2011 Ratings, Week 8

It was nice to finally see some upsets this week, giving more definition to the college football landscape than merely arguing about which undefeated team is better than which.  For the second week in a row, my “most overrated” team lost to a team ranked below them – this time it was West Virginia losing to Syracuse, with the result that now Syracuse is my highest ranked Big East team.  The bizarre moment of the week, though, was undoubtedly in the UCLA-Arizona game on Thursday night, when an unauthorized person came on to the sideline disguised as a game official, blew a whistle to stop play, tried to steal the football, and then ran off as a streaker, managing to get down to his skivvies before being tackled by security personnel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ6oqdN1LG4

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: For the same reason that I refused to say Wake Forest over Florida St two weeks ago, I refuse now to give this award to Syracuse.  So instead I will give it to Texas Tech’s 41-38 win in Norman over pre-season national championship favorite Oklahoma.  Tech led 24-7 at halftime and withstood a furious 4^th quarter comeback attempt to preserve the win.  Oklahoma is by no means out of the Big-12 championship race as they still have remaining games against both Kansas State and Oklahoma St, but they did become the first Goliath to fall this season.

Yawner of the week: Speaking of Goliath’s, TCU wins this award for its 69-0 win over New Mexico.  With two losses already this year, the Horned Frogs are not quite the juggernaut that they had been the last couple of seasons, but they are still a formidable opponent, and the de facto Mountain West championship game between them and Boise St should still be quite fascinating.

Comeback of the week:  Oklahoma tried to win this award but came up just short, so instead it goes to Cincinnati, who scored 20 points in the 4^th quarter to score a road victory over South Florida, 37-34.  The Bearcats survive to remain unbeaten in conference play, but most Big East teams have not played more than two conference games yet, so that conference is still wide open.

Game of the week:  With the score tied at 31 with 4 seconds remaining, Michigan St tried a Hail-Mary from the 44-yard-line on their last play.  The ball was caught near the goal line, but the receiver was immediately dragged backward and tackled, and officials marked the ball short of the goal line.  Replay, however, showed that the receiver had broken the plane of the goal line with the ball prior to the tackle, resulting in a touchdown, and a win over previously unbeaten Wisconsin.  An exciting game between two of the Big-10’s best this year, and thankfully it didn’t go into overtime.

And now, with sufficient sample size to claim 100% reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

 

