The weekly carnage in the top-25 continues, and that is making bowl predictions that much more tenuous than they usually are. But as Cal’s Rose Bowl hopes died in the arms of UCLA defensive back Alterraun Verner, who intercepted a Nate Longshore pass and returned it for a touchdown with 1:33 remaining in the game last Saturday, bowl predictions are about the only thing this forlorn fan has to do right now.

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: The Vanderbilt Commodores were on the cusp of being a Cinderella team last year, starting 5-0 before bowing to more powerful foes in the SEC. This year, they revert to their more familiar role of spoiler. But they do perform that role well, in this case by going on the road to beat South Carolina 17-6. They scored all 17 points in the first quarter and then simply let their defense take over the game. The loss probably takes the Gamecocks out of the running for a BCS at-large bid, but they do technically still control their own fate – if they win the rest of their regular season games they will be in the SEC championship.

Comeback of the week: This one had most pundits scratching their heads. The Auburn Tigers played brilliantly in Baton Rouge, leading the LSU Tigers by 10 points at halftime. LSU clawed back in the second half but still found itself trailing by 1 point in the waning seconds with the ball deep in Auburn territory. For some reason, LSU coach Les Miles did not just set up for a game winning field goal – he had his team try a fade pass for a touchdown. It worked, and the Tigers won the game (and in so doing, regained the top spot in my rankings), but there were so many more things that could have gone wrong with that play call than with the field goal. Those who live by the aggressive play call eventually die by the same.

Yawner of the week: For the second time this season, the award will go to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, this time for their 56-7 win over Indiana St. The Hilltoppers scored 21 points in each of the first two quarters, and the ISU Sycamores (that’s for Lucy – she has been scanning my blog incessantly for weird mascots) scored their only touchdown in garbage time. Apparently their decision to promote themselves to DI-A was a good one, as they seem to have no problem with DI-AA competition.

Game of the week: One year ago, students in Piscataway, New Jersey, stormed the field after their Rutgers Scarlet Knights upset the then #3 Louisville Cardinals. The fields were again stormed last Thursday as Rutgers pulled off the upset against the #2 South Florida Bulls. It was a fantastic seesaw battle that saw Rutgers successfully pull off a fake punt (leading to a field goal) and a fake field goal (on which they scored a touchdown) to win by a slim 30-27 margin. And suddenly, even though I have South Florida at #6 and West Virginia at #13, both teams will need a team they have already played to lose a game in order to claim the Big East title – Rutgers at #28 controls its own fate.

BCS Watch:

In the SEC West, LSU’s win over Auburn dropped Auburn from the conference title discussion for the time being – all eyes now are on the LSU-Alabama game in two weeks. In the East, the division is more convoluted then ever – 5 teams have identical

3-2 conference records. Of those, however, only Florida and South Carolina control their own destinies; Tennessee dropped out of the discussion with their humiliating loss to Alabama.

In the Big-10, Michigan’s win over Illinois sets up a rematch of last year’s Ohio St – Michigan game for the conference title (with two conference losses, Illinois drops out of the discussion). It won’t be the monumental matchup that it was last year – neither team is as good as they were in 2006 – but a trip to a BCS bowl still should be riding on that game.

In the Pac-10, UCLA’s win over Cal drops Cal out of the conference title discussion and re-enters Oregon. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona St, and USC all control their own destinies, and they all still have to play each other, starting this week with USC visiting Oregon. Interestingly, 6-1 USC checks in only at #29 in my rankings because they currently boast the 6^th easiest schedule in the country! Their non-conference wins have been against lowly Idaho, flailing Nebraska, and pathetic Notre Dame, and their conference foes to date have been Washington St, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona, probably the bottom four teams in the conference. Their strength-of-schedule will improve dramatically in the coming weeks, but with myriad injuries to their quarterback and offensive line, plus the lack of real play-makers at wide receiver, they have to be considered a long shot to run the table and get to the Rose Bowl.

In the ACC, the situation is the same as it was a week ago; the Boston College – Virginia Tech game I touted a week ago is actually this weekend.

In the Big-12, there were two big shakeups. Kansas went on the road and beat Colorado to remain undefeated; the Jayhawks and Missouri are the frontrunners in the Big-12 North. Missouri’s blowout win over Texas Tech removed an important obstacle in Texas A&M’s quest for a Big-12 title – now the Aggies join Oklahoma in being in control of their own fate in the Big-12 South.

