2011 Ratings, Week 5

Quite a few games between formerly undefeated teams this past weekend made for some entertaining early definition to some conference races.  A few games of note:

Upset of the week:  Kansas St scored 10 points in the 4^th quarter to eke out a win over Baylor, 36-35.  Baylor got a lot of early season press with its quarterback Robert Griffin, but K-St has quietly started 4-0.  The Wildcats’ strength-of-schedule isn’t great (ranked #75 at the moment), but  that is being affected partially by Miami’s slow start.

Yawner of the week:  Michigan over Minnesota, 58-0.  Michigan remains undefeated, while Minnesota is  1-4, with losses to New Mexico St and FCS opponent North Dakota St, and their only win coming over hapless Miami University (the one in Ohio, not in Florida).

Comeback of the week:  Illinois was down 28-10 midway through the 3^rd quarter before coming back to beat Northwestern, 38-35.  The Illini preserve their undefeated season, and they don’t face another ranked opponent until November, when they have back to back home games against Michigan and Wisconsin.

Game of the week:  Clemson has a habit of building up high expectations and then disappointing in big games, so most people were expecting them to lay an egg this past weekend at Virginia Tech, a team they had not beaten since 1989.  Clemson put on a defensive show and won, 23-3, completing a streak of 3 ranked opponents beaten.  Clemson is now 5-0, and #3 in the HackPoll.