Rank	Team		W-L	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Oklahoma St		7-0	5.588	STR-11	Last-1	AP-3
2	Alabama		8-0	5.276	STR-19	Last-4	AP-2
3	LSU		8-0	5.259	STR-20	Last-5	AP-1
4	Boise St		7-0	5.086	STR-29	Last-3	AP-5
5	Clemson		8-0	4.682	STR-53	Last-6	AP-6
6	Kansas St		7-0	4.386	STR-71	Last-7	AP-10
7	Oklahoma		6-1	4.120	STR-12	Last-2	AP-11
8	Stanford		7-0	4.080	STR-83	Last-9	AP-4
9	Houston		7-0	3.902	STR-96	Last-13	AP-18
10	Virginia Tech		7-1	3.827	STR-34	Last-10	AP-15
11	Michigan		6-1	3.642	STR-33	Last-11	AP-17
12	USC		6-1	3.591	STR-36	Last-20	AP-20
13	South Carolina		6-1	3.580	STR-30	Last-14	AP-14
14	Penn St		7-1	3.564	STR-52	Last-12	AP-21
15	Oregon		6-1	3.465	STR-46	Last-15	AP-7
16	Texas A&M		5-2	3.351	STR-2	Last-19	AP-16
17	Arkansas		6-1	3.300	STR-57	Last-17	AP-8
18	Nebraska		6-1	3.196	STR-67	Last-8	AP-13
19	Michigan St		6-1	3.176	STR-68	Last-26	AP-9
20	Wisconsin		6-1	2.764	STR-93	Last-16	AP-12
21	Texas		4-2	2.706	STR-5	Last-18	AP-31
22	Syracuse		5-2	2.486	STR-26	Last-36	AP-32
23	Southern Miss		6-1	2.445	STR-100	Last-35	AP-27
24	Georgia		5-2	2.430	STR-24	Last-31	AP-22
25	Arizona St		5-2	2.368	STR-32	Last-30	AP-23
26	Auburn		5-3	2.350	STR-3	Last-24	AP-26
27	Texas Tech		5-2	2.317	STR-39		AP-19
28	Cincinnati		6-1	2.154	STR-108		AP-24
29	Washington		5-2	2.132	STR-50		AP-29
30	West Virginia		5-2	2.052	STR-49	Last-21	AP-25
31	SMU		5-2	1.982	STR-63
32	Wake Forest		5-2	1.967	STR-60
33	Baylor		4-2	1.942	STR-35		AP-28
34	Illinois		6-2	1.901	STR-78	Last-22	AP-36
35	Notre Dame		4-3	1.831	STR-4
36	Georgia Tech		6-2	1.772	STR-84	Last-25	AP-30
37	North Carolina		5-3	1.741	STR-16
38	Rutgers		5-2	1.622	STR-73	Last-23	AP-35
39	Arkansas St		5-2	1.596	STR-79
40	Toledo		5-3	1.512	STR-37
41	Miami FL		4-3	1.506	STR-9		AP-33
42	LA Lafayette		6-2	1.277	STR-107
43	Ohio St		4-3	1.268	STR-18
44	BYU		6-2	1.255	STR-110		AP-36
45	TCU		5-2	1.222	STR-103		AP-34
46	San Diego St		4-2	1.152	STR-85
47	Tulsa		4-3	1.080	STR-31
48	Florida		4-3	1.064	STR-23
49	Iowa		5-2	0.946	STR-111
50	Vanderbilt		4-3	0.904	STR-42
51	Florida St		4-3	0.904	STR-41
52	Nevada		4-3	0.803	STR-47
53	East Michigan		5-3	0.734	STR-88
54	Ball St		5-3	0.691	STR-95
55	California		4-3	0.665	STR-66
56	Temple		5-3	0.663	STR-91
57	South Florida		4-3	0.647	STR-64
58	NC St		4-3	0.375	STR-82
59	UTEP		4-3	0.365	STR-86
60	Tennessee		3-4	0.340	STR-6
61	Florida Intl		4-3	0.312	STR-80
62	Virginia		4-3	0.302	STR-89
63	Purdue		4-3	0.288	STR-81
64	Wyoming		4-2	0.198	STR-120
65	Missouri		3-4	0.160	STR-10
66	Ohio		5-3	0.000	STR-114
67	W Michigan		4-4	-0.020	STR-69
68	Northern Illinois		5-3	-0.053	STR-117
69	Utah		3-4	-0.062	STR-21
70	UCLA		3-4	-0.121	STR-17
71	Mississippi St		3-4	-0.166	STR-22
72	East Carolina		3-4	-0.230	STR-28
73	Marshall		3-5	-0.234	STR-8
74	San Jose St		3-4	-0.261	STR-38
75	Iowa St		3-4	-0.345	STR-45
76	Bowling Green		4-4	-0.390	STR-98
77	Louisville		3-4	-0.457	STR-54
78	Hawaii		4-3	-0.511	STR-119
79	Kentucky		3-4	-0.564	STR-56
80	Air Force		3-4	-0.746	STR-72
81	Pittsburgh		3-4	-0.777	STR-76
82	Kansas		2-5	-0.789	STR-1
83	North Texas		3-5	-0.952	STR-44
84	Louisiana Tech		3-4	-0.959	STR-94
85	Connecticut		3-4	-0.960	STR-99
86	Duke		3-4	-0.968	STR-90
87	Arizona		2-5	-1.203	STR-7
88	Maryland		2-5	-1.268	STR-13
89	UCF		3-4	-1.321	STR-106
90	Fresno St		3-5	-1.321	STR-77
91	Washington St		3-4	-1.332	STR-109
92	Troy		2-4	-1.339	STR-43
93	Mississippi		2-5	-1.341	STR-14
94	West Kentucky		3-4	-1.499	STR-115
95	Colorado St		3-4	-1.518	STR-113
96	Rice		2-5	-1.544	STR-40
97	New Mexico St		3-4	-1.613	STR-121
98	Navy		2-5	-1.821	STR-61
99	Northwestern		2-5	-1.895	STR-58
100	Oregon St		2-5	-1.964	STR-70
101	LA Monroe		2-5	-1.997	STR-74
102	Cent Michigan		2-6	-2.113	STR-65
103	Utah St		2-5	-2.119	STR-97
104	Middle Tenn St		2-4	-2.221	STR-116
105	Army		2-5	-2.228	STR-102
106	Miami OH		2-5	-2.323	STR-101
107	Buffalo		2-6	-2.377	STR-92
108	Memphis		2-6	-2.758	STR-112
109	Tulane		2-6	-2.895	STR-118
110	Colorado		1-7	-2.898	STR-15
111	Kent St		1-6	-2.955	STR-27
112	UNLV		1-5	-3.033	STR-87
113	Indiana		1-7	-3.086	STR-25
114	Akron		1-6	-3.097	STR-59
115	Minnesota		1-6	-3.136	STR-55
116	Boston Coll		1-6	-3.172	STR-48
117	UAB		1-6	-3.466	STR-105
118	Idaho		1-6	-3.529	STR-104
119	FCS		6-85	-3.860	STR-62
120	Florida Atlantic		0-7	-4.456	STR-51
121	New Mexico		0-7	-4.574	STR-75

 

Most overrated: Wisconsin (6-1, AP#12, Hack#20)  The BCS computers agree with mine, ranking the Badgers on average at #24.  The reason, of course, is that though they have blown out most of their opponents (including Nebraska), their overall strength of schedule has been horrible (ranked #93).  Their one remaining marquee game is against Penn St the last week of the season, so even if they keep winning, don’t expect them to rise too fast in the rankings unless teams ahead of them start losing.

Most underrated: Texas (4-2, AP#31, Hack #21)  I’m sure that the Longhorns’ humiliating defeat at the Red River Shootout is still fresh in voters’ minds, but their only two losses were to top-10 teams and they have wins over a respectable schedule (ranked #5).  They had a bye week last week, and follow it up this week with their only remaining easy game, against Kansas.

Mark your calendars for: (particularly interesting games in conference and national championship races):

11/5:  LSU vs. Alabama  [Being billed as a de facto National Semifinal]

11/5:  Kansas St vs. Oklahoma St [Currently the two remaining undefeated teams in the Big-12]

11/12:  TCU vs. Boise St  [These two teams meet in Mountain West conference play for the first time]

11/12:  Oregon vs. Stanford  [The winner of this game will be the favorite to win the first Pac-12 championship game as well]

11/26:  Penn St vs. Wisconsin [PSU is now in the driver’s seat to reach the Big-10 championship, but that could get derailed when they have to visit Madison]

Interesting games this week:

(19) Michigan St vs (18) Nebraska  [Winner is in the driver’s seat to win its division of the Big-10, though Michigan and Iowa are still in the picture as well]

(7) Oklahoma vs. (6) Kansas St  [Who thought that K-St would have a better record than the Sooners at this point in the season?]

(8) Stanford vs (12) USC  [Do I have to pick someone to root for in this game?]

(55) California vs. (70) UCLA  [Bruins will be shorthanded by four players as a result of suspensions from the brawl in the Arizona game]