A healthy quarterback, a healthy quarterback, my kingdom for a healthy quarterback!

Arizona St just handed the rest of the Pac-10 the formula for how to beat Cal for the rest of the year. Nate Longshore, who is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered four weeks ago at Oregon, started the game and looked pretty good in the first half. But after he had been hit a few times, it was obvious that his ankle was still really bothering him, and he was not sharp at all in the second half. Cal can also bemoan the fact that out of four good scoring opportunities in the first half they were only able to come away with a touchdown and two field goals – had they converted those opportunities into 24 or 28 points instead of 13 the outcome of the game might have looked different. But Dennis Erickson made the adjustments that were necessary, and as Longshore became increasingly less effective and the Cal defense spent more time on the field, the Sun Devils emerged as clearly the better team in Tempe on Saturday night.

Several top-10 teams suffered defeat again last week, so its something of a news item that the top 2 teams in the AP poll both survived potential tough road games. The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Honorable mention to Connecticut’s 22-15 win over South Florida. The Huskies really do have a stifling defense and held USF scoreless in the first half. Honorable mention to Mississippi St’s 31-14 win at Kentucky. With the win, MSU is only 1 win away from bowl eligibility, and with the loss Kentucky failed to take advantage of an opportunity to get back into the SEC East race. The upset of the week award, however, goes to NC St for their last-minute victory over Virginia, 29-24. Virginia had lived by the last-minute close victories, so it’s only fitting that the loss that snapped their 7-game win streak would come in the same fashion.

Comeback of the week: South Carolina had this award in the bag, having come back from a 21-0 deficit in Tennessee to lead, 24-21, in the final minute. But Tennessee got a tying field goal in regulation and a winning field goal in overtime to steal that game back from the Gamecocks (and now the Volunteers find themselves on the inside track towards a berth in the SEC championship!). The real comeback of the week, though, goes to Boston College. Shut down for 57 minutes in Blacksburg, the Eagles scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to escape with a 14-10 victory over Virginia Tech. V-Tech’s loss does not derail their ACC title hopes, but BC’s win definitely keeps them in the hunt for a berth in the national championship game.

Yawner of the week: I haven’t given much news of the MAC this year, but Toledo’s 70-21 win over Northern Illinois definitely qualified as this week’s yawner. Toledo led the game 42-7 at halftime. The Rockets still have an uphill battle to try to gain bowl eligibility, but easy wins over Northern Illinois (which admittedly is the worst 1-win team in the country) certainly help.

Game of the week: Fresh after climbing back into the Big-12 race, Texas A&M was excited about a home game against undefeated Kansas. The Jayhawk defense, however, rose to the challenge, and this game was scoreless at halftime. Kansas managed to pull out a tough road victory, 19-11, preserving their undefeated season and (they hope) catching the eye of some BCS scouts. They still have tough games remaining against Missouri and (likely) Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game, but if their only loss is a close loss to the Sooners in the title game they should be an attractive candidate for a BCS bowl.

BCS implications:

ACC: I wasn’t expecting this, but Boston College (as the top-5 team with the victory over the highest-ranked opponent) rose to the top of my rankings. The Eagles continue to roll and are likely to reach the ACC championship game. Virginia Tech and Virginia both lost, so neither team was able to take the lead in their division of the ACC, and they both remain in control of their own destinies. Interestingly, though, with both Virginia teams having lost, the door suddenly opens for Miami to challenge for a spot in the ACC championship – they are only a game behind in the standings and still have to play both Virginia teams.

Pac-10: Arizona St and Oregon both had big victories, and Oregon’s knocked USC out of contention for the league title at least for the time being. It’s now a 3-way race between the Sun Devils, the Ducks, and UCLA (despite the Bruins’ upset loss at Washington St). The Ducks have to be the favorite of the three as they are playing the best football right now, although UCLA does have the advantage of playing both of those highly ranked opponents at home.

SEC: All eyes this weekend focus on the LSU-Alabama game, the winner of which has the inside track to a berth in the SEC championship game. In the opposite division, the chaos I predicted if Georgia beat Florida has developed, and South Carolina’s loss to Tennessee added to the confusion. All six teams are still within one game of each other, so the trip to the championship game is still very much up for grabs. The only team of the six that controls its own fate, however, is Tennessee.

Big-12: Kansas and Missouri both won, so they continue to be the frontrunners in the Big-12 North. In the south, Texas A&M’s loss knocked them back out of contention for the time being but also cleared the road for Oklahoma St to mount a challenge to Oklahoma. The last game of the season between the two schools from the Sooner state could determine a trip to the Big-12 championship, and the Cowboys have a recent history of upsetting highly-ranked Sooner teams in this rivalry.

