Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

A healthy quarterback, a healthy quarterback, my kingdom for a healthy quarterback!

Arizona St just handed the rest of the Pac-10 the formula for how to beat Cal for the rest of the year. Nate Longshore, who is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered four weeks ago at Oregon, started the game and looked pretty good in the first half. But after he had been hit a few times, it was obvious that his ankle was still really bothering him, and he was not sharp at all in the second half. Cal can also bemoan the fact that out of four good scoring opportunities in the first half they were only able to come away with a touchdown and two field goals – had they converted those opportunities into 24 or 28 points instead of 13 the outcome of the game might have looked different. But Dennis Erickson made the adjustments that were necessary, and as Longshore became increasingly less effective and the Cal defense spent more time on the field, the Sun Devils emerged as clearly the better team in Tempe on Saturday night.

Several top-10 teams suffered defeat again last week, so its something of a news item that the top 2 teams in the AP poll both survived potential tough road games. The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Honorable mention to Connecticut’s 22-15 win over South Florida. The Huskies really do have a stifling defense and held USF scoreless in the first half. Honorable mention to Mississippi St’s 31-14 win at Kentucky. With the win, MSU is only 1 win away from bowl eligibility, and with the loss Kentucky failed to take advantage of an opportunity to get back into the SEC East race. The upset of the week award, however, goes to NC St for their last-minute victory over Virginia, 29-24. Virginia had lived by the last-minute close victories, so it’s only fitting that the loss that snapped their 7-game win streak would come in the same fashion.

Comeback of the week: South Carolina had this award in the bag, having come back from a 21-0 deficit in Tennessee to lead, 24-21, in the final minute. But Tennessee got a tying field goal in regulation and a winning field goal in overtime to steal that game back from the Gamecocks (and now the Volunteers find themselves on the inside track towards a berth in the SEC championship!). The real comeback of the week, though, goes to Boston College. Shut down for 57 minutes in Blacksburg, the Eagles scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to escape with a 14-10 victory over Virginia Tech. V-Tech’s loss does not derail their ACC title hopes, but BC’s win definitely keeps them in the hunt for a berth in the national championship game.

Yawner of the week: I haven’t given much news of the MAC this year, but Toledo’s 70-21 win over Northern Illinois definitely qualified as this week’s yawner. Toledo led the game 42-7 at halftime. The Rockets still have an uphill battle to try to gain bowl eligibility, but easy wins over Northern Illinois (which admittedly is the worst 1-win team in the country) certainly help.

Game of the week: Fresh after climbing back into the Big-12 race, Texas A&M was excited about a home game against undefeated Kansas. The Jayhawk defense, however, rose to the challenge, and this game was scoreless at halftime. Kansas managed to pull out a tough road victory, 19-11, preserving their undefeated season and (they hope) catching the eye of some BCS scouts. They still have tough games remaining against Missouri and (likely) Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game, but if their only loss is a close loss to the Sooners in the title game they should be an attractive candidate for a BCS bowl.

BCS implications:

ACC: I wasn’t expecting this, but Boston College (as the top-5 team with the victory over the highest-ranked opponent) rose to the top of my rankings. The Eagles continue to roll and are likely to reach the ACC championship game. Virginia Tech and Virginia both lost, so neither team was able to take the lead in their division of the ACC, and they both remain in control of their own destinies. Interestingly, though, with both Virginia teams having lost, the door suddenly opens for Miami to challenge for a spot in the ACC championship – they are only a game behind in the standings and still have to play both Virginia teams.

Pac-10: Arizona St and Oregon both had big victories, and Oregon’s knocked USC out of contention for the league title at least for the time being. It’s now a 3-way race between the Sun Devils, the Ducks, and UCLA (despite the Bruins’ upset loss at Washington St). The Ducks have to be the favorite of the three as they are playing the best football right now, although UCLA does have the advantage of playing both of those highly ranked opponents at home.

SEC: All eyes this weekend focus on the LSU-Alabama game, the winner of which has the inside track to a berth in the SEC championship game. In the opposite division, the chaos I predicted if Georgia beat Florida has developed, and South Carolina’s loss to Tennessee added to the confusion. All six teams are still within one game of each other, so the trip to the championship game is still very much up for grabs. The only team of the six that controls its own fate, however, is Tennessee.

Big-12: Kansas and Missouri both won, so they continue to be the frontrunners in the Big-12 North. In the south, Texas A&M’s loss knocked them back out of contention for the time being but also cleared the road for Oklahoma St to mount a challenge to Oklahoma. The last game of the season between the two schools from the Sooner state could determine a trip to the Big-12 championship, and the Cowboys have a recent history of upsetting highly-ranked Sooner teams in this rivalry.

Big-10: Michigan rolled over Minnesota, as well they should have. Ohio St didn’t just survive, they dominated Penn St in spite of the white-out (Nittany Lions fans all dressed in white) conditions. All roads continue to point to the Ohio St – Michigan game being for the Big 10 title, and as long as OSU continues to win out they will almost definitely be in the national championship game.

