Iowa beat Indiana, Florida beat Georgia, and Texas beat Oklahoma St. The relative strengths-of-schedule of these three unbeaten teams has jockeyed around to the point that there is basically no separating them. And this is leading me to second-guess my BCS predictions. Sort of…
One thing is almost certain – given that Florida will likely play either unbeaten Alabama or 1-loss LSU in the SEC championship, and given that all three will likely be in the top 10 in the BCS standings at the time, it is virtually guaranteed that the SEC champion will be in the national championship game, even if they have a loss. But what about the other spot?
Two weeks ago, I picked Iowa. Texas did not look invincible to me, whereas Iowa’s stifling defense seemed capable of holding back inexperienced Terrell Pryor and Ohio St’s underperforming offense. Now, though, even though Texas still has rivalry games coming up against Texas Tech and Texas A&M as well as the Big-12 championship against (likely) Kansas St, the Longhorns seem less likely to have a letdown than I originally thought, and the voters seem willing to send Texas to the National Championship now as long as they win out. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise St all have reasonable chances to finish undefeated, but none of them has a resume that can match Texas or Iowa’s, so it is unlikely for them to have a sniff at the national championship.
I’m tempted to replace Iowa with Texas in my NCG prediction, but to do so would be to admit defeat in what is inherently unfair about the BCS system: that Iowa would be denied a chance to play for the national title simply because nobody thought that they could before the season started. So, more as an act of defiance than anything else, I’m leaving Iowa in my NCG.
Meanwhile, you may ask why I’m picking the Rose Bowl to feature the Oregon-Boise St rematch, reopening LaGarrett Blount scabs in the process. The answer is, simply, that this year the Rose Bowl is required to take the BCS buster if either the Pac-10 or Big-10 champ goes to the NCG. Since I have Iowa going to the NCG, the Rose Bowl will have to take either Boise St or TCU. Right now, the Rose Bowl is rooting hard for Texas to win out (so that they can have an Oregon-Iowa matchup, which would be very entertaining), or secondarily for TCU to win out (so that at least they could take the Horned Frogs instead of the Broncos). As I have said previously, though, until TCU beats Utah, I’m leaving Boise St in my Rose Bowl projection
And now, the weekly awards:
Upset of the week: Not too many earth-shattering upsets this week. I’m going with South Florida’s 30-19 win over West Virginia. The Big East is going to get really interesting over the next few weeks as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia still all have to play each other.
Comeback of the week: Iowa scored 28 points in the 4th quarter to survive against Indiana, 42-24. Iowa has come back from 10-point deficits twice earlier this season, but they did so with defense, not with a point-scoring explosion.
Yawner of the week: Ohio St over New Mexico St, 45-0. The NMSU coach said in the 4th quarter that his team was just trying to be able to get out of Columbus healthy.
Game of the week: In the absence of a really marquee thrilling game, I’m going to go ahead and pick Cal’s 23-21 victory over Arizona St. For the first time in his career, Kevin Riley led a 2-minute drill at the end of the game to give his team a winning score, and Cal’s shaky kicking game redeemed itself with a last-second field goal. Cal is bowl eligible for the seventh straight year.
