Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

After a (mostly) non-conference season filled with (mostly) fairly meaningless blowouts by elite teams of far inferior competition, I was definitely ready for a meaningful start to the conference season (sort of in the same way that sailboats jockey for position in pre-race maneuvers before the cannon fires and the real racing begins). And this past weekend did not disappoint. There were three matchups between undefeated teams, and a total of eight teams suffered their first loss of the season. In a week replete with upsets, however, there were two fairly predictable results. One: when there are a lot of upsets, AP poll voters tend not to know who to vote for, how much to penalize highly ranked teams for unexpected losses, and how much to reward previously unknown teams for unexpected wins. Consequently, the list of “others receiving votes” at the end of the poll is much longer than usual. Two: I don’t have trouble ranking teams, but I do have trouble deciding whom to give weekly awards, so my lists will be filled with honorable mentions.

By the way, I have fixed the settings on the blog so that only the most recent post will be visible, although you can browse archived posts too if you like. But this should make reading and commenting on the current edition easier.

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Honorable mention to Maryland’s 34-24 win at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights lost several key members of their defensive front-7 to graduation after last season, and the Terrapins exploited that weakness with a good running attack. Honorable mention to Kansas St’s 41-21 win at Texas. The Wildcats knocked Texas out of the running for the BCS title game last year, and the Longhorns were definitely bent on revenge. For K-St to go into Austin and deal Texas a 20-point defeat was quite an accomplishment. But the real upset of the week award goes to Colorado, who scored 17 points in the 4th quarter to beat Oklahoma, 27-24. Dan Hawkins, in his second year as coach of the Buffaloes after leaving Boise St, finally has a signature win for his program over an elite team. As Alan would surely attest, there were probably a lot of couches burned in celebration in Boulder last Saturday.

Comeback of the week: Certainly Colorado’s 17-point 4th quarter comeback was the most meaningful comeback of the week, but the award will go nonetheless to Arkansas St. Down 31-6 at halftime, they outscored Memphis 29-0 in the second half to win, 35-31.

Yawner of the week: Thankfully, there were not nearly as many candidates for this award as there have been in past weeks. I’ll give the nod to Texas Tech’s win over Northwestern St. Tech led 38-7 at the half en route to a 75-7 win. I guess those who paid to see a Red Raiders victory got their money’s worth, but those who paid to see a good football game, not so much…

Game of the week: Honorable mention to South Florida’s 21-13 win over West Virginia. A lot of pundits are calling this a major upset, but I’m not. USF has consistently impressed throughout the relatively short lifetime of its football program, and their history already includes some impressive wins, including at West Virginia last year and at Auburn this year. At 5-0 with quality wins, they can no longer be ignored by the pollsters, and they find themselves in the top-10 for the first time in their history.

Honorable mention to Wisconsin’s 37-34 win over Michigan St. The Badgers kept trying to put the game away and the Spartans kept scoring to keep the game close until Wisconsin finally got a late field goal to win it. Pundits are saying that, since Wisconsin had so much trouble with unranked Michigan St that Wisconsin must not be as good as they originally thought. I disagree – as you know from my previous posts I have thought that Michigan St was underrated for some time now, and for them to go into Madison and take the unbeaten Badgers right down to the wire is more of an indication of the Spartans’ strength than of the Badgers’ weakness. Of course, there are two obvious reason why Michigan St is not getting the props they are due at this point, and those reasons are: Appalachian St and Duke. (What? you say, Michigan St hasn’t played either of those teams!). No, but Appalachian St beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, and Duke beat Northwestern in Chicago. Pundits tend to measure guilt by association, and if two Big-10 teams can lose home games to vastly inferior opposition then, ipso facto, all Big-10 teams must not be as good as we thought. Rubbish, I say. We’ll find out how Michigan St stacks up against Northwestern next week and against Michigan next month. Until then, it’s comparing apples and oranges.

