Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Apologies for the lack of an update last week – I was fighting a rather severe case of bronchitis. But it’s good to be back, and just in time for Crunch Time in college football. First the weekly awards:

Upset of the Week: Illinois’ 28-21 win at Ohio St. The Buckeyes had been cruising and seemed to be a lock to reach their annual showdown with Michigan undefeated and with a trip to the BCS championship on the line. Now the Ohio St – Michigan game is just for a trip to the Rose Bowl, and that opens up the BCS championship to other contenders (Oregon?, West Virginia?, Oklahoma?)

Comeback of the Week: Rice scored 16 points in the fourth quarter to come back and beat SMU, 43-42. With the win, the Owls kept their extremely slim hopes of a Conference USA title alive.

Yawner of the Week: This was a big surprise. Virginia has won five games by a margin of two or fewer points this season, an NCAA record, and were favored by a similarly slim margin over Miami. I would venture to say that no one expected them to lay a 48-0 shellacking on the Hurricanes in Miami’s final home game ever at the Orange Bowl, but that is exactly what they did. The Cavaliers have two week’s to prepare for their winner-take-all battle with Virginia Tech.

Game of the Week: There were several good candidates for this award. I’m going with Arizona St’s 24-20 win over UCLA. With the loss, UCLA was essentially eliminated from the Pac-10 race; Oregon is free and clear to punch it’s own ticket to the BCS. With the win, Arizona St kept alive its very real quest for a BCS at-large bid.

BCS Watch: There are 14 teams left who control their destiny for one of the six automatic bids to the BCS, and now that we are down to Crunch Time, there are eight identifiable Crunch Games that will determine these six spots. In chronological order, those games are:

November 17: Ohio St vs. Michigan. Winner wins the Big 10 and goes to the Rose Bowl.

November 17: Boston Coll vs. Clemson. Winner wins a trip to the ACC championship game.

November 24: Connecticut vs. West Virginia. Winner most likely wins the Big East and goes to the BCS. Connecticut still has to play Syracuse however, while West Virginia still has to play Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. If UConn and WVU both lose one of their remaining games, it opens the door for Pittsburgh or Cincinnati to sneak into the BCS.

November 24: Virginia Tech vs. Virginia. Winner wins a trip to the ACC championship game.

November 24: Missouri vs. Kansas. Winner wins a trip to the Big-12 championship game.

December 1: ACC championship: Boston College – Clemson winner versus Virginia Tech – Virginia winner.

December 1: Big-12 championship: MissouriKansas winner versus (most likely) Oklahoma. OU just needs to win one of its remaining two games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma St to get to the Big-12 championship game.

December 1: SEC championship: LSU versus (most likely) Tennessee. LSU has already clinched its trip to the championship, but Tennessee still has to win both of their remaining games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. If the Volunteers stumble, it opens the door for any one of a number of potential challengers: Georgia, Kentucky, or Florida.

WAC Watch: Hawaii is currently 16th in the BCS (Harris #11, ESPN #12, Computer #26), while Boise St is 18th in the BCS (Harris #15, ESPN #15, Computer #25). It’s still very questionable as to whether either team can jump to the necessary #12 ranking to garner a trip to the Sugar Bowl. The good news for these teams, however, is that the computer average for the winner of the Boise St – Hawaii game on November 23 is likely to jump several spots, and that might just give that team the necessary lift to get to New Orleans. One other caveat: both Hawaii and Boise St will be rooting hard for Michigan to beat Ohio St this weekend – if the Wolverines prevail then the BoiseHawaii winner only has to finish ahead of Michigan in the top-16 of the BCS to get to the Sugar Bowl.

BCS Pie-in-the-sky Predictions: Stewart Mandel (Sports Illustrated College Football Analyst) made an interesting observation recently. The Texas Longhorns are playing well of late and have climbed to #13 in the BCS (at-large teams must be #14 or higher). If the Longhorns win out they could be an attractive candidate to a bowl selection committee, even though their might be two other Big-12 teams ahead of them in the BCS rankings, because of their recent winning streak and their high traveling fan base. With that possibility in mind, I’m going with the following:

Rose Bowl: Ohio St vs. Arizona St

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii

Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. Texas

Championship: LSU vs. Oregon

And now, the rankings:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

LSU

9

1

6.306

8

1

1

2

Oregon

8

1

6.189

6

2

2

3

Kansas

10

0

5.599

90

4

4

4

Arizona St

9

1

5.376

41

5

9

5

Missouri

9

1

5.140

55

8

6

6

Ohio St

10

1

5.133

62

3

7

7

Oklahoma

9

1

4.875

68

6

3

8

West Virginia

8

1

4.815

64

10

5

9

Georgia

8

2

4.493

16

11

8

10

Virginia Tech

8

2

4.302

35

12

10

11

Florida

7

3

4.248

1

15

14

12

Texas

9

2

4.008

57

16

12

13

Virginia

9

2

3.960

54

14

16

14

Connecticut

8

2

3.840

52

9

25

15

Clemson

8

2

3.810

53

22

15

16

Cincinnati

8

2

3.764

50

25

21

17

Hawaii

9

0

3.682

121

19

13

18

Boston Coll

8

2

3.677

63

7

18

19

Boise St

9

1

3.549

113

13

17

20

Illinois

8

3

3.548

23

27

20

21

South Florida

7

3

3.300

19

20

29

22

Tennessee

7

3

3.288

13

23

19

23

Penn St

8

3

3.244

37

18

26

24

Wisconsin

8

3

3.185

40

32

24

25

USC

8

2

3.172

81

30

11

26

Kentucky

7

3

3.074

29

22

27

BYU

7

2

2.846

86

28

28

Michigan

8

3

2.841

49

17

23

29

UCF

7

3

2.379

67

30

Auburn

7

4

2.237

44

24

27

31

Alabama

6

4

2.182

9

21

34

32

California

6

4

2.147

11

30

33

Mississippi St

6

4

2.067

15

31

34

Air Force

8

3

1.981

102

33

35

Troy

7

3

1.893

88

36

Tulsa

7

3

1.878

92

37

Florida St

6

4

1.864

25

38

Oregon St

6

4

1.794

31

39

Purdue

7

4

1.740

60

40

New Mexico

7

3

1.710

96

41

Wake Forest

6

4

1.702

33

42

Utah

7

3

1.598

99

43

Rutgers

6

4

1.583

45

44

South Carolina

6

5

1.403

12

45

Georgia Tech

6

4

1.338

61

46

Texas A&M

6

5

1.277

17

47

Oklahoma St

5

5

1.106

7

48

Michigan St

6

5

1.063

30

49

Texas Tech

7

4

1.057

95

50

Fresno St

6

4

1.032

78

51

Arkansas

6

4

0.963

76

32

52

NC St

5

5

0.778

14

53

Nebraska

5

6

0.699

5

54

Cent Michigan

6

4

0.671

84

55

Maryland

5

5

0.656

24

56

Louisville

5

5

0.588

26

57

East Carolina

6

5

0.519

66

58

Indiana

6

5

0.429

71

59

Iowa

6

5

0.429

73

60

Houston

6

4

0.356

108

61

Colorado

5

6

0.343

10

62

Wyoming

5

5

0.342

42

63

Vanderbilt

5

5

0.329

43

64

Bowling Green

6

4

0.326

107

65

UCLA

5

5

0.219

46

66

Northwestern

6

5

0.168

80

67

Kansas St

5

5

0.116

58

68

Navy

6

4

-0.002

115

69

TCU

5

5

-0.021

69

70

West Kentucky

6

4

-0.093

119

71

Ball St

5

5

-0.152

75

72

Miami FL

5

5

-0.153

74

73

Florida Atlantic

5

4

-0.265

110

74

Pittsburgh

4

5

-0.489

51

75

Nevada

5

4

-0.523

118

76

Washington St

4

6

-0.630

21

77

San Diego St

4

5

-0.756

70

78

Southern Miss

5

5

-0.794

106

79

Miami OH

5

5

-0.836

105

80

Toledo

5

5

-0.891

111

81

Arizona

4

6

-1.074

56

82

Middle Tenn St

5

6

-1.109

93

83

Memphis

5

5

-1.157

117

84

Washington

3

7

-1.291

4

85

Louisiana Tech

4

6

-1.458

77

86

Akron

4

6

-1.485

79

87

Ohio

5

6

-1.551

116

88

San Jose St

4

6

-1.590

85

89

Buffalo

4

6

-1.757

97

90

Stanford

3

7

-1.799

22

91

LA Monroe

4

6

-1.831

98

92

Arkansas St

4

6

-1.843

100

93

North Carolina

3

7

-1.864

20

94

UTEP

4

6

-1.871

109

95

Mississippi

3

7

-1.875

18

96

New Mexico St

4

7

-2.069

94

97

Iowa St

3

8

-2.398

34

98

Baylor

3

8

-2.474

36

99

Army

3

7

-2.528

72

100

Temple

3

7

-2.687

82

101

W Michigan

3

7

-2.730

83

102

Kent St

3

7

-2.827

89

103

Tulane

3

7

-3.032

103

104

Rice

3

7

-3.219

114

105

Syracuse

2

8

-3.257

32

106

East Michigan

3

8

-3.326

104

107

UNLV

2

8

-3.508

47

108

Marshall

2

8

-3.517

48

109

UAB

2

8

-3.667

65

110

LA Lafayette

2

8

-3.994

87

111

Duke

1

9

-4.088

2

112

Notre Dame

1

9

-4.112

3

113

Northern Illinois

2

8

-4.574

120

114

Others-Normal

1.18539

8.956277

-4.639

59

115

Colorado St

1

9

-4.729

39

116

Minnesota

1

10

-4.776

28

117

North Texas

1

8

-5.065

91

118

Idaho

1

9

-5.306

101

119

SMU

1

9

-5.455

112

120

Utah St

0

10

-6.076

27

121

Florida Intl

0

9

-6.122

38

Most overrated team: USC (8-2, AP#11, Hack#25) That loss to Stanford is hanging like an albatross around the Trojans’ collective neck. USC can mitigate that albatross with a win at Arizona St on Thanksgiving Day, and with that win they could make a strong argument to the Rose Bowl to select them as an at-large team if Oregon makes it to the National Championship.

Most underrated team: Connecticut (8-2, AP#25, Hack#14) Pundits are falling all over themselves to say “I told you so” after the Huskies lost to Cincinnati. But both of UConn’s losses have been on the road against teams that are currently 8-2, and UConn is still challenging for the Big East title. Dropping them almost entirely out of the top 25 was too much punishment, in my opinion.

Interesting games next week:

(6) Ohio St vs. (28) Michigan [for a berth in the Rose Bowl]

(18) Boston Coll vs. (15) Clemson [for a berth in the ACC championship]

(8) West Virginia vs. (16) Cincinnati [WVU needs to be careful to avoid the trap that UConn fell into last week]

(26) Kentucky vs. (9) Georgia [Winner clings to slim title hopes in SEC]

(7) Oklahoma vs. (49) Texas Tech [OU can clinch a berth in Big-12 championship]

(17) Hawaii vs. (75) Nevada [Final test for UH before they take on Boise St]

(2) Oregon vs. (81) Arizona [Ducks continue run for the national title game]

(32) California vs. (84) Washington [Cal tries to insure themselves a bowl bid by getting a seventh win]

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