And now, the rankings:
Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Florida 8-0 6.150 STR-20 Last-4 AP-1
2 Texas 8-0 6.080 STR-23 Last-3 AP-2
3 Iowa 9-0 6.012 STR-30 Last-1 AP-8
4 Alabama 8-0 5.770 STR-32 Last-2 AP-3
5 Cincinnati 8-0 5.272 STR-56 Last-6 AP-4
6 Oregon 7-1 5.249 STR-7 Last-7 AP-7
7 TCU 8-0 5.097 STR-69 Last-5 AP-6
8 Boise St 8-0 4.387 STR-101 Last-9 AP-5
9 LSU 7-1 4.352 STR-34 Last-8 AP-9
10 Georgia Tech 8-1 4.258 STR-42 Last-11 AP-10
11 Penn St 8-1 4.060 STR-54 Last-14 AP-11
12 Pittsburgh 7-1 3.835 STR-52 Last-13 AP-14
13 Houston 7-1 3.629 STR-66 Last-16 AP-13
14 USC 6-2 3.629 STR-8 Last-12 AP-12
15 Utah 7-1 3.535 STR-83 Last-18 AP-17
16 Wisconsin 6-2 3.427 STR-17 Last-20 AP-24
17 Virginia Tech 5-3 3.407 STR-2 Last-10 AP-22
18 Miami FL 6-2 3.376 STR-18 Last-23 AP-16
19 Arizona 5-2 3.014 STR-16 Last-19 AP-21
20 Ohio St 7-2 2.998 STR-43 Last-22 AP-15
21 Oklahoma St 6-2 2.942 STR-38 Last-17 AP-18
22 Notre Dame 6-2 2.850 STR-36 Last-21 AP-19
23 West Virginia 6-2 2.588 STR-53 Last-15 AP-30
24 BYU 6-2 2.535 STR-55 Last-26 AP-25
25 California 6-2 2.428 STR-72 Last-28 AP-23
26 South Florida 6-2 2.422 STR-81 AP-26
27 Troy 6-2 2.253 STR-80
28 Boston Coll 6-3 2.092 STR-35 AP-32
29 Clemson 5-3 2.076 STR-15 AP-27
30 Auburn 6-3 2.023 STR-37 AP-28
31 Rutgers 6-2 2.010 STR-96 AP-31
32 Oklahoma 5-3 1.981 STR-25 AP-20
33 Idaho 7-2 1.955 STR-104 AP-36
34 Oregon St 5-3 1.817 STR-31 AP-33
35 Cent Michigan 7-2 1.778 STR-111 Last-25 AP-33
36 Texas Tech 6-3 1.661 STR-67 AP-29
37 Minnesota 5-4 1.563 STR-9
38 Navy 6-3 1.522 STR-76
39 South Carolina 6-3 1.483 STR-79 Last-24 AP-37
40 Missouri 5-3 1.428 STR-46
41 Nebraska 5-3 1.357 STR-44
42 Temple 6-2 1.176 STR-116 AP-37
43 North Carolina 5-3 1.158 STR-62
44 Fresno St 5-3 1.147 STR-73
45 Georgia 4-4 1.117 STR-4
46 Mississippi 5-3 1.104 STR-75
47 Texas A&M 5-3 1.007 STR-82
48 Kansas 5-3 0.999 STR-78
49 Florida St 4-4 0.988 STR-10
50 Nevada 5-3 0.952 STR-84
51 Tennessee 4-4 0.945 STR-11 AP-35
52 Kentucky 4-4 0.906 STR-12
53 Stanford 5-3 0.889 STR-90
54 Iowa St 5-4 0.761 STR-41
55 Marshall 5-3 0.759 STR-93
56 Washington 3-5 0.646 STR-1
57 Arkansas 4-4 0.603 STR-28
58 East Carolina 5-3 0.588 STR-103
59 Air Force 5-4 0.571 STR-57
60 Mississippi St 4-5 0.475 STR-6
61 Michigan 5-4 0.442 STR-63
62 Connecticut 4-4 0.407 STR-33
63 Northern Illinois 5-3 0.352 STR-110
64 Middle Tenn St 5-3 0.193 STR-113
65 SMU 4-4 0.099 STR-45
66 Michigan St 4-5 0.091 STR-19
67 Ohio 6-3 0.001 STR-121
68 Kansas St 5-4 -0.007 STR-97
69 Duke 5-3 -0.021 STR-117
70 Southern Miss 5-4 -0.123 STR-100
71 UCLA 3-5 -0.215 STR-3
72 Arizona St 4-4 -0.240 STR-87
73 UCF 4-3 -0.284 STR-114
74 LA Monroe 4-4 -0.313 STR-86
75 Northwestern 5-4 -0.339 STR-109
76 Kent St 5-4 -0.462 STR-112