BUT THE REAL game of the week definitely goes to: Our Sturdy Golden Bears in their 31-24 victory over Oregon. It was a game that had you on the edge of your seat right from the opening kickoff all the way through the last play of the game. Most expected it to be an offensive shootout, but neither quarterback was sharp in the first half and defenses on both sides were playing aggressively and tenaciously. The halftime score would have been 3-3 were it not for a critical personal foul by Cal defensive back Marcus Ezeff that kept an Oregon drive, on which the Ducks would eventually score a touchdown, alive. Cal made offensive adjustments in the locker room and put them to good use in scoring four touchdowns in the second half, spotlighting a breakout game for Heisman candidate receiver Desean Jackson, the best road performance of his career for quarterback Nate Longshore, and bulldog running by Justin Forsett. Forsett in particular was an offensive savior for the Bears in the last 6 minutes of the game – Longshore suffered an ankle sprain and the Bears did not attempt another pass after that point; their remaining 8 offensive plays were all runs by Forsett including the touchdown that put them ahead for good. Even so, the Ducks had a chance to come back with a first-and-goal on the 5-yard-line with 22 seconds to play. Dennis Dixon, who had shaken off throwing two critical interceptions earlier in the fourth quarter (his only two interceptions of the year), hit receiver Cameron Colman with a swing pass, and Colman tried to stretch the ball over the goal line. Marcus Ezeff, in one of the most dramatic redemption moments you will ever see in a college football game, made up for his previous mistake by hitting Colman inches from the goal line causing him to fumble. The fumbled ball bounced into the end zone and out of bounds for a touchback turnover, and Cal escaped with a dramatic victory. (And adding to my joy, the officials saw the play well, conferred well, and got the call right!)

I’m winded again just thinking about it! Enough reminiscing, it’s time for this week’s rankings, presented with 22.1% reliability:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

