2011 Ratings, Week 7

The first BCS rankings came out this week, and the big story surrounding them is who is atop the computer part of the rankings: Oklahoma St!  Matt Hinton of rivals.com seemed especially perplexed at this development, wondering if the computers were attracted to the Cowboys’ new uniforms.  No Matt, it’s not their uniforms, it’s their strength of schedule.  On the surface, OSU’s strength of schedule (ranked #5) wouldn’t seem to stack up against LSU’s (ranked #31).  After all, LSU already has wins over 4 teams that were ranked at the time: Oregon, Mississippi St, Florida, and West Virginia.  But Oregon and West Virginia are themselves overrated (based again on strengths of schedule), and Florida and Mississippi St are no longer ranked (MSU has dropped all the way to #74).  Meanwhile, OSU has wins over Texas and Texas A&M (who are both 4-2 against the 2 toughest schedules in the country to date) and over surprisingly good Louisiana-Lafayette (6-1, #32, and itself with a win over preseason Sun Belt Conference favorite Florida International).  The computers don’t care about preseason expectations or about how badly you blow out your opponent, and that’s why I believe they are superior to the human polls.  As far as Oklahoma St goes, they are still underdogs to Oklahoma when it comes to winning the Big12(minus 2), but they do have the advantage that they get to face both Kansas St and Oklahoma (both currently undefeated) at home later this year.

Upset of the week:  My nephew will be glad that Virginia wins this week, with its 24-21 upset of previously unbeaten Georgia Tech.  The Cavaliers used their bye week well and executed a good game plan – they led 14-0 after one quarter and 24-14 at halftime.

Yawner of the week: Temple wins this award for the second week in a row, beating Buffalo 34-0.  Temple has now gone nearly 132 game minutes, or almost 9 quarters, without allowing an opponent to score.

Comeback of the week: Clemson recovered from two 18-point deficits to beat Maryland, 56-45, to stay unbeaten.  The Tigers’ usually stout defense looked vulnerable to the Terrapins’ game plan, which could be a cause for concern as Clemson enters a challenging 3-game stretch against North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest.

Game of the week: Michigan St played Michigan tough for the first half, and then the Spartans took over the game in the 3^rd quarter to win 28-14.  MSU dealt Michigan its first loss, and simultaneously stayed alive in the Big10(plus 2) championship picture.  Even with the win, however, MSU’s strength-of-schedule remains low enough(#76) that it still hasn’t cracked my top-25.

And now, with 66.8% reliability (yay – next week I can claim 100%), here are this week’s rankings:

Rank	Team		W-L	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Oklahoma St		6-0	5.149	STR-5	Last-3	AP-6
2	Oklahoma		6-0	4.914	STR-10	Last-2	AP-3
3	Boise St		6-0	4.649	STR-21	Last-6	AP-5
4	Alabama		7-0	4.604	STR-31	Last-1	AP-2
5	LSU		7-0	4.559	STR-35	Last-4	AP-1
6	Clemson		7-0	4.050	STR-58	Last-8	AP-8
7	Kansas St		6-0	3.861	STR-69	Last-11	AP-12
8	Nebraska		5-1	3.397	STR-18	Last-15	AP-13
9	Stanford		6-0	3.395	STR-94	Last-12	AP-7
10	Virginia Tech		6-1	3.380	STR-28	Last-24	AP-16
11	Michigan		6-1	3.373	STR-27	Last-5	AP-18
12	Penn St		6-1	3.176	STR-43	Last-22	AP-26
13	Houston		6-0	3.128	STR-105	Last-17	AP-21
14	South Carolina		6-1	3.123	STR-39	Last-20	AP-14
15	Oregon		5-1	3.052	STR-37	Last-27	AP-9
16	Wisconsin		6-0	2.967	STR-112	Last-13	AP-4
17	Arkansas		5-1	2.948	STR-44	Last-18	AP-10
18	Texas		4-2	2.854	STR-1	Last-9	AP-31
19	Texas A&M		4-2	2.796	STR-2	Last-31	AP-17
20	USC		5-1	2.678	STR-52	Last-28	AP-28
21	West Virginia		5-1	2.628	STR-60	Last-25	AP-11
22	Illinois		6-1	2.604	STR-71	Last-7	AP-23
23	Rutgers		5-1	2.579	STR-62	Last-19	AP-34
24	Auburn		5-2	2.536	STR-11	Last-29	AP-19
25	Georgia Tech		6-1	2.399	STR-85	Last-10	AP-20
26	Michigan St		5-1	2.398	STR-76		AP-15
27	Washington		5-1	2.292	STR-86		AP-22
28	SMU		5-1	2.258	STR-90		AP-29
29	Notre Dame		4-2	2.249	STR-6	Last-23	AP-27
30	Arizona St		5-2	2.227	STR-29	Last-21	AP-24
31	Georgia		5-2	2.192	STR-26		AP-25
32	LA Lafayette		6-1	2.075	STR-106
33	North Carolina		5-2	1.952	STR-45	Last-14
34	Baylor		4-2	1.805	STR-32	Last-16	AP-29
35	Southern Miss		5-1	1.757	STR-107		AP-32
36	Syracuse		4-2	1.637	STR-46
37	TCU		4-2	1.413	STR-57
38	BYU		5-2	1.364	STR-78
39	Cincinnati		5-1	1.361	STR-117		AP-32
40	Temple		5-2	1.319	STR-83
41	San Diego St		4-2	1.268	STR-63
42	Wake Forest		4-2	1.239	STR-67		AP-34
43	Ohio St		4-3	1.168	STR-19
44	Virginia		4-2	1.092	STR-82
45	Texas Tech		4-2	1.086	STR-79
46	Toledo		4-3	1.085	STR-25
47	South Florida		4-2	1.045	STR-75
48	Florida Intl		4-2	0.919	STR-88
49	Florida		4-3	0.884	STR-36
50	Iowa		4-2	0.874	STR-92
51	Arkansas St		4-2	0.812	STR-96
52	UCLA		3-3	0.807	STR-7
53	Miami FL		3-3	0.766	STR-8
54	Ball St		4-3	0.676	STR-54
55	Utah		3-3	0.651	STR-16
56	Missouri		3-3	0.645	STR-12
57	Florida St		3-3	0.584	STR-13
58	Vanderbilt		3-3	0.549	STR-15
59	Tulsa		3-3	0.544	STR-22
60	Tennessee		3-3	0.533	STR-23
61	W Michigan		4-3	0.527	STR-65
62	East Michigan		4-3	0.178	STR-91
63	Nevada		3-3	0.152	STR-48
64	Wyoming		4-2	0.150	STR-119
65	Iowa St		3-3	0.137	STR-53
66	California		3-3	0.113	STR-59
67	UTEP		3-3	0.072	STR-64
68	Marshall		3-4	0.061	STR-14
69	Ohio		4-3	-0.075	STR-104
70	UCF		3-3	-0.129	STR-73
71	Northern Illinois		4-3	-0.141	STR-109
72	San Jose St		3-4	-0.186	STR-38
73	NC St		3-3	-0.322	STR-93
74	Mississippi St		3-4	-0.344	STR-42
75	Kansas		2-4	-0.359	STR-3
76	Pittsburgh		3-4	-0.385	STR-51
77	Washington St		3-3	-0.429	STR-98
78	Air Force		3-3	-0.437	STR-97
79	Maryland		2-4	-0.464	STR-4
80	Duke		3-3	-0.501	STR-101
81	Connecticut		3-4	-0.623	STR-74
82	Purdue		3-3	-0.625	STR-103
83	Fresno St		3-4	-0.814	STR-87
84	Bowling Green		3-4	-0.941	STR-100
85	Mississippi		2-4	-0.944	STR-30
86	Colorado St		3-3	-0.966	STR-115
87	East Carolina		2-4	-0.978	STR-33
88	Hawaii		3-3	-1.008	STR-118
89	Kentucky		2-4	-1.098	STR-40
90	Rice		2-4	-1.157	STR-55
91	New Mexico St		3-3	-1.166	STR-120
92	Navy		2-4	-1.167	STR-47
93	Troy		2-4	-1.286	STR-50
94	Louisville		2-4	-1.313	STR-66
95	North Texas		2-5	-1.314	STR-20
96	Utah St		2-4	-1.343	STR-72
97	LA Monroe		2-4	-1.425	STR-77
98	Northwestern		2-4	-1.441	STR-68
99	Louisiana Tech		2-4	-1.603	STR-95
100	Army		2-4	-1.674	STR-102
101	Cent Michigan		2-5	-1.791	STR-80
102	Buffalo		2-5	-1.827	STR-89
103	Miami OH		2-4	-1.904	STR-113
104	Arizona		1-5	-2.206	STR-9
105	Tulane		2-5	-2.358	STR-116
106	Colorado		1-6	-2.458	STR-34
107	West Kentucky		2-4	-2.463	STR-121
108	Akron		1-5	-2.504	STR-49
109	Indiana		1-6	-2.505	STR-17
110	Kent St		1-6	-2.554	STR-24
111	Oregon St		1-5	-2.618	STR-56
112	UNLV		1-5	-2.689	STR-84
113	Boston Coll		1-5	-2.725	STR-70
114	Minnesota		1-5	-2.771	STR-81
115	Middle Tenn St		1-4	-2.881	STR-114
116	Idaho		1-6	-3.140	STR-108
117	Memphis		1-6	-3.244	STR-110
118	FCS		6-83	-3.396	STR-61
119	Florida Atlantic		0-6	-3.863	STR-41
120	New Mexico		0-6	-4.129	STR-99
121	UAB		0-6	-4.264	STR-111

 

Most overrated: West Virginia (5-1, AP#11, Hack #21).  The Mountaineers’ best win was over #68 Marshall, and their other victories are over #79 Maryland, #81 Connecticut, and #84 Bowling Green (and FCS Norfolk St).  Not a convincing resume.  Their best remaining game is in two weeks against #23 Rutgers.

Most underrated: Penn St (6-1, AP#26, Hack #12).  The Nittany Lions are probably being punished by the voters because they struggled against teams like Temple and Purdue and because their offense isn’t putting up a lot of yards or points.  But as we have seen earlier, Temple is pretty good, and PSU’s defense has being picking up the slack.  The ‘Lions enter the meat of their schedule in two weeks, facing Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio St, and Wisconsin as their last four opponents.

Interesting games this week:

(25) Auburn vs. (5) LSU  [LSU looks to bolster its strength of schedule]

(16) Wisconsin vs. (26) Michigan St  [In its quest to finish undefeated, this is probably Wisconsin’s biggest road test]

(27) Washington vs. (9) Stanford  [Huskies are 3-0 in the Pac-10, but can they keep up with Cardinal tight ends, especially on the road?]

(55) Utah vs. (66) California  [Cal probably needs to win 3 of its next 4 games to get to a bowl]

(73) NC St vs. (44) Virginia  [Two middle of the pack ACC teams]