77 Bowling Green 3-5 -0.583 STR-27
78 Wake Forest 4-5 -0.583 STR-60
79 Wyoming 4-4 -0.602 STR-99
80 Syracuse 3-5 -0.732 STR-24
81 Louisville 3-5 -0.741 STR-22
82 San Diego St 4-4 -0.745 STR-106
83 Purdue 3-6 -0.869 STR-13
84 Indiana 4-5 -0.891 STR-88
85 Virginia 3-5 -1.084 STR-40
86 UTEP 3-5 -1.086 STR-49
87 Tulsa 4-4 -1.088 STR-120
88 LA Lafayette 4-4 -1.112 STR-119
89 Colorado St 3-6 -1.141 STR-21
90 Baylor 3-5 -1.158 STR-50
91 W Michigan 4-5 -1.165 STR-102
92 NC St 3-5 -1.288 STR-74
93 UAB 3-5 -1.302 STR-68
94 Toledo 4-5 -1.340 STR-108
95 Buffalo 3-5 -1.500 STR-85
96 Louisiana Tech 3-5 -1.704 STR-94
97 UNLV 3-6 -1.731 STR-58
98 Colorado 2-6 -2.000 STR-26
99 Army 3-5 -2.115 STR-115
100 Arkansas St 2-5 -2.213 STR-51
101 Florida Atlantic 2-5 -2.247 STR-77
102 Tulane 2-6 -2.349 STR-39
103 New Mexico St 3-6 -2.349 STR-107
104 Illinois 2-6 -2.448 STR-47
105 Maryland 2-6 -2.452 STR-59
106 Utah St 2-6 -2.555 STR-61
107 Florida Intl 2-6 -2.631 STR-70
108 Memphis 2-6 -2.705 STR-91
109 Hawaii 2-6 -2.793 STR-89
110 North Texas 2-6 -2.960 STR-98
111 Vanderbilt 2-7 -2.975 STR-65
112 San Jose St 1-6 -3.028 STR-5
113 Washington St 1-7 -3.302 STR-14
114 Miami OH 1-8 -3.591 STR-29
115 Akron 1-7 -3.965 STR-71
116 Others-Normal -4.501 STR-48
117 Ball St 1-8 -4.667 STR-118
118 Rice 0-8 -5.234 STR-64
119 New Mexico 0-8 -5.382 STR-95
120 East Michigan 0-8 -5.396 STR-92
121 West Kentucky 0-8 -5.559 STR-105
Most overrated team: Oklahoma (5-3, AP#20, Hack#32) Same reasons as last week.
Most underrated team: Wisconsin (6-2, AP#24, Hack#16) Same reasons as last week.
BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions:
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida
Interesting games this week:
(9) LSU vs. (4) Alabama [Winner likely to face Florida in SEC championship]
(48) Kansas vs. (68) Kansas St [The Big-12 North is wide open right now, but K-St controls its own fate in trying to reach the Big-12 championship]
(20) Ohio St vs. (11) Penn St [If Penn St wins, Iowa can win the Big 10 even if they lose to Ohio St next week]
(62) Connecticut vs. (5) Cincinnati [Bearcats continue to hope that Iowa and Texas lose]
(6) Oregon vs. (53) Stanford [Ducks can’t afford to look past the suddenly respectable Cardinal]
(7) TCU vs. (82) San Diego St [Horned Frogs continue to make their case for a BCS bid]
(44) Fresno St vs. (33) Idaho [I only picked this game because of the novelty of two middle-of-the-road WAC teams being above .500 at this point in the season]
(49) Florida St vs. (29) Clemson [As bad as FSU has looked, they are not out of the running for a berth in the ACC championship]
(34) Oregon St vs. (25) California [Kevin Riley got one monkey off his back last week at ASU – can he do it again this week against the Beavers?]