Big East: I had thought that Rutgers’ defense was better than it was, and the fact is too that West Virginia running back Steve Slaton is not injured this year the way he was last year (which last year caused the Mountaineers to lose to Louisville and almost lose to Rutgers). West Virginia and Connecticut continue to win, and so that unlikely matchup seems destined to determine the conference champion. It’s the proverbial conundrum of the irresistible cannonball (WVU offense) hitting the immovable post (UConn defense). Ordinarily I’m a defensive minded guy, but in this case, my money would be on WVU.

Others: Boise St jumped to #12 in my rankings, and more importantly, Hawaii is showing up around in the #10-#12 range in the human polls, which indicates that the WAC champion might just end the season in the top-12 of the BCS rankings, guaranteeing them a trip to a BCS bowl (most likely the Sugar Bowl). It is to Hawaii’s advantage that they still have to play Boise (which will improve their standing in computer rankings if they win) and that they play the Broncos at home (where they have a calculated average 11-point home field advantage).

BCS Bowl Pie-in-the-sky predictions:

Championship: LSU vs. Ohio St [Even though BC is ahead of LSU in the BCS standings, I stand by my assertion that BC will not finish the season undefeated]

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. West Virginia [Rose Bowl would like Michigan, but I’m not sure that a 3-loss Michigan finishes in the necessary top-14]

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona St [Essentially a home game for the Sun Devils]

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii [Perhaps the only real defense Hawaii sees all year]

Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. Missouri [Orange Bowl would rather have West Virginia, but spots in the Rose and Sugar Bowls would be chosen first]

And now, my rankings through week 9:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

