Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

At the beginning of the year, LSU and USC were considered the consensus favorites to reach the national championship game in Louisiana in January. Not that either team had a greater than 50% chance of reaching the title game, but merely that they had a greater chance than any other teams in the nation, and an undefeated season by either team would pretty much guarantee it admission to the title game. The fates of both early favorites were very much in jeopardy this past week, as evidenced in my weekly awards:

Upset of the Week: Undoubtedly the biggest upset this fall was Stanford, a 41-point underdog, going into the Coliseum and escaping with a 24-23 win. A gutsy performance by the Cardinal, who took advantage of 3 USC turnovers and converted a couple of key late fourth downs to shock the Coliseum crowd, who had expected to breeze through this game and were already looking ahead to tougher games on the Trojans’ schedule, such as visits to Oregon, Arizona St, and Cal. No longer the favorite to reach the title game, USC dropped to #10 in most national rankings and #28 in the Hack Poll.

Comeback of the Week: At the moment the final second ticked off the clock at the Coliseum, Florida was leading at LSU by a score of 24-14, and pollsters were beginning to consider the possibility of having to rank Cal as #1 in the country. But LSU scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, demonstrating great ball control in the process, to scrape by with a 28-24 victory. Les Miles showed great confidence in his offensive line as, during their last touchdown drive in the closing minutes, he opted to go for it on two fourth-and-short downs, including eschewing a chip-shot tying field goal to go for a fourth-and-inches from the six yard line. LSU is rightfully a consensus #1 team right now, but they still have to look forward to 6 more conference opponents including Kentucky, Auburn, and perhaps a rematch against Florida in the SEC championship game.

Yawner of the Week: There were not too many big blowouts this week, so I’m going to give the nod to Auburn’s 35-7 win over Vanderbilt. The Tigers led 28-0 at halftime and won in a dominating effort to get them back into the national rankings. No rest for the Tigers, though; they have tough road games at Arkansas and LSU the next two weeks.

Game of the Week: Even though the Stanford upset of USC was astounding and dramatic, the Florida-LSU game gets the nod for this award in my book. LSU truly played like a championship team the way they took control of this titanic battle at the end. I would like to give an honorable mention to Cincinnati’s 28-23 comeback win over Rutgers. Last week I had predicted that Cincinnati’s up-tempo offense would give the young Scarlet Knight defense trouble, but Rutgers did dominate defensively early to take a 17-7 halftime lead. The Bearcats made good adjustments at halftime, though, and kept their undefeated season and Big East title hopes alive with their third-quarter comeback. Mark your calendars for November 3, when Cincinnati travels to South Florida in what could be a very entertaining de facto Big East championship game.

BCS implications: The first BCS poll results don’t get published for another week, but I’ve run a mock BCS calculation to see what teams are front-runners now that USC is (for the moment) out of the way. LSU is far ahead of the pack, but Ohio St and Cal are neck and neck for the #2 and #3 spots. If both teams can stay undefeated for a few more weeks as the season continues to unfold, you could see some very interesting lobbying for votes in the critical coaches poll and Harris poll. At the moment, Cal has the edge among human voters, but the computers like Ohio St a bit more. The #4 and #5 spots are currently occupied by South Florida and Missouri, both significantly behind #3.

And now, with 41.4% reliability, this week’s Hack Poll rankings:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