In the Big East, Connecticut is the only team undefeated in conference after their impressive (though somewhat controversial) win over Louisville. (The controversy was in the fact that UConn scored its first touchdown when a receiver catching a Louisville punt appeared to call for a fair catch but then ran with the ball. By the letter of the rule, the refs appeared to get the play right by not awarding the fair catch – the rules require the receiver to put his hand up and wave, and this receiver did not appear to wave. By the spirit of good football, however, it was at least an unsportsmanlike manipulation of the rules). Rutgers is also back in the Big East championship discussion thanks to Pittsburgh’s win over Cincinnati, and Rutgers is playing well enough right now to beat West Virginia at home next week.

Others: The Cinderella still in the spotlight is Hawaii, but Boise St has actually passed the Warriors in my rankings. Regardless, only the winner of the Boise St – Hawaii game will have any serious consideration, and the only question is will both teams rise high enough in the polls prior to that game to give the winner a sufficient boost into the BCS.

BCS Bowl Pie-in-the-sky predictions:

Championship: LSU vs. Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Boston Coll vs. South Florida

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Rutgers

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl: Arizona St vs. Missouri

There is enough of a sample size of games to declare that my rankings are as reliable as they are going to get. They are by no means predictive, but they do offer (in my opinion) a reasonable picture of what these teams have accomplished to date. Here they are:

Rank	Team		Wins	Losses	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	LSU		7	1	4.920	5	2	3
2	Ohio St		8	0	4.459	73	4	1
3	Arizona St		7	0	4.449	70	3	7
4	Boston Coll		7	0	4.390	81	6	2
5	Oregon		6	1	4.119	14	8	5
6	South Florida		6	1	4.000	20	1	11
7	Virginia		7	1	3.864	35	13	21
8	Kansas		7	0	3.809	109	9	12
9	Missouri		6	1	3.710	36	11	13
10	Florida		5	2	3.352	4	17	9
11	Oklahoma		7	1	3.285	71	10	4
12	Virginia Tech		6	1	3.229	60	12	8
13	West Virginia		6	1	3.203	66	15	6
14	Kentucky		6	2	3.109	15	5	14
15	Connecticut		6	1	2.989	79	25	29
16	South Carolina		6	2	2.621	40	7	15
17	Wake Forest		5	2	2.599	19	22	28
18	Boise St		6	1	2.498	102	27	27
19	Georgia		5	2	2.479	27	20	20
20	Michigan		6	2	2.476	39	38	19
21	Alabama		6	2	2.458	47	36	22
22	Texas A&M		6	2	2.452	46	34	40
23	UCLA		5	2	2.265	32	44	26
24	Hawaii		7	0	2.203	121	23	16
25	Penn St		6	2	2.188	62	37	24
26	Auburn		5	3	2.185	13	19	23
27	California		5	2	2.181	44	14	18
28	Rutgers		5	2	2.129	49		25
29	USC		6	1	2.053	116		9
30	Texas		6	2	1.967	83		17
31	Air Force		6	2	1.942	85		32
32	Oklahoma St		5	3	1.941	12		36
33	Purdue		6	2	1.924	86		40
34	BYU		5	2	1.895	63		33
35	Clemson		5	2	1.867	64		30
36	Texas Tech		6	2	1.827	97	24	33
37	Georgia Tech		5	3	1.701	26
38	Michigan St		5	3	1.651	25
39	Tennessee		4	3	1.649	7	16	36
40	Illinois		5	3	1.628	30
41	Wisconsin		6	2	1.611	105		31
42	Cincinnati		6	2	1.598	101	18	40
43	New Mexico		5	2	1.492	96
44	Fresno St		5	2	1.460	98		36
45	Oregon St		4	3	1.366	17
46	Kansas St		4	3	1.342	16	21	39
47	Maryland		4	3	1.317	18
48	Wyoming		4	3	1.256	22
49	Florida St		4	3	1.201	21
50	Navy		4	3	1.089	31
51	Troy		5	2	1.015	115		35
52	Colorado		4	4	0.945	8
53	Nebraska		4	4	0.878	10
54	Miami FL		5	3	0.855	72
55	Utah		5	3	0.823	78
56	Vanderbilt		4	3	0.790	50
57	Indiana		5	3	0.760	87
58	Ball St		5	3	0.747	88
59	Northwestern		5	3	0.737	84
60	Arkansas		4	3	0.655	55
61	Bowling Green		4	3	0.636	56
62	UCF		4	3	0.614	57
63	Tulsa		4	3	0.517	67
64	Mississippi St		4	4	0.471	24
65	East Carolina		4	4	0.406	28
66	UTEP		4	3	0.406	80
67	Florida Atlantic		4	3	0.272	91
68	Stanford		3	4	0.253	9
69	Houston		4	3	0.139	100
70	Louisville		4	4	0.009	54
71	West Kentucky		4	3	-0.126	113
72	TCU		4	4	-0.132	69
73	Pittsburgh		3	4	-0.161	23
74	Cent Michigan		4	4	-0.187	74
75	Washington		2	5	-0.343	1
76	Akron		3	4	-0.378	37
77	Miami OH		4	4	-0.405	93
78	New Mexico St		4	4	-0.536	103
79	Southern Miss		3	3	-0.802	114
80	Nevada		3	4	-1.091	99
81	Middle Tenn St		3	5	-1.092	48
82	Baylor		3	5	-1.126	53
83	North Carolina		2	5	-1.129	6
84	Army		3	5	-1.196	58
85	Iowa		3	5	-1.296	76
86	W Michigan		3	5	-1.319	77
87	San Jose St		3	5	-1.346	82
88	Kent St		3	5	-1.349	75
89	Buffalo		3	5	-1.421	90
90	Temple		3	5	-1.423	95
91	Arkansas St		3	4	-1.542	117
92	Toledo		3	5	-1.635	106
93	NC St		2	5	-1.654	34
94	Louisiana Tech		2	5	-1.709	41
95	Washington St		2	5	-1.754	38
96	Mississippi		2	6	-1.770	11
97	Ohio		3	5	-1.989	118
98	Memphis		3	4	-2.054	120
99	San Diego St		2	5	-2.062	59
100	Arizona		2	6	-2.125	42
101	Syracuse		2	6	-2.146	45
102	UAB		2	5	-2.229	89
103	UNLV		2	6	-2.239	51
104	Duke		1	6	-2.286	3
105	LA Monroe		2	5	-2.296	92
106	Notre Dame		1	7	-2.331	2
107	Tulane		2	5	-2.532	110
108	East Michigan		2	6	-2.718	104
109	Minnesota		1	7	-3.241	33
110	Colorado St		1	6	-3.362	65
111	Rice		1	6	-3.502	94
112	Iowa St		1	7	-3.553	61
113	Others-Normal		0.840376	6.617958	-3.562	52
114	North Texas		1	6	-3.683	107
115	SMU		1	6	-3.727	112
116	Idaho		1	7	-3.811	108
117	LA Lafayette		1	7	-3.871	111
118	Northern Illinois		1	7	-4.167	119
119	Florida Intl		0	7	-4.547	29
120	Utah St		0	7	-4.646	43
121	Marshall		0	6	-4.782	68