One thing is almost certain – given that Florida will likely play either unbeaten Alabama or 1-loss LSU in the SEC championship, and given that all three will likely be in the top 10 in the BCS standings at the time, it is virtually guaranteed that the SEC champion will be in the national championship game, even if they have a loss. But what about the other spot?
Two weeks ago, I picked Iowa. Texas did not look invincible to me, whereas Iowa’s stifling defense seemed capable of holding back inexperienced Terrell Pryor and Ohio St’s underperforming offense. Now, though, even though Texas still has rivalry games coming up against Texas Tech and Texas A&M as well as the Big-12 championship against (likely) Kansas St, the Longhorns seem less likely to have a letdown than I originally thought, and the voters seem willing to send Texas to the National Championship now as long as they win out. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise St all have reasonable chances to finish undefeated, but none of them has a resume that can match Texas or Iowa’s, so it is unlikely for them to have a sniff at the national championship.
I’m tempted to replace Iowa with Texas in my NCG prediction, but to do so would be to admit defeat in what is inherently unfair about the BCS system: that Iowa would be denied a chance to play for the national title simply because nobody thought that they could before the season started. So, more as an act of defiance than anything else, I’m leaving Iowa in my NCG.
Meanwhile, you may ask why I’m picking the Rose Bowl to feature the Oregon-Boise St rematch, reopening LaGarrett Blount scabs in the process. The answer is, simply, that this year the Rose Bowl is required to take the BCS buster if either the Pac-10 or Big-10 champ goes to the NCG. Since I have Iowa going to the NCG, the Rose Bowl will have to take either Boise St or TCU. Right now, the Rose Bowl is rooting hard for Texas to win out (so that they can have an Oregon-Iowa matchup, which would be very entertaining), or secondarily for TCU to win out (so that at least they could take the Horned Frogs instead of the Broncos). As I have said previously, though, until TCU beats Utah, I’m leaving Boise St in my Rose Bowl projection
And now, the weekly awards:
Upset of the week: Not too many earth-shattering upsets this week. I’m going with South Florida’s 30-19 win over West Virginia. The Big East is going to get really interesting over the next few weeks as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia still all have to play each other.
Comeback of the week: Iowa scored 28 points in the 4th quarter to survive against Indiana, 42-24. Iowa has come back from 10-point deficits twice earlier this season, but they did so with defense, not with a point-scoring explosion.
Yawner of the week: Ohio St over New Mexico St, 45-0. The NMSU coach said in the 4th quarter that his team was just trying to be able to get out of Columbus healthy.
Game of the week: In the absence of a really marquee thrilling game, I’m going to go ahead and pick Cal’s 23-21 victory over Arizona St. For the first time in his career, Kevin Riley led a 2-minute drill at the end of the game to give his team a winning score, and Cal’s shaky kicking game redeemed itself with a last-second field goal. Cal is bowl eligible for the seventh straight year.