LSU

6

0

4.846

6

1

1

2

South Florida

5

0

4.114

31

3

5

3

Missouri

5

0

4.010

35

8

11

4

Arizona St

6

0

3.978

33

7

14

5

Ohio St

6

0

3.654

58

10

3

6

California

5

0

3.457

70

4

2

7

Boston Coll

6

0

3.407

74

9

4

8

South Carolina

5

1

3.307

12

13

7

9

Illinois

5

1

3.306

15

16

18

10

Oregon

4

1

3.237

4

11

9

11

Cincinnati

6

0

3.007

98

21

15

12

Virginia Tech

5

1

2.699

36

27

12

13

Kansas

5

0

2.607

114

33

20

14

Connecticut

5

0

2.541

115

20

34

15

Kentucky

5

1

2.528

53

5

17

16

West Virginia

5

1

2.359

61

22

8

17

Florida St

4

1

2.345

42

14

21

18

Florida

4

2

2.330

2

15

13

19

Wisconsin

5

1

2.256

65

6

19

20

Oklahoma

5

1

2.243

66

30

6

21

Texas A&M

5

1

2.111

77

35

26

22

Wyoming

4

1

2.098

64

34

46

23

Auburn

4

2

2.068

19

32

22

24

Indiana

5

1

2.064

80

25

29

25

Colorado

4

2

2.060

11

38

27

26

Virginia

5

1

2.053

83

23

33

27

Purdue

5

1

1.921

94

28

28

USC

4

1

1.842

75

2

10

29

Nebraska

4

2

1.692

26

12

40

30

Mississippi St

4

2

1.629

24

44

31

Tennessee

3

2

1.593

7

25

32

Georgia

4

2

1.575

29

19

24

33

Hawaii

6

0

1.516

121

16

34

Boise St

3

1

1.477

79

36

35

Wake Forest

3

2

1.450

13

39

36

Alabama

4

2

1.418

43

40

37

Texas

4

2

1.354

44

18

23

38

Texas Tech

5

1

1.285

117

31

39

Kansas St

3

2

1.265

21

35

40

BYU

3

2

1.137

27

42

41

UTEP

4

2

1.108

63

42

Michigan St

4

2

1.073

62

17

44

43

Maryland

4

2

1.049

69

44

Clemson

4

2

1.035

68

37

45

UCLA

4

2

1.004

60

24

46

46

Akron

3

3

0.959

5

47

Tulsa

3

2

0.949

34

48

Rutgers

3

2

0.912

46

32

49

Bowling Green

3

2

0.857

47

50

Air Force

4

2

0.849

86

51

Michigan

4

2

0.730

91

30

52

Fresno St

3

2

0.665

59

53

Penn St

4

2

0.665

102

37

54

Miami FL

4

2

0.644

101

55

Stanford

2

3

0.617

1

43

56

Arkansas

3

2

0.547

71

57

New Mexico

3

2

0.546

73

58

Troy

4

2

0.533

108

59

Oregon St

3

3

0.513

16

60

Oklahoma St

3

3

0.500

22

61

New Mexico St

3

2

0.450

85

62

Georgia Tech

3

3

0.440

25

63

Vanderbilt

3

2

0.383

89

64

East Carolina

3

3

0.355

28

65

Navy

3

2

0.325

92

66

Washington

2

3

0.124

8

46

67

Miami OH

3

3

0.027

55

68

Northwestern

3

3

0.002

56

69

UCF

3

2

-0.013

112

70

West Kentucky

3

2

-0.083

113

71

TCU

3

3

-0.135

67

72

Ball St

3

3

-0.153

76

73

Florida Atlantic

3

3

-0.188

72

74

Army

3

3

-0.268

81

75

Baylor

3

3

-0.291

84

76

Utah

3

3

-0.307

90

77

Cent Michigan

3

3

-0.353

95

78

Kent St

3

3

-0.455

99

79

North Carolina

2

4

-0.490

10

80

Pittsburgh

2

3

-0.498

45

81

San Jose St

3

3

-0.509

107

82

W Michigan

2

4

-0.776

17

83

San Diego St

2

3

-0.789

57

84

Mississippi

2

4

-0.825

20

85

Louisville

3

3

-0.896

118

86

Washington St

2

4

-0.915

30

87

Houston

2

3

-0.935

78

88

Nevada

2

3

-0.970

87

89

UNLV

2

4

-1.054

48

90

Southern Miss

2

3

-1.069

100

91

Arizona

2

4

-1.106

54

92

Arkansas St

2

3

-1.159

105

93

Toledo

2

4

-1.408

88

94

Buffalo

2

4

-1.480

97

95

Ohio

2

4

-1.539

104

96

Iowa

2

4

-1.559

106

97

Minnesota

1

5

-1.698

3

98

Memphis

2

3

-1.752

119

99

East Michigan

2

4

-1.756

116

100

Duke

1

5

-1.764

9

101

LA Monroe

1

4

-1.769

18

102

Notre Dame

1

5

-1.819

14

103

Louisiana Tech

1

4

-1.968

41

104

UAB

1

4

-1.976

40

105

Tulane

1

4

-2.113

49

106

NC St

1

5

-2.197

32

107

Syracuse

1

5

-2.204

38

108

Rice

1

4

-2.286

82

109

Middle Tenn St

1

5

-2.335

52

110

SMU

1

4

-2.413

93

111

Temple

1

5

-2.546

96

112

Iowa St

1

5

-2.655

103

113

Idaho

1

5

-2.723

109

114

Others-Normal

0.579902

5.053431

-2.771

51

115

LA Lafayette

1

5

-2.821

111

116

Northern Illinois

1

5

-3.223

120

117

Utah St

0

6

-3.418

23

118

Florida Intl

0

6

-3.489

37

119

Colorado St

0

5

-3.531

39

120

Marshall

0

5

-3.620

50

121

North Texas

0

5

-3.886

110

Most overrated team: Hawaii (6-0, AP#16, Hack#33). Normally I like to give props to mid-majors, but Hawaii has breezed to its 6-0 start by playing the easiest schedule in the nation. Their four DI-A opponents to date have a combined record of 4-19, and they have played two DI-AA opponents as well. They don’t play a single ranked team all year, and their toughest remaining games are against #52 Fresno St, #34 Boise St, and #66 Washington, all at home. The biggest issue is whether Hawaii will be able to climb high enough in the polls to get in to the BCS, but with a schedule like they have, it’s doubtful (in my mock BCS rankings they came in at #20).

Most underrated team: Wyoming (4-1, AP#46, Hack#22). The Cowboys keep quietly putting together a very quality season. Their matchup on November 17 when they host BYU could be for the Mountain West Conference title.

You may wonder, by the way, why Cal dropped 2 spots in my poll despite the fact that they had the week off, a team above them dropped below them, and the human pollsters all moved Cal up. The reason is that my rankings are based heavily on strength-of-schedule. So when Cal doesn’t play, the only way to adjust their rankings is as a result of what their opponents do. Last Saturday, Cal’s to-date opponents only went 1-3, whereas the to-date opponents of Oregon (also idle, but who moved up 1 spot) were 3-1. In particular, Oregon is benefiting from the resurgence of Michigan (winners of 4 straight) and from Stanford’s upset of USC (the Ducks have already beaten Stanford but have not yet played USC).

Interesting games next week:

(17) Florida St vs. (35) Wake Forest [FSU needs win to stay in ACC title hunt]

(19) Wisconsin vs. (53) Penn St [Good matchup of 2nd-tier Big-10 teams]

(1) LSU vs. (15) Kentucky [Wildcats try to avoid two straight losses to ranked opponents]

(3) Missouri vs. (20) Oklahoma [After beating Nebraska, this is Mizzou’s biggest remaining obstacle in quest for Big-12 title]

(59) Oregon St vs. (6) California [Bears cannot afford to look past the team that upset USC last year]