Big-10: Michigan rolled over Minnesota, as well they should have. Ohio St didn’t just survive, they dominated Penn St in spite of the white-out (Nittany Lions fans all dressed in white) conditions. All roads continue to point to the Ohio St – Michigan game being for the Big 10 title, and as long as OSU continues to win out they will almost definitely be in the national championship game.

Big East: I had thought that Rutgers’ defense was better than it was, and the fact is too that West Virginia running back Steve Slaton is not injured this year the way he was last year (which last year caused the Mountaineers to lose to Louisville and almost lose to Rutgers). West Virginia and Connecticut continue to win, and so that unlikely matchup seems destined to determine the conference champion. It’s the proverbial conundrum of the irresistible cannonball (WVU offense) hitting the immovable post (UConn defense). Ordinarily I’m a defensive minded guy, but in this case, my money would be on WVU.

Others: Boise St jumped to #12 in my rankings, and more importantly, Hawaii is showing up around in the #10-#12 range in the human polls, which indicates that the WAC champion might just end the season in the top-12 of the BCS rankings, guaranteeing them a trip to a BCS bowl (most likely the Sugar Bowl). It is to Hawaii’s advantage that they still have to play Boise (which will improve their standing in computer rankings if they win) and that they play the Broncos at home (where they have a calculated average 11-point home field advantage).

BCS Bowl Pie-in-the-sky predictions:

Championship: LSU vs. Ohio St [Even though BC is ahead of LSU in the BCS standings, I stand by my assertion that BC will not finish the season undefeated]

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. West Virginia [Rose Bowl would like Michigan, but I’m not sure that a 3-loss Michigan finishes in the necessary top-14]

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona St [Essentially a home game for the Sun Devils]

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii [Perhaps the only real defense Hawaii sees all year]

Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. Missouri [Orange Bowl would rather have West Virginia, but spots in the Rose and Sugar Bowls would be chosen first]

And now, my rankings through week 9:

Rank	Team		Wins	Losses	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Boston Coll		8	0	5.408	56	4	2
2	Arizona St		8	0	5.393	50	3	6
3	LSU		7	1	5.126	8	1	3
4	Kansas		8	0	4.946	76	8	8
5	Ohio St		9	0	4.939	78	2	1
6	Oregon		7	1	4.830	13	5	4
7	West Virginia		7	1	3.918	60	13	7
8	Oklahoma		7	1	3.782	66	11	5
9	Connecticut		7	1	3.677	68	15	16
10	Missouri		7	1	3.608	81	9	9
11	South Florida		6	2	3.421	15	6	20
12	Boise St		7	1	3.347	85	18	21
13	Georgia		6	2	3.343	16	19	10
14	Virginia Tech		6	2	3.107	32	12	11
15	Alabama		6	2	3.090	30	21	17
16	Virginia		7	2	2.905	53	7	29
17	Florida		5	3	2.814	3	10	18
18	Michigan		7	2	2.798	55	20	15
19	Hawaii		8	0	2.792	121	24	12
20	Clemson		6	2	2.783	42	35	25
21	Purdue		7	2	2.766	63	33	31
22	Wake Forest		6	2	2.727	45	17	22
23	Auburn		6	3	2.562	23	26	19
24	Tennessee		5	3	2.532	5	39	24
25	Texas		7	2	2.497	89	30	14
26	New Mexico		6	2	2.335	69		37
27	Illinois		6	3	2.301	24		37
28	Wisconsin		7	2	2.281	94		26
29	Kentucky		6	3	2.252	28	14	28
30	Penn St		6	3	2.235	26	25	30
31	South Carolina		6	3	2.159	33	16	23
32	California		5	3	2.134	14		27
33	Texas A&M		6	3	2.102	34	22
34	BYU		5	2	2.073	65		31
35	Kansas St		5	3	1.987	18		34
36	Oklahoma St		5	3	1.955	20		36
37	Oregon St		5	3	1.896	25
38	Georgia Tech		5	3	1.791	27
39	USC		6	2	1.786	103		13
40	Cincinnati		6	2	1.785	101
41	Florida St		5	3	1.763	29
42	Colorado		5	4	1.715	6
43	Rutgers		5	3	1.564	39		39
44	Wyoming		5	3	1.563	40
45	Troy		6	2	1.489	115		33
46	Air Force		6	3	1.458	77
47	Vanderbilt		5	3	1.409	57
48	UCLA		5	3	1.296	47	23	35
49	Mississippi St		5	4	1.236	19
50	Fresno St		5	3	1.167	67
51	Texas Tech		6	3	1.137	100
52	UCF		4	3	0.960	41
53	Utah		6	3	0.953	102
54	East Carolina		5	4	0.855	35
55	Miami FL		5	3	0.839	91
56	Arkansas		5	3	0.804	95
57	Tulsa		5	3	0.772	98
58	Houston		5	3	0.764	96
59	Michigan St		5	4	0.695	43
60	Maryland		4	4	0.656	17
61	Louisville		5	4	0.622	54
62	Northwestern		5	4	0.384	64
63	Cent Michigan		5	4	0.350	70
64	Ball St		5	4	0.317	75
65	Nebraska		4	5	0.308	12
66	Indiana		5	4	0.269	80
67	West Kentucky		5	3	0.026	119
68	UTEP		4	4	-0.123	72
69	TCU		4	4	-0.264	79
70	Bowling Green		4	4	-0.307	88
71	Navy		4	4	-0.349	82
72	Southern Miss		4	3	-0.354	117
73	NC St		3	5	-0.363	9
74	Stanford		3	5	-0.389	10
75	Iowa		4	5	-0.626	61
76	Florida Atlantic		4	4	-0.696	109
77	New Mexico St		4	5	-0.702	71
78	Washington St		3	5	-0.775	22
79	Middle Tenn St		4	5	-0.857	83
80	Nevada		4	4	-0.930	116
81	Pittsburgh		3	5	-0.970	36
82	Buffalo		4	5	-0.977	92
83	Miami OH		4	5	-0.983	93
84	Toledo		4	5	-1.226	110
85	Akron		3	5	-1.243	58
86	Washington		2	6	-1.315	2
87	Ohio		4	5	-1.335	114
88	Army		3	5	-1.353	62
89	Louisiana Tech		3	5	-1.461	74
90	Baylor		3	6	-1.540	38
91	San Jose St		3	5	-1.541	84
92	Arizona		3	6	-1.578	46
93	LA Monroe		3	5	-1.611	90
94	Memphis		4	4	-1.617	120
95	Arkansas St		3	5	-1.724	99
96	Temple		3	5	-1.770	105
97	North Carolina		2	6	-1.841	11
98	Kent St		3	6	-2.010	86
99	W Michigan		3	6	-2.096	97
100	Mississippi		2	7	-2.115	7
101	San Diego St		2	5	-2.144	49
102	East Michigan		3	6	-2.258	108
103	Syracuse		2	6	-2.329	37
104	UNLV		2	7	-2.714	44
105	UAB		2	6	-2.717	73
106	Notre Dame		1	7	-2.841	1
107	Duke		1	7	-3.085	4
108	Tulane		2	6	-3.136	111
109	Others-Normal		1.02637	7.29863	-3.832	52
110	Minnesota		1	8	-3.851	31
111	Colorado St		1	7	-3.894	59
112	Iowa St		1	8	-3.947	48
113	Marshall		1	7	-4.092	87
114	Rice		1	7	-4.206	107
115	North Texas		1	7	-4.234	104
116	SMU		1	7	-4.320	113
117	LA Lafayette		1	7	-4.334	112
118	Idaho		1	8	-4.393	106
119	Northern Illinois		1	8	-4.674	118
120	Florida Intl		0	8	-5.032	21
121	Utah St		0	8	-5.235	51

