Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Upon seeing the AP poll come out this past Sunday with Cal ranked #6, Lucy’s response in an email to me was: “I can’t wait to see the new Hack Poll this week. No 6 after that lame performance, really? And the Huskies at #24?! Good grief.” Or to translate, the human voters are smoking crack, but are they sharing with my computer?

The answer is: sort of. Cal (2-0, #22 last week) beat Minnesota (2-0, #18 last week), and at this point in the season beating an unbeaten team is usually worth a pretty significant jump in my computer rankings. They check in at #12, which is a reasonable outcome. The weirdness comes with Washington, however, who after beating USC jumped all the way from #32 to #7! How could this happen? The answer, of course, lies in Idaho!

Washington’s ranking is boosted, somewhat artificially at this point, by the fact that they currently have the top-ranked strength of schedule in D-IA football. They are one of 4 teams in the country (the other three being Miami, Virginia Tech, and Connecticut) with a perfect second-degree-of-separation record (that is, when Washington’s opponents aren’t playing Washington, they are for the moment undefeated). Given that two of Washington’s opponents to date have been LSU and USC, that’s not too surprising. But the shocker is that perennial WAC doormat Idaho already has two wins this season as well (over New Mexico St and San Diego St), and that is reflecting positively on Washington, who beat them last week. This will even out over time, as Idaho loses a couple of games and UW plays other teams that aren’t perfect, the Huskies’ strength-of-schedule advantage will start to come back to earth, as will their ranking (unless, of course, they keep winning!).

And so with that, the weekly awards:

Upset of the Week: USC’s freshman quarterback, Matt Barkley, has already been compared to such greats as Joe Montana, but that of course means nothing if he’s sidelined with an injury. Washington, fresh off an abysmal year, gutted out a tough, defensive battle to beat the Trojans, 16-13. The Pac-10 season is far from over for the Trojans, but it suddenly got a lot more interesting for everyone else.

Comeback of the Week: Southern Miss over Virginia, 37-34. Virginia led 27-10 at halftime and 34-17 late in the 3rd quarter when Freddie Parham returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, sparking a 21-point comeback and leading the Golden Eagles to their improbable victory.

Yawner of the Week: Last week I panned Florida for scheduling Charleston Southern, and this week CSU became the victim of another yawner, this time to South Florida by a score of 59-0. Unfortunately for USF, however, they lost star quarterback Matt Groethe due to an injury, a loss that will hurt them as they head into their Big East Conference season.

Game of the Week: Nebraska was clinging to a 15-10 lead late in Blacksburg over Virginia Tech, but their defense was rising to the occasion. That is, until the final drive of the game when V-Tech converted two huge pass plays, including a 3rd-and-goal from the 11 with 24 seconds left, to pull out the win, 16-15.

And now, presented with 6.0% reliability, here are this week’s rankings (apologies for the formatting issues last week. Hopefully they will appear better this week…)

