

Mississippi St

3

1

1.515

38

42

24

Illinois

3

1

1.511

43

57

25

Cincinnati

4

0

1.500

113

11

24

26

Purdue

4

0

1.479

114

26

27

Florida St

2

1

1.450

9

34

28

Alabama

3

1

1.356

46

7

22

29

South Carolina

3

1

1.354

53

21

16

30

Virginia Tech

3

1

1.339

50

20

17

31

Tulsa

2

1

1.253

17

19

32

Kansas

4

0

1.200

120

33

33

Wyoming

3

1

1.187

67

34

Miami FL

3

1

1.182

66

27

35

Indiana

3

1

1.144

63

23

36

Virginia

3

1

1.103

71

37

37

Tennessee

2

2

1.082

1

38

38

UCF

2

1

1.074

36

35

39

UCLA

3

1

1.071

62

29

40

Houston

2

1

0.974

39

41

Boise St

2

1

0.870

52

42

Air Force

3

1

0.834

91

14

43

West Kentucky

3

1

0.688

102

44

Texas A&M

3

1

0.670

98

30

45

Washington

2

2

0.664

5

46

New Mexico

3

1

0.653

101

47

Bowling Green

2

1

0.631

82

48

Oklahoma St

2

2

0.616

13

49

Texas Tech

3

1

0.590

106

24

50

Washington St

2

2

0.560

11

51

Vanderbilt

2

1

0.541

86

52

TCU

2

2

0.518

20

53

Wake Forest

2

2

0.477

18

54

Pittsburgh

2

2

0.447

23

55

Akron

2

2

0.447

19

56

Auburn

2

2

0.401

54

57

BYU

2

2

0.397

29

58

Oregon St

2

2

0.327

33

59

Florida Atlantic

3

1

0.286

117

60

Southern Miss

2

1

0.270

99

61

Baylor

3

1

0.266

118

62

UNLV

2

2

0.241

42

63

Penn St

3

1

0.108

121

21

64

Colorado

2

2

0.080

47

65

Kansas St

2

1

0.059

115

66

UTEP

2

2

0.024

64

67

Troy

2

2

0.014

56

68

Arkansas

1

2

-0.050

3

32

69

Ball St

2

2

-0.074

72

70

Georgia Tech

2

2

-0.095

74

71

New Mexico St

2

2

-0.100

80

72

Kent St

2

2

-0.166

83

73

Michigan

2

2

-0.206

84

30

74

Northwestern

2

2

-0.248

87

75

Maryland

2

2

-0.292

92

76

Navy

2

2

-0.297

94

77

Louisiana Tech

1

2

-0.326

10

78

Ohio

2

2

-0.360

96

79

Stanford

1

2

-0.389

14

80

Iowa

2

2

-0.431

103

81

Fresno St

1

2

-0.528

27

82

Louisville

2

2

-0.529

108

83

UAB

1

2

-0.544

31

84

Arkansas St

1

2

-0.578

34

85

East Michigan

2

2

-0.579

110

86

Mississippi

1

3

-0.594

2

87

San Diego St

1

2

-0.706

45

88

W Michigan

1

3

-0.763

8

89

NC St

1

3

-0.776

7

90

Tulane

1

2

-0.821

68

91

Utah

1

3

-0.841

30

92

Duke

1

3

-0.845

26

93

East Carolina

1

3

-0.927

32

94

Minnesota

1

3

-0.963

40

95

Nevada

1

2

-0.980

89

96

Arizona

1

3

-1.078

44

97

Syracuse

1

3

-1.086

51

98

Miami OH

1

3

-1.120

55

99

Army

1

3

-1.155

49

100

Toledo

1

3

-1.157

59

101

Buffalo

1

3

-1.188

76

102

Cent Michigan

1

3

-1.188

57

103

Memphis

1

2

-1.252

111

104

North Carolina

1

3

-1.271

79

105

San Jose St

1

3

-1.330

81

106

Idaho

1

3

-1.446

95

107

SMU

1

3

-1.499

93

108

Iowa St

1

3

-1.662

116

109

Northern Illinois

1

3

-1.749

119

110

Others-Normal

0.435109

3.356557

-1.839

61

111

LA Monroe

0

3

-2.080

4

112

Middle Tenn St

0

4

-2.216

15

113

Colorado St

0

3

-2.222

16

114

Florida Intl

0

4

-2.239

28

115

Marshall

0

4

-2.301

22

116

Notre Dame

0

4

-2.319

37

117

Utah St

0

4

-2.382

41

118

Rice

0

4

-2.406

48

119

North Texas

0

3

-2.407

58

120

Temple

0

4

-2.439

70

121

LA Lafayette

0

4

-2.606

100

Most overrated team: Penn St (3-1, AP#21, Hack#63). The Nittany Lions were favored to go into the Big House and beat Michigan, and they might have done so if they had been able to open up the offense a bit more. Playing a defensive struggle played right into the Wolverines hands, however, and Michigan prevailed 14-9. Penn St continues to be ranked by AP voters, but they have played the weakest schedule in the nation to date. Their next game is at the pleasantly surprising Illinois (3-1, Hack#24), but they probably won’t crack my radar unless they manage to beat Wisconsin (4-0, Hack#6) in three weeks.

Most underrated team: Michigan St (4-0, AP#28, Hack#9). The Spartans dropped 7 spots in my poll this past week merely by playing a winless team (Notre Dame); that is, the strength-of-schedule hit they took more than offset the benefit they achieved by winning a game. They are still playing extremely well, though, and will have their biggest test of the year next week when they visit Wisconsin.

Interesting games next week:

(20) West Virginia vs. (17) South Florida [Bulls are devastatingly tough at home]

(23) Mississippi St vs. (29) South Carolina [After beating Auburn, Bulldogs looking for another tough road SEC win]

(9) Michigan St vs. (6) Wisconsin [Badgers face Michigan St, Illinois, and Penn St the next three weeks]

(14) California vs. (4) Oregon [Winner of this game most likely candidate to challenge USC for Pac-10 title]

2 Comments:

  • If you mix the Orange and the Cardinal, do you get the Burnt Umber?

    By Blogger ljlkc, at 12:06 PM  

  • Seriously, we have got to watch Cal vs. Oregon. I think the Wicklinds are willing to tivo it for us!

    By Blogger Unknown, at 2:17 PM  

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