Most overrated team: USC (6-2, AP#13, Hack#29) Giving USC the Most Overrated distinction may come back to bite me, as the Trojans do play Cal in a couple of weeks and could very easily prove me wrong. But the fact remains that their body of work thus far is simply not that of a top-15 team. They played a pretty good game against #6 Oregon before finally losing the turnover battle and the game – we’ve seen that from plenty of mid-level teams this year. Their best victory was over Nebraska, currently ranked #65, they have a loss to #78 Stanford, and their wins over other Pac-10 bottom feeders were less than impressive. Probably they should not be as low as #39 – somewhere in the 20’s is more realistic, and as their strength-of-schedule ranking goes up in the coming weeks their overall ranking will follow.

Most underrated team: Virginia (7-2, AP#29, Hack#16) Pundits are falling all over themselves to say “I told you so” about their refusal to rank Virginia in the top 20 a week ago. But despite the upset loss to NC St, Virginia is still tied for the lead in their division of the ACC and is still playing good football.

Interesting games this week:

(2) Arizona St vs. (6) Oregon [3^rd huge home game for the Ducks this year]

(3) LSU vs. (15) Alabama [LSU’s toughest remaining test before possible SEC championship game]

(22) Wake Forest vs. (16) Virginia [Cavaliers need to rebound from their upset loss to NC St]

(25) Texas vs. (36) Oklahoma St [Newly resurgent Cowboys get a tough test from the Longhorns]

(28) Wisconsin vs. (5) Ohio St [After dominating Penn St on the road, Ohio St should be heavily favored to take out Wisconsin at home]

(43) Rutgers vs. (9) Connecticut [UConn tries to stay perfect in the Big East]

(91) San Jose St vs. (12) Boise St [Hawaii and Boise fans both rooting for Boise, BCS bigwigs are rooting for San Jose]

(78) Washington St vs. (32) California [Bears need to regroup and protect Longshore a lot better]