And now, the rankings:
Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Florida 8-0 6.150 STR-20 Last-4 AP-1
2 Texas 8-0 6.080 STR-23 Last-3 AP-2
3 Iowa 9-0 6.012 STR-30 Last-1 AP-8
4 Alabama 8-0 5.770 STR-32 Last-2 AP-3
5 Cincinnati 8-0 5.272 STR-56 Last-6 AP-4
6 Oregon 7-1 5.249 STR-7 Last-7 AP-7
7 TCU 8-0 5.097 STR-69 Last-5 AP-6
8 Boise St 8-0 4.387 STR-101 Last-9 AP-5
9 LSU 7-1 4.352 STR-34 Last-8 AP-9
10 Georgia Tech 8-1 4.258 STR-42 Last-11 AP-10
11 Penn St 8-1 4.060 STR-54 Last-14 AP-11
12 Pittsburgh 7-1 3.835 STR-52 Last-13 AP-14
13 Houston 7-1 3.629 STR-66 Last-16 AP-13
14 USC 6-2 3.629 STR-8 Last-12 AP-12
15 Utah 7-1 3.535 STR-83 Last-18 AP-17
16 Wisconsin 6-2 3.427 STR-17 Last-20 AP-24
17 Virginia Tech 5-3 3.407 STR-2 Last-10 AP-22
18 Miami FL 6-2 3.376 STR-18 Last-23 AP-16
19 Arizona 5-2 3.014 STR-16 Last-19 AP-21
20 Ohio St 7-2 2.998 STR-43 Last-22 AP-15
21 Oklahoma St 6-2 2.942 STR-38 Last-17 AP-18
22 Notre Dame 6-2 2.850 STR-36 Last-21 AP-19
23 West Virginia 6-2 2.588 STR-53 Last-15 AP-30
24 BYU 6-2 2.535 STR-55 Last-26 AP-25
25 California 6-2 2.428 STR-72 Last-28 AP-23
26 South Florida 6-2 2.422 STR-81 AP-26
27 Troy 6-2 2.253 STR-80
28 Boston Coll 6-3 2.092 STR-35 AP-32
29 Clemson 5-3 2.076 STR-15 AP-27
30 Auburn 6-3 2.023 STR-37 AP-28
31 Rutgers 6-2 2.010 STR-96 AP-31
32 Oklahoma 5-3 1.981 STR-25 AP-20
33 Idaho 7-2 1.955 STR-104 AP-36
34 Oregon St 5-3 1.817 STR-31 AP-33
35 Cent Michigan 7-2 1.778 STR-111 Last-25 AP-33
36 Texas Tech 6-3 1.661 STR-67 AP-29
37 Minnesota 5-4 1.563 STR-9
38 Navy 6-3 1.522 STR-76
39 South Carolina 6-3 1.483 STR-79 Last-24 AP-37
40 Missouri 5-3 1.428 STR-46
41 Nebraska 5-3 1.357 STR-44
42 Temple 6-2 1.176 STR-116 AP-37
43 North Carolina 5-3 1.158 STR-62
44 Fresno St 5-3 1.147 STR-73
45 Georgia 4-4 1.117 STR-4
46 Mississippi 5-3 1.104 STR-75
47 Texas A&M 5-3 1.007 STR-82
48 Kansas 5-3 0.999 STR-78
49 Florida St 4-4 0.988 STR-10
50 Nevada 5-3 0.952 STR-84
51 Tennessee 4-4 0.945 STR-11 AP-35
52 Kentucky 4-4 0.906 STR-12
53 Stanford 5-3 0.889 STR-90
54 Iowa St 5-4 0.761 STR-41
55 Marshall 5-3 0.759 STR-93
56 Washington 3-5 0.646 STR-1
57 Arkansas 4-4 0.603 STR-28
58 East Carolina 5-3 0.588 STR-103
59 Air Force 5-4 0.571 STR-57
60 Mississippi St 4-5 0.475 STR-6
61 Michigan 5-4 0.442 STR-63
62 Connecticut 4-4 0.407 STR-33
63 Northern Illinois 5-3 0.352 STR-110
64 Middle Tenn St 5-3 0.193 STR-113
65 SMU 4-4 0.099 STR-45
66 Michigan St 4-5 0.091 STR-19
67 Ohio 6-3 0.001 STR-121
68 Kansas St 5-4 -0.007 STR-97
69 Duke 5-3 -0.021 STR-117
70 Southern Miss 5-4 -0.123 STR-100
71 UCLA 3-5 -0.215 STR-3
72 Arizona St 4-4 -0.240 STR-87
73 UCF 4-3 -0.284 STR-114
74 LA Monroe 4-4 -0.313 STR-86
75 Northwestern 5-4 -0.339 STR-109
76 Kent St 5-4 -0.462 STR-112
77 Bowling Green 3-5 -0.583 STR-27
78 Wake Forest 4-5 -0.583 STR-60
