Ouch. I really don’t have anything to say other than ouch. Oregon came into their game against Cal last weekend with one big question, how would their young offensive line perform against Cal’s veteran defense, and they answered that question by clearing holes and protecting their quarterback well enough to roll up over 500 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, everyone knew that the Ducks’ defense would be swarming on Jahvid Best, so it was up to Kevin Riley to use Cal’s passing game to set up the run. Riley had an ineffective day, and Oregon blasted Cal 42-3.

The funny part of that game, however, is how quickly pundits are falling over themselves to make Oregon the team to beat in the Pac-10 now. Saturday’s game did more to emphasize that Cal was overrated than to suggest that Oregon is a top-10 team. Oregon has about as good of a chance as any non-USC team to win the Pac-10 this year, but other teams deserve to be in that discussion too. Arizona has quietly put together a solid start, including a road win at Oregon St last weekend, and their only loss has been to Iowa (which is currently ranked #1 in the HackPoll). And I haven’t heard a peep about UCLA since their road win at Tennessee, but they are 3-0 right now.

All right, enough rationalizing. To the weekly awards:

Upset of the Week: It’s tempting to go with Oregon over Cal, or South Carolina over Mississippi, or Iowa over Penn St, but since the losers of those games were all overrated going into play, I can’t honestly say that any of those outcomes were particularly shocking. So I’m going with South Florida over Florida St (Hi Charley!). South Florida lost their starting veteran quarterback Matt Groethe to an ACL tear last week, but freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels stepped into Groethe’s shoes and led the Bulls to an impressive 17-7 road win at Florida St. I also think the Seminoles were overrated coming into play, but even so one would not have expected them to perform so poorly against a team whose quarterback was playing in his first game.

Yawner of the Week: Mercifully, there were not too many true yawners this week, but Nebraska’s 55-0 shellacking of Louisiana-Lafayette certainly was in that category.

Comeback of the Week: Penn St’s first play from scrimmage against Iowa was a 79-yard touchdown pass. After that, they put together a 20-play drive that resulted only in a field goal. After that, they never came close to scoring again. Iowa played a tough, gritty game, wearing down the Penn St line and putting continually more pressure on the quarterback. The Hawkeyes managed only a field goal and a safety through the first three quarters, but finally took the lead on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the fourth, before putting the game away with another touchdown and a field goal in the final seconds. Circle October 10th on your Big-10 calendars: it’s going to be fun watching Michigan’s rejuvenated offense take on Iowa’s very physical defense.

Game of the Week: Speaking of Michigan (Hi Charley again!), freshman quarterback Tate Forcier has quickly become (in my opinion) the most fun player to watch in college football this year. Two weeks after bursting onto the scene by leading a game-winning drive in a marquee game against Notre Dame, he did the same thing against Indiana, dealing the Hoosiers their first loss by a score of 36-33. Rich Rodriguez’ Wolverines are 4-0, and still have some big tests in front of them (see Oct 10, Iowa), but they have the fans in the Big House believing again.

And now, with 11.4% reliability, here are this week’s rankings. (I still haven’t figured out the formatting issues, so I’ve added labels to the numbers to make them easier to read.)

Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Iowa 4-0 3.523 STR-9 Last-4 AP-13
2 LSU 4-0 3.099 STR-15 Last-2 AP-4
3 Michigan 4-0 2.968 STR-24 Last-15 AP-22
4 Virginia Tech 3-1 2.903 STR-1 Last-17 AP-6
5 Houston 3-0 2.574 STR-48 Last-8 AP-12
6 Texas 4-0 2.468 STR-54 Last-9 AP-2
7 Alabama 4-0 2.459 STR-50 Last-6 AP-3
8 UCLA 3-0 2.453 STR-56 Last-14 AP-30
9 Florida 4-0 2.435 STR-62 Last-25 AP-1
10 Cincinnati 4-0 2.381 STR-65 Last-5 AP-10
11 Boise St 4-0 2.338 STR-69 Last-11 AP-5
12 Oregon 3-1 2.300 STR-5 Last-28 AP-16
13 Kansas 4-0 2.235 STR-79 Last-29 AP-18
14 Georgia 3-1 2.150 STR-7 Last-31 AP-19
15 Auburn 4-0 2.129 STR-87 Last-3 AP-27
16 Miami FL 2-1 2.092 STR-3 Last-1 AP-17
17 Arizona 3-1 1.876 STR-12 Last-35
18 Wisconsin 4-0 1.785 STR-107 Last-13 AP-32
19 South Carolina 3-1 1.770 STR-13 Last-46 AP-28
20 Minnesota 3-1 1.765 STR-18 Last-21
21 BYU 3-1 1.690 STR-16 Last-41 AP-20
22 Georgia Tech 3-1 1.679 STR-22 Last-24 AP-25
23 TCU 3-0 1.595 STR-112 Last-59 AP-11
24 Penn St 3-1 1.567 STR-27 Last-19 AP-15
25 North Carolina 3-1 1.502 STR-31 Last-10 AP-35
26 California 3-1 1.429 STR-35 Last-12 AP-24
27 Missouri 4-0 1.407 STR-116 Last-18 AP-26
28 Iowa St 3-1 1.405 STR-43
29 Ohio St 3-1 1.392 STR-38 AP-9
30 USC 3-1 1.370 STR-36 AP-7
31 Washington 2-2 1.351 STR-2 Last-7
32 Texas A&M 3-0 1.314 STR-119
33 Connecticut 3-1 1.293 STR-51 Last-16
34 Nebraska 3-1 1.250 STR-47 AP-23
35 Indiana 3-1 1.234 STR-57 Last-20
36 Utah 3-1 1.178 STR-55 AP-31
37 Clemson 2-2 1.175 STR-4 Last-23
38 Oklahoma St 3-1 1.172 STR-76 AP-14
39 Notre Dame 3-1 1.153 STR-58 AP-33
40 Idaho 3-1 1.124 STR-64
41 South Florida 4-0 1.063 STR-121 AP-29
42 Stanford 3-1 1.051 STR-72 AP-35
43 West Virginia 2-1 1.023 STR-37
44 NC St 3-1 1.002 STR-83
45 Oklahoma 2-1 0.994 STR-42 AP-8
46 Boston Coll 3-1 0.981 STR-80
47 Marshall 3-1 0.929 STR-84
48 Southern Miss 3-1 0.891 STR-88
49 Pittsburgh 3-1 0.772 STR-98 Last-22
50 Rutgers 3-1 0.761 STR-92
51 Arizona St 2-1 0.758 STR-61 AP-34
52 Kentucky 2-1 0.756 STR-63
53 Cent Michigan 3-1 0.733 STR-100
54 Baylor 2-1 0.733 STR-68
55 Colorado St 3-1 0.664 STR-102
56 Middle Tenn St 3-1 0.662 STR-103
57 Florida St 2-2 0.568 STR-14
58 Mississippi St 2-2 0.557 STR-11
59 Air Force 3-1 0.520 STR-111
60 Mississippi 2-1 0.387 STR-93 AP-21
61 Tennessee 2-2 0.369 STR-29
62 Oregon St 2-2 0.353 STR-26
63 LA Lafayette 2-2 0.307 STR-28
64 Tulsa 3-1 0.304 STR-118
65 Wake Forest 2-2 0.192 STR-46
66 Syracuse 2-2 0.127 STR-44
67 Northern Illinois 2-2 0.049 STR-53
68 Hawaii 2-1 -0.010 STR-114
69 Texas Tech 2-2 -0.012 STR-75
70 East Carolina 2-2 -0.015 STR-67
71 W Michigan 2-2 -0.080 STR-73
72 Wyoming 2-2 -0.087 STR-70
73 Troy 2-2 -0.096 STR-66
74 Navy 2-2 -0.167 STR-82
75 LA Monroe 2-2 -0.179 STR-81
76 UNLV 2-2 -0.304 STR-95
77 Ohio 2-2 -0.326 STR-90
78 Vanderbilt 2-2 -0.330 STR-91
79 SMU 2-1 -0.338 STR-120
80 Kent St 2-2 -0.350 STR-96
81 Kansas St 2-2 -0.374 STR-106
82 Toledo 2-2 -0.440 STR-101
83 UCF 2-2 -0.441 STR-108
84 Bowling Green 1-3 -0.460 STR-6
85 Northwestern 2-2 -0.466 STR-105
86 Duke 2-2 -0.467 STR-104
87 Arkansas 1-2 -0.470 STR-19
88 Fresno St 1-3 -0.591 STR-8
89 Illinois 1-2 -0.602 STR-32
90 Army 2-2 -0.680 STR-115
91 Utah St 1-2 -0.690 STR-52
92 Colorado 1-2 -0.709 STR-59
93 New Mexico St 2-2 -0.737 STR-117
94 Washington St 1-3 -0.782 STR-21
95 Tulane 1-2 -0.832 STR-74
96 Louisiana Tech 1-2 -0.846 STR-71
97 Purdue 1-3 -0.868 STR-23
98 UTEP 1-3 -0.870 STR-20
99 Louisville 1-2 -0.920 STR-86
100 Michigan St 1-3 -0.981 STR-30
101 San Diego St 1-3 -0.988 STR-33
102 Arkansas St 1-2 -1.070 STR-97
103 Akron 1-3 -1.072 STR-40
104 San Jose St 1-3 -1.091 STR-45
105 Maryland 1-3 -1.126 STR-49
106 Memphis 1-3 -1.232 STR-78
107 North Texas 1-3 -1.259 STR-77
108 Temple 1-2 -1.323 STR-113
109 UAB 1-3 -1.413 STR-109
110 Buffalo 1-3 -1.433 STR-99
111 Nevada 0-3 -2.041 STR-10
112 Others-Normal -2.082 STR-60
113 Florida Intl 0-3 -2.189 STR-17
114 New Mexico 0-4 -2.250 STR-41
115 Florida Atlantic 0-3 -2.254 STR-25
116 Miami OH 0-4 -2.297 STR-34
117 East Michigan 0-3 -2.340 STR-39
118 Virginia 0-3 -2.474 STR-85
119 Rice 0-4 -2.539 STR-94
120 West Kentucky 0-4 -2.549 STR-89
121 Ball St 0-4 -2.657 STR-110