And now, with 20.6% reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

Rank	Team		W-L	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Alabama		5-0	3.868	STR-11	Last-5	AP-2
2	Michigan		5-0	3.769	STR-14	Last-1	AP-12
3	Clemson		5-0	3.721	STR-16	Last-13	AP-8
4	Texas		4-0	3.715	STR-13	Last-6	AP-11
5	Oklahoma		4-0	3.508	STR-23	Last-10	AP-3
6	Oklahoma St		4-0	3.478	STR-25	Last-3	AP-6
7	Illinois		5-0	3.416	STR-28	Last-9	AP-19
8	LSU		5-0	3.222	STR-39	Last-7	AP-1
9	Boise St		4-0	3.116	STR-41	Last-15	AP-5
10	Georgia Tech		5-0	2.837	STR-63	Last-14	AP-13
11	Stanford		4-0	2.819	STR-62	Last-18	AP-7
12	Kansas St		4-0	2.673	STR-75	Last-28	AP-20
13	Nebraska		4-1	2.490	STR-17	Last-4	AP-14
14	South Carolina		4-1	2.473	STR-12	Last-2	AP-18
15	Auburn		4-1	2.306	STR-20	Last-29	AP-15
16	North Carolina		4-1	2.253	STR-26	Last-24
17	Wisconsin		5-0	2.251	STR-102	Last-35	AP-4
18	Washington		4-1	2.160	STR-30	Last-23	AP-28
19	West Virginia		4-1	2.137	STR-31	Last-32	AP-16
20	Rutgers		3-1	2.091	STR-18	Last-41
21	Virginia Tech		4-1	1.996	STR-37	Last-17	AP-21
22	Arizona St		4-1	1.969	STR-40	Last-19	AP-22
23	San Diego St		3-1	1.962	STR-27	Last-30
24	Houston		5-0	1.950	STR-113	Last-21	AP-27
25	Notre Dame		3-2	1.889	STR-1	Last-34	AP-30
26	Penn St		4-1	1.872	STR-50	Last-20	AP-33
27	Iowa St		3-1	1.862	STR-33	Last-12
28	Florida		4-1	1.852	STR-47	Last-16	AP-17
29	South Florida		4-1	1.839	STR-43	Last-8	AP-31
30	USC		4-1	1.794	STR-52	Last-22	AP-34
31	Arkansas		4-1	1.639	STR-66		AP-10
32	Baylor		3-1	1.625	STR-45	Last-11	AP-25
33	Texas Tech		4-0	1.613	STR-120		AP-29
34	LA Lafayette		4-1	1.468	STR-78	Last-25
35	Tennessee		3-1	1.324	STR-70		AP-36
36	Ohio		4-1	1.282	STR-91
37	Oregon		3-1	1.275	STR-69		AP-9
38	Michigan St		4-1	1.211	STR-92		AP-26
39	Vanderbilt		3-1	1.193	STR-77
40	Iowa		3-1	1.164	STR-81
41	SMU		4-1	1.147	STR-100		AP-35
42	W Michigan		3-2	1.080	STR-22
43	Wyoming		3-1	1.064	STR-86
44	Southern Miss		4-1	0.982	STR-107
45	California		3-1	0.968	STR-93
46	Syracuse		3-2	0.916	STR-34
47	Texas A&M		2-2	0.874	STR-10		AP-24
48	Georgia		3-2	0.837	STR-38		AP-32
49	BYU		3-2	0.723	STR-44
50	Washington St		3-1	0.721	STR-109
51	Cincinnati		4-1	0.682	STR-118		AP-36
52	Pittsburgh		3-2	0.654	STR-55		AP-36
53	Ball St		3-2	0.626	STR-59
54	TCU		3-2	0.625	STR-60
55	Wake Forest		3-1	0.623	STR-112
56	Florida Intl		3-2	0.581	STR-56
57	Air Force		3-1	0.541	STR-116
58	Florida St		2-2	0.467	STR-21		AP-23
59	Marshall		2-3	0.447	STR-3
60	Utah		2-2	0.445	STR-24
61	Kansas		2-2	0.413	STR-29
62	East Michigan		3-2	0.386	STR-72
63	Tulsa		2-3	0.252	STR-8
64	Ohio St		3-2	0.231	STR-87
65	Arkansas St		3-2	0.221	STR-88
66	Troy		2-2	0.183	STR-35
67	Temple		3-2	0.132	STR-97
68	UCLA		2-3	0.119	STR-9
69	Virginia		3-2	0.114	STR-101
70	Miami FL		2-2	0.110	STR-54
71	Duke		3-2	0.108	STR-96
72	Maryland		2-2	0.003	STR-58
73	Bowling Green		3-2	-0.075	STR-111
74	Missouri		2-2	-0.098	STR-68
75	Hawaii		3-2	-0.216	STR-114
76	UTEP		2-3	-0.274	STR-32
77	Toledo		2-3	-0.337	STR-42
78	Mississippi St		2-3	-0.344	STR-36
79	Northwestern		2-2	-0.365	STR-90
80	Louisville		2-2	-0.416	STR-95
81	Navy		2-2	-0.470	STR-105
82	Kentucky		2-3	-0.502	STR-49
83	UCF		2-2	-0.563	STR-108
84	NC St		2-3	-0.569	STR-61
85	San Jose St		2-3	-0.576	STR-64
86	Nevada		1-3	-0.578	STR-4
87	Army		2-3	-0.578	STR-67
88	Rice		1-3	-0.625	STR-5
89	Purdue		2-2	-0.660	STR-110
90	Mississippi		2-3	-0.680	STR-74
91	Connecticut		2-3	-0.720	STR-80
92	Northern Illinois		2-3	-0.728	STR-76
93	Cent Michigan		2-3	-0.776	STR-79
94	Colorado St		3-2	-0.832	STR-121
95	Fresno St		2-3	-0.881	STR-94
96	Kent St		1-4	-1.084	STR-6
97	East Carolina		1-3	-1.088	STR-15
98	Arizona		1-4	-1.126	STR-7
99	New Mexico St		2-3	-1.187	STR-115
100	UNLV		1-3	-1.311	STR-51
101	Tulane		2-3	-1.338	STR-119
102	North Texas		1-4	-1.359	STR-19
103	Middle Tenn St		1-3	-1.461	STR-65
104	Colorado		1-4	-1.465	STR-46
105	Utah St		1-3	-1.527	STR-73
106	LA Monroe		1-3	-1.563	STR-82
107	Louisiana Tech		1-4	-1.702	STR-57
108	Akron		1-4	-1.785	STR-71
109	Buffalo		1-4	-1.857	STR-83
110	Indiana		1-4	-1.926	STR-84
111	Boston Coll		1-4	-1.969	STR-103
112	Idaho		1-4	-2.007	STR-106
113	Minnesota		1-4	-2.020	STR-85
114	Memphis		1-4	-2.047	STR-104
115	Florida Atlantic		0-4	-2.352	STR-2
116	FCS		6-83	-2.443	STR-53
117	Oregon St		0-4	-2.911	STR-48
118	New Mexico		0-5	-3.002	STR-89
119	Miami OH		0-4	-3.039	STR-99
120	UAB		0-4	-3.047	STR-98
121	West Kentucky		0-4	-3.215	STR-117

Most overrated:  Florida St (AP#23, Hack #58).  The Seminoles jumped 5 spots in my ratings this week, but that is due primarily to Clemson’s victory over a previously undefeated opponent.  FSU will have an opportunity to move up more this week, though, coming off a bye week to play 3-1 Wake Forest.

Most underrated:  Illinois (AP#19, Hack#7).  The Illini are probably quite happy with Wisconsin garnering all the attention in their division of the Big10-plus-2.  Meanwhile, they have 3 very winnable games next on their schedule: at Indiana, home against rebuilding Ohio St, and at Purdue, so 8-0 is a very real possibility.

Interesting games next week:

(5) Oklahoma vs. (4) Texas  [Red River Shootout between undefeated teams again]

(28) Florida vs. (8) LSU  [Alabama got a big ratings jump by beating Florida last week; LSU has a chance to follow suit this week]

(15) Auburn vs. (31) Arkansas  [Prevailing wisdom is that LSU or Alabama will win the SEC West, but after last week’s win at South Carolina, Auburn made a statement that they still want to be in the discussion]

(45) California vs. (37) Oregon  [Cal hasn’t beaten the Ducks since my wedding day]

(69) Virginia vs. BYE  [The Cavaliers needed overtime to survive with a win over Idaho, now they get an extra week off to prepare for undefeated Georgia Tech]