LSU

5

0

3.760

18

1

1

2

USC

4

0

3.366

34

2

2

3

South Florida

4

0

3.200

49

17

6

4

California

5

0

3.158

45

14

3

5

Kentucky

5

0

3.130

53

13

8

6

Wisconsin

5

0

2.949

62

6

5

7

Arizona St

5

0

2.940

58

10

18

8

Missouri

4

0

2.912

65

8

17

9

Boston Coll

5

0

2.629

90

11

7

10

Ohio St

5

0

2.512

96

5

4

11

Oregon

4

1

2.466

13

4

14

12

Nebraska

4

1

2.309

24

16

25

13

South Carolina

4

1

2.167

35

29

11

14

Florida St

3

1

2.167

11

27

26

15

Florida

4

1

2.101

33

3

9

16

Illinois

4

1

2.074

44

24

28

17

Michigan St

4

1

2.034

41

9

32

18

Texas

4

1

2.009

42

7

19

19

Georgia

4

1

2.005

40

21

12

20

Connecticut

5

0

1.972

115

22

34

21

Cincinnati

5

0

1.960

116

25

20

22

West Virginia

4

1

1.957

47

20

13

23

Virginia

4

1

1.742

59

36

40

24

UCLA

4

1

1.724

54

39

30

25

Indiana

4

1

1.714

60

35

26

Hawaii

5

0

1.692

118

19

16

27

Virginia Tech

4

1

1.643

69

15

28

Kansas St

3

1

1.639

48

24

29

Purdue

5

0

1.611

119

23

30

Oklahoma

4

1

1.597

76

12

10

31

Tulsa

3

1

1.514

51

32

Auburn

3

2

1.503

21

29

33

Kansas

4

0

1.475

121

40

34

Wyoming

3

1

1.458

67

35

Texas A&M

4

1

1.447

88

31

36

Miami FL

4

1

1.412

91

27

37

Boise St

3

1

1.373

64

40

38

Colorado

3

2

1.287

9

36

39

BYU

3

2

1.266

12

40

Clemson

4

1

1.261

102

15

22

41

Bowling Green

3

1

1.205

85

42

Mississippi St

3

2

1.167

17

23

43

Alabama

3

2

1.118

20

35

44

Tennessee

2

2

1.003

1

45

Oklahoma St

3

2

0.962

30

46

Texas Tech

4

1

0.952

112

47

Wake Forest

2

2

0.899

5

48

Georgia Tech

3

2

0.896

37

49

Rutgers

3

1

0.884

107

18

21

50

Vanderbilt

3

1

0.807

108

51

UCF

3

1

0.662

113

37

52

New Mexico

3

2

0.500

66

53

Ball St

3

2

0.458

70

54

Air Force

3

2

0.457

71

55

Washington

2

3

0.418

3

43

56

Maryland

3

2

0.390

81

57

TCU

3

2

0.384

74

58

UTEP

3

2

0.354

87

59

Florida Atlantic

3

2

0.351

73

60

Arkansas

2

2

0.330

25

37

61

Akron

2

3

0.325

4

62

Kent St

3

2

0.310

84

63

Navy

3

2

0.301

92

64

New Mexico St

3

2

0.265

95

65

Troy

3

2

0.248

93

66

West Kentucky

3

2

0.134

104

67

Fresno St

2

2

0.102

43

68

Michigan

3

2

0.040

103

33

69

Oregon St

2

3

-0.054

14

70

Louisville

3

2

-0.090

109

71

Baylor

3

2

-0.101

111

72

Penn St

3

2

-0.157

114

39

73

Southern Miss

2

2

-0.184

79

74

Pittsburgh

2

3

-0.223

26

75

Arkansas St

2

2

-0.229

77

76

Nevada

2

2

-0.261

83

77

W Michigan

2

3

-0.327

32

78

Washington St

2

3

-0.350

31

79

Arizona

2

3

-0.385

36

80

East Carolina

2

3

-0.398

39

81

Houston

2

2

-0.412

97

82

UNLV

2

3

-0.442

46

83

Miami OH

2

3

-0.498

50

84

Stanford

1

3

-0.705

2

85

Northwestern

2

3

-0.750

75

86

Utah

2

3

-0.757

89

87

Ohio

2

3

-0.878

101

88

Army

2

3

-0.895

94

89

Iowa

2

3

-0.897

99

90

San Jose St

2

3

-0.912

100

91

Cent Michigan

2

3

-0.947

105

92

East Michigan

2

3

-1.078

110

93

Louisiana Tech

1

3

-1.144

19

94

Minnesota

1

4

-1.170

7

95

UAB

1

3

-1.207

28

96

San Diego St

1

3

-1.229

23

97

Mississippi

1

4

-1.240

6

98

Duke

1

4

-1.253

8

99

Tulane

1

3

-1.379

38

100

North Carolina

1

4

-1.534

27

101

NC St

1

4

-1.540

29

102

Syracuse

1

4

-1.716

57

103

Toledo

1

4

-1.756

63

104

Middle Tenn St

1

4

-1.765

56

105

Idaho

1

4

-1.917

80

106

SMU

1

4

-1.936

78

107

Memphis

1

3

-1.939

117

108

Buffalo

1

4

-1.957

98

109

Iowa St

1

4

-2.083

106

110

Others-Normal

0.50202

4.231313

-2.289

52

111

Northern Illinois

1

4

-2.425

120

112

LA Monroe

0

4

-2.685

10

113

Notre Dame

0

5

-2.740

15

114

Colorado St

0

4

-2.790

16

115

Marshall

0

4

-2.867

22

116

Florida Intl

0

5

-2.940

55

117

Temple

0

5

-3.027

72

118

Utah St

0

5

-3.032

68

119

Rice

0

4

-3.048

61

120

North Texas

0

4

-3.090

82

121

LA Lafayette

0

5

-3.102

86

Most overrated team: Honorable mention to Penn St, who doesn’t get the award only because they dropped out of the AP top-25. But they are still inexplicably getting votes, in that same irritating way that Miami kept getting votes in similar fashion last year. Honorable mention to Michigan. Yes, the Wolverines have won 3 straight, but their wins were over winless Notre Dame, overrated Penn St, and beaten-by-Duke Northwestern. As soon as Michigan beats a team worthy of note I might take interest, but it won’t be this week (they play Eastern Michigan… Sorry, Tim). The real most overrated team, however, is, sadly, Rutgers (3-1, AP#21, Hack#49). After last year, I’m on the Rutgers bandwagon too, but so far this year their victories have been over Buffalo, Navy, and Norfolk St, and if Maryland can run up and down the field on them they may face real problems when going up against even more high-powered offenses such as the one they will have to face next week at Cincinnati.

Most underrated team: Honorable mention to Michigan St, whose loss to Wisconsin dropped them only to #17 in the Hack Poll. Honorable mention to Nebraska, who is only ranked 25th in the AP poll despite beating everyone they have faced except for USC. The real most underrated team right now is Virginia (4-1, AP#40, Hack#23). Their win over Georgia Tech a week ago should have started raising eyebrows among the pollsters, but so far they still haven’t garnered much attention. They don’t face another conference opponent for three weeks, however, when they visit Maryland.

Interesting games next week:

(5) Kentucky vs. (13) South Carolina [Wildcats hit the meat of their SEC schedule the next three weeks with games against South Carolina, LSU, and Florida]

(6) Wisconsin vs. (16) Illinois [Fighting Illini trying to keep the momentum following big win over Penn St]

(30) Oklahoma vs. (18) Texas [Both teams were upset last week; tempers could flare in this rivalry game]

(27) Virginia Tech vs. (40) Clemson [Both teams are 4-1 against soft schedules]

(10) Ohio St vs. (29) Purdue [The only battle of 5-0 teams this week]

(15) Florida vs. (1) LSU [Game lost some of its luster following Gators’ upset loss to Auburn, but still should be an exciting SEC showdown]

(21) Cincinnati vs. (49) Rutgers [Can Scarlet Knights slow down the potent Bearcats’ offense?]

(12) Nebraska vs. (8) Missouri [Two teams that have flown under the radar so far get some attention]

(4) California BYE [Thank goodness. Longshore needs time to rest up and heal]