Rank Team Wins Losses Value STR Last Week AP
1 Miami FL 2 0 3.378 2 5 9
2 LSU 3 0 2.822 6 3 7
3 Auburn 3 0 2.471 18 31 28
4 Iowa 3 0 2.273 26 24 31
5 Cincinnati 3 0 2.208 30 23 14
6 Alabama 3 0 2.111 29 2 3
7 Washington 2 1 1.924 1 32 24
8 Houston 2 0 1.919 50 13 17
9 Texas 3 0 1.910 54 6 2
10 North Carolina 3 0 1.893 52 14 22
11 Boise St 3 0 1.864 57 12 8
12 California 3 0 1.848 60 22 6
13 Wisconsin 3 0 1.777 68 7
14 UCLA 3 0 1.737 77 4 30
15 Michigan 3 0 1.731 70 17 23
16 Connecticut 2 1 1.720 3 34
17 Virginia Tech 2 1 1.675 4 44 11
18 Missouri 3 0 1.465 91 8 26
19 Penn St 3 0 1.415 88 19 5
20 Indiana 3 0 1.360 95 47
21 Minnesota 2 1 1.354 8 18
22 Pittsburgh 3 0 1.340 96 29 29
23 Clemson 2 1 1.311 10 46 36
24 Georgia Tech 2 1 1.275 11 16 27
25 Florida 3 0 1.250 101 57 1
26 Kentucky 2 0 1.236 103
27 Arizona St 2 0 1.212 102
28 Oregon 2 1 1.197 16 32
29 Kansas 3 0 1.186 104 20
30 Southern Miss 3 0 1.185 106
31 Georgia 2 1 1.157 14 21
32 Florida St 2 1 1.139 19 18
33 Oregon St 2 1 1.133 17 37
34 Mississippi 2 0 1.092 109 4
35 Arizona 2 1 1.057 22 15
36 Oklahoma St 2 1 0.881 39 16
37 Colorado St 3 0 0.870 113 37
38 LA Lafayette 2 1 0.770 34 25
39 Mississippi St 2 1 0.765 35
40 West Virginia 2 1 0.763 36
41 BYU 2 1 0.753 32 20 19
42 Baylor 1 1 0.752 5 1
43 USC 2 1 0.728 46 11 12
44 Idaho 2 1 0.727 59
45 Notre Dame 2 1 0.688 45 34
46 South Carolina 2 1 0.657 49
47 Iowa St 2 1 0.651 55
48 UNLV 2 1 0.651 56
49 Middle Tenn St 2 1 0.643 51
50 Northern Illinois 2 1 0.638 61
51 UCF 2 1 0.636 62
52 Nebraska 2 1 0.627 47 10 25
53 San Diego St 1 2 0.541 42 9
54 Rutgers 2 1 0.523 66
55 Oklahoma 2 1 0.511 76 10
56 Ohio St 2 1 0.506 74 13
57 Marshall 2 1 0.489 71
58 Texas A&M 2 0 0.461 118
59 TCU 2 0 0.436 119 15
60 Wake Forest 2 1 0.402 83
61 Ohio 2 1 0.396 82
62 Boston Coll 2 1 0.314 86 21
63 Hawaii 2 1 0.309 87
64 Cent Michigan 2 1 0.267 94
65 South Florida 3 0 0.257 121 39
66 Texas Tech 2 1 0.250 97 33
67 Stanford 2 1 0.199 99
68 Illinois 1 1 0.105 48
69 Air Force 2 1 0.051 107
70 Utah 2 1 0.038 105 35
71 Syracuse 1 2 0.021 7
72 NC St 2 1 -0.014 111
73 Tulsa 2 1 -0.091 112
74 Louisville 1 1 -0.109 89
75 Fresno St 1 2 -0.179 13
76 SMU 2 1 -0.208 114
77 LA Monroe 1 2 -0.237 20
78 Arkansas 1 1 -0.253 90
79 Akron 1 2 -0.258 21
80 Buffalo 1 2 -0.267 24
81 W Michigan 1 2 -0.276 23
82 Bowling Green 1 2 -0.292 25
83 Northwestern 2 1 -0.294 116
84 Navy 1 2 -0.314 28
85 Arkansas St 1 1 -0.366 100
86 Washington St 1 2 -0.372 40
87 Vanderbilt 1 2 -0.379 27
88 Tennessee 1 2 -0.379 31
89 East Carolina 1 2 -0.449 33
90 Kansas St 1 2 -0.456 37
91 Maryland 1 2 -0.465 38
92 Purdue 1 2 -0.466 43
93 Memphis 1 2 -0.591 75
94 Army 2 1 -0.602 120
95 UTEP 1 2 -0.605 69
96 Troy 1 2 -0.624 72
97 Louisiana Tech 1 2 -0.645 65
98 Duke 1 2 -0.660 78
99 Colorado 1 2 -0.677 80
100 North Texas 1 2 -0.677 81
101 Wyoming 1 2 -0.732 79
102 Michigan St 1 2 -0.747 84
103 Kent St 1 2 -0.751 85
104 Toledo 1 2 -0.789 92
105 New Mexico St 1 2 -0.977 110
106 UAB 1 2 -1.140 115
107 Others-Normal 0.215909091 2.634090909 -1.486 58
108 Florida Intl 0 2 -1.497 9
109 Nevada 0 2 -1.532 12
110 Miami OH 0 3 -1.582 15
111 Utah St 0 2 -1.643 53
112 East Michigan 0 3 -1.696 44
113 New Mexico 0 3 -1.696 64
114 Florida Atlantic 0 2 -1.720 41
115 San Jose St 0 3 -1.755 63
116 Tulane 0 2 -1.763 67
117 Virginia 0 3 -1.808 73
118 Rice 0 3 -1.892 93
119 Temple 0 2 -1.961 98
120 West Kentucky 0 3 -2.006 108
121 Ball St 0 3 -2.108 117

Most overrated team: Mississippi (2-0, AP#4, Hack#34) I have the same thing to say about Ole Miss this week that I did about Florida last week – how can we really know how good they are if the only teams they have played are Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana?

Most underrated team: Iowa (3-0, AP#31, Hack#4) After several years of underperformance, the Hawkeyes have quietly gotten out of the gate with wins over Iowa St and Arizona. They will open quite a few eyes if they can pull off the upset over Penn St next week.

Interesting games next week:
(1) Miami FL vs. (17) Virginia Tech [Huge early-season ACC matchup]
(4) Iowa vs. (19) Penn St [PSU is also overrated, but they could change my mind about that with a win over Iowa]
(10) North Carolina vs. (24) Georgia Tech [This was supposed to be the Yellow Jackets’ year – this will be a good opportunity to get back on track]
(20) Indiana vs. (15) Michigan [Surprising start for the Hoosiers, but it will be tough for them to win on the road against the rebuilt Wolverines]
(25) Florida vs. (26) Kentucky [The Wildcats also have started strong, but the game against the Gators will probably define their season]
(12) California vs. (28) Oregon [Was it only 2 years ago that Cal went into Autzen stadium and pulled out one of the most dramatic victories in Bears’ history? This game figures to be almost as big as that one was, and both teams are relying on less experienced quarterbacks than they were 2 years ago]

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