In a rare feat of prognostication, last week I panned Mississippi and they lost and I propped Iowa and they won. This week:

Most overrated team: Mississippi (2-1, AP#21, Hack#60). Ole Miss is still in the ranked entirely because of momentum – the voters did not see fit to drop them out of the polls entirely even though they don’t yet have a significant win. That won’t change next week as they play Vanderbilt. If they lose to Alabama on Oct 10, and they should, their next opportunity for a meaningful win probably won’t be until Halloween, when they play Auburn.

Most underrated team: Honorable mention to Arizona, who inexplicably failed to garner even a single vote in this week’s AP poll. But I’m going with Michigan (4-0, AP#22, Hack#3), who is not in the top-10 again entirely because of momentum.

Interesting games next week:
(2) LSU vs. (14) Georgia [Florida gets a bye this week before they have to play LSU next week. LSU is not so lucky, having to travel to Georgia]
(18) Wisconsin vs. (20) Minnesota [Wisconsin hits the meat of their Big-10 schedule, playing Minnesota, Ohio St, and Iowa the next three weeks, 2 of those games being on the road]
(30) USC vs. (26) California [About the only good thing to come out of the Bears’ loss to Oregon is that they won’t be favored to beat USC this weekend. I hate going into the USC favored – it’s bad enough losing to them when we’re supposed to lose…