Most overrated team: Hawaii (7-0, AP#16, Hack#24) As they continue to roll through the WAC, sometimes just barely beating teams that aren’t very good, the Warriors will probably continue to garner this dubious honor. Expect a change only after they lose or after they play Boise St

Most underrated team: Virginia (7-1, AP#21, Hack#7) Matt Hayes was laughing in his column in Sporting News about computers that rank USC #24 and Virginia #6. I do think a #7 ranking by my computer is a little high, but I also think that they have not received the credit they have deserved all year, a condition that seems to self-perpetuate among human voters. Their toughest game is yet to come, against Virginia Tech, but until then I believe they deserve to be ranked close to V-Tech since they boast a similar resume.

Interesting games next week:

(2) Ohio St vs. (25) Penn St [OSU’s toughest remaining test until Michigan]

(4) Boston Coll vs. (12) Virginia Tech [Possible preview of ACC championship game]

(6) South Florida vs. (15) Connecticut [Can UConn defense stop Matt Groethe?]

(13) West Virginia vs. (28) Rutgers [WVU beat Rutgers last year, relegating them to the Texas Bowl. Revenge game?]

(8) Kansas vs. (22) Texas A&M [Despite Coach Francione’s scandal, A&M is back in the title hunt]

(10) Florida vs. (19) Georgia [If UGa wins, SEC East gets even more chaotic]

(29) USC vs. (5) Oregon [First time in six years that USC has been an underdog]

(27) California vs. (3) Arizona St [Should be a shootout]