79 Wyoming 4-4 -0.602 STR-99
80 Syracuse 3-5 -0.732 STR-24
81 Louisville 3-5 -0.741 STR-22
82 San Diego St 4-4 -0.745 STR-106
83 Purdue 3-6 -0.869 STR-13
84 Indiana 4-5 -0.891 STR-88
85 Virginia 3-5 -1.084 STR-40
86 UTEP 3-5 -1.086 STR-49
87 Tulsa 4-4 -1.088 STR-120
88 LA Lafayette 4-4 -1.112 STR-119
89 Colorado St 3-6 -1.141 STR-21
90 Baylor 3-5 -1.158 STR-50
91 W Michigan 4-5 -1.165 STR-102
92 NC St 3-5 -1.288 STR-74
93 UAB 3-5 -1.302 STR-68
94 Toledo 4-5 -1.340 STR-108
95 Buffalo 3-5 -1.500 STR-85
96 Louisiana Tech 3-5 -1.704 STR-94
97 UNLV 3-6 -1.731 STR-58
98 Colorado 2-6 -2.000 STR-26
99 Army 3-5 -2.115 STR-115
100 Arkansas St 2-5 -2.213 STR-51
101 Florida Atlantic 2-5 -2.247 STR-77
102 Tulane 2-6 -2.349 STR-39
103 New Mexico St 3-6 -2.349 STR-107
104 Illinois 2-6 -2.448 STR-47
105 Maryland 2-6 -2.452 STR-59
106 Utah St 2-6 -2.555 STR-61
107 Florida Intl 2-6 -2.631 STR-70
108 Memphis 2-6 -2.705 STR-91
109 Hawaii 2-6 -2.793 STR-89
110 North Texas 2-6 -2.960 STR-98
111 Vanderbilt 2-7 -2.975 STR-65
112 San Jose St 1-6 -3.028 STR-5
113 Washington St 1-7 -3.302 STR-14
114 Miami OH 1-8 -3.591 STR-29
115 Akron 1-7 -3.965 STR-71
116 Others-Normal -4.501 STR-48
117 Ball St 1-8 -4.667 STR-118
118 Rice 0-8 -5.234 STR-64
119 New Mexico 0-8 -5.382 STR-95
120 East Michigan 0-8 -5.396 STR-92
121 West Kentucky 0-8 -5.559 STR-105
Most overrated team: Oklahoma (5-3, AP#20, Hack#32) Same reasons as last week.
Most underrated team: Wisconsin (6-2, AP#24, Hack#16) Same reasons as last week.
BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions:
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida
Interesting games this week:
(9) LSU vs. (4) Alabama [Winner likely to face Florida in SEC championship]
(48) Kansas vs. (68) Kansas St [The Big-12 North is wide open right now, but K-St controls its own fate in trying to reach the Big-12 championship]
(20) Ohio St vs. (11) Penn St [If Penn St wins, Iowa can win the Big 10 even if they lose to Ohio St next week]
(62) Connecticut vs. (5) Cincinnati [Bearcats continue to hope that Iowa and Texas lose]
(6) Oregon vs. (53) Stanford [Ducks can’t afford to look past the suddenly respectable Cardinal]
(7) TCU vs. (82) San Diego St [Horned Frogs continue to make their case for a BCS bid]
(44) Fresno St vs. (33) Idaho [I only picked this game because of the novelty of two middle-of-the-road WAC teams being above .500 at this point in the season]
(49) Florida St vs. (29) Clemson [As bad as FSU has looked, they are not out of the running for a berth in the ACC championship]
(34) Oregon St vs. (25) California [Kevin Riley got one monkey off his back last week at ASU – can he do it again this week against the Beavers?]
posted by The Hack Poll at
4:50 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home