Boston Coll

8

0

5.408

56

4

2

2

Arizona St

8

0

5.393

50

3

6

3

LSU

7

1

5.126

8

1

3

4

Kansas

8

0

4.946

76

8

8

5

Ohio St

9

0

4.939

78

2

1

6

Oregon

7

1

4.830

13

5

4

7

West Virginia

7

1

3.918

60

13

7

8

Oklahoma

7

1

3.782

66

11

5

9

Connecticut

7

1

3.677

68

15

16

10

Missouri

7

1

3.608

81

9

9

11

South Florida

6

2

3.421

15

6

20

12

Boise St

7

1

3.347

85

18

21

13

Georgia

6

2

3.343

16

19

10

14

Virginia Tech

6

2

3.107

32

12

11

15

Alabama

6

2

3.090

30

21

17

16

Virginia

7

2

2.905

53

7

29

17

Florida

5

3

2.814

3

10

18

18

Michigan

7

2

2.798

55

20

15

19

Hawaii

8

0

2.792

121

24

12

20

Clemson

6

2

2.783

42

35

25

21

Purdue

7

2

2.766

63

33

31

22

Wake Forest

6

2

2.727

45

17

22

23

Auburn

6

3

2.562

23

26

19

24

Tennessee

5

3

2.532

5

39

24

25

Texas

7

2

2.497

89

30

14

26

New Mexico

6

2

2.335

69

37

27

Illinois

6

3

2.301

24

37

28

Wisconsin

7

2

2.281

94

26

29

Kentucky

6

3

2.252

28

14

28

30

Penn St

6

3

2.235

26

25

30

31

South Carolina

6

3

2.159

33

16

23

32

California

5

3

2.134

14

27

33

Texas A&M

6

3

2.102

34

22

34

BYU

5

2

2.073

65

31

35

Kansas St

5

3

1.987

18

34

36

Oklahoma St

5

3

1.955

20

36

37

Oregon St

5

3

1.896

25

38

Georgia Tech

5

3

1.791

27

39

USC

6

2

1.786

103

13

40

Cincinnati

6

2

1.785

101

41

Florida St

5

3

1.763

29

42

Colorado

5

4

1.715

6

43

Rutgers

5

3

1.564

39

39

44

Wyoming

5

3

1.563

40

45

Troy

6

2

1.489

115

33

46

Air Force

6

3

1.458

77

47

Vanderbilt

5

3

1.409

57

48

UCLA

5

3

1.296

47

23

35

49

Mississippi St

5

4

1.236

19

50

Fresno St

5

3

1.167

67

51

Texas Tech

6

3

1.137

100

52

UCF

4

3

0.960

41

53

Utah

6

3

0.953

102

54

East Carolina

5

4

0.855

35

55

Miami FL

5

3

0.839

91

56

Arkansas

5

3

0.804

95

57

Tulsa

5

3

0.772

98

58

Houston

5

3

0.764

96

59

Michigan St

5

4

0.695

43

60

Maryland

4

4

0.656

17

61

Louisville

5

4

0.622

54

62

Northwestern

5

4

0.384

64

63

Cent Michigan

5

4

0.350

70

64

Ball St

5

4

0.317

75

65

Nebraska

4

5

0.308

12

66

Indiana

5

4

0.269

80

67

West Kentucky

5

3

0.026

119

68

UTEP

4

4

-0.123

72

69

TCU

4

4

-0.264

79

70

Bowling Green

4

4

-0.307

88

71

Navy

4

4

-0.349

82

72

Southern Miss

4

3

-0.354

117

73

NC St

3

5

-0.363

9

74

Stanford

3

5

-0.389

10

75

Iowa

4

5

-0.626

61

76

Florida Atlantic

4

4

-0.696

109

77

New Mexico St

4

5

-0.702

71

78

Washington St

3

5

-0.775

22

79

Middle Tenn St

4

5

-0.857

83

80

Nevada

4

4

-0.930

116

81

Pittsburgh

3

5

-0.970

36

82

Buffalo

4

5

-0.977

92

83

Miami OH

4

5

-0.983

93

84

Toledo

4

5

-1.226

110

85

Akron

3

5

-1.243

58

86

Washington

2

6

-1.315

2

87

Ohio

4

5

-1.335

114

88

Army

3

5

-1.353

62

89

Louisiana Tech

3

5

-1.461

74

90

Baylor

3

6

-1.540

38

91

San Jose St

3

5

-1.541

84

92

Arizona

3

6

-1.578

46

93

LA Monroe

3

5

-1.611

90

94

Memphis

4

4

-1.617

120

95

Arkansas St

3

5

-1.724

99

96

Temple

3

5

-1.770

105

97

North Carolina

2

6

-1.841

11

98

Kent St

3

6

-2.010

86

99

W Michigan

3

6

-2.096

97

100

Mississippi

2

7

-2.115

7

101

San Diego St

2

5

-2.144

49

102

East Michigan

3

6

-2.258

108

103

Syracuse

2

6

-2.329

37

104

UNLV

2

7

-2.714

44

105

UAB

2

6

-2.717

73

106

Notre Dame

1

7

-2.841

1

107

Duke

1

7

-3.085

4

108

Tulane

2

6

-3.136

111

109

Others-Normal

1.02637

7.29863

-3.832

52

110

Minnesota

1

8

-3.851

31

111

Colorado St

1

7

-3.894

59

112

Iowa St

1

8

-3.947

48

113

Marshall

1

7

-4.092

87

114

Rice

1

7

-4.206

107

115

North Texas

1

7

-4.234

104

116

SMU

1

7

-4.320

113

117

LA Lafayette

1

7

-4.334

112

118

Idaho

1

8

-4.393

106

119

Northern Illinois

1

8

-4.674

118

120

Florida Intl

0

8

-5.032

21

121

Utah St

0

8

-5.235

51

Most overrated team: USC (6-2, AP#13, Hack#29) Giving USC the Most Overrated distinction may come back to bite me, as the Trojans do play Cal in a couple of weeks and could very easily prove me wrong. But the fact remains that their body of work thus far is simply not that of a top-15 team. They played a pretty good game against #6 Oregon before finally losing the turnover battle and the game – we’ve seen that from plenty of mid-level teams this year. Their best victory was over Nebraska, currently ranked #65, they have a loss to #78 Stanford, and their wins over other Pac-10 bottom feeders were less than impressive. Probably they should not be as low as #39 – somewhere in the 20’s is more realistic, and as their strength-of-schedule ranking goes up in the coming weeks their overall ranking will follow.

Most underrated team: Virginia (7-2, AP#29, Hack#16) Pundits are falling all over themselves to say “I told you so” about their refusal to rank Virginia in the top 20 a week ago. But despite the upset loss to NC St, Virginia is still tied for the lead in their division of the ACC and is still playing good football.

Interesting games this week:

(2) Arizona St vs. (6) Oregon [3rd huge home game for the Ducks this year]

(3) LSU vs. (15) Alabama [LSU’s toughest remaining test before possible SEC championship game]

(22) Wake Forest vs. (16) Virginia [Cavaliers need to rebound from their upset loss to NC St]

(25) Texas vs. (36) Oklahoma St [Newly resurgent Cowboys get a tough test from the Longhorns]

(28) Wisconsin vs. (5) Ohio St [After dominating Penn St on the road, Ohio St should be heavily favored to take out Wisconsin at home]

(43) Rutgers vs. (9) Connecticut [UConn tries to stay perfect in the Big East]

(91) San Jose St vs. (12) Boise St [Hawaii and Boise fans both rooting for Boise, BCS bigwigs are rooting for San Jose]

(78) Washington St vs. (32) California [Bears need to regroup and protect Longshore a lot better]

3 Comments:

  • this is getting so exciting!

    By Blogger Unknown, at 12:20 PM  

  • The good news is that it's actually easier to get to Ma Bell Park than to Memorial.

    By Blogger ljlkc, at 11:32 AM  

  • Are you boycotting updates until that healthy quarterback comes along? 'Cause that could be a while. ;)

    By Blogger ljlkc, at 2:34 PM  

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