Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The weekly carnage in the top-25 continues, and that is making bowl predictions that much more tenuous than they usually are. But as Cal’s Rose Bowl hopes died in the arms of UCLA defensive back Alterraun Verner, who intercepted a Nate Longshore pass and returned it for a touchdown with 1:33 remaining in the game last Saturday, bowl predictions are about the only thing this forlorn fan has to do right now.

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week: The Vanderbilt Commodores were on the cusp of being a Cinderella team last year, starting 5-0 before bowing to more powerful foes in the SEC. This year, they revert to their more familiar role of spoiler. But they do perform that role well, in this case by going on the road to beat South Carolina 17-6. They scored all 17 points in the first quarter and then simply let their defense take over the game. The loss probably takes the Gamecocks out of the running for a BCS at-large bid, but they do technically still control their own fate – if they win the rest of their regular season games they will be in the SEC championship.

Comeback of the week: This one had most pundits scratching their heads. The Auburn Tigers played brilliantly in Baton Rouge, leading the LSU Tigers by 10 points at halftime. LSU clawed back in the second half but still found itself trailing by 1 point in the waning seconds with the ball deep in Auburn territory. For some reason, LSU coach Les Miles did not just set up for a game winning field goal – he had his team try a fade pass for a touchdown. It worked, and the Tigers won the game (and in so doing, regained the top spot in my rankings), but there were so many more things that could have gone wrong with that play call than with the field goal. Those who live by the aggressive play call eventually die by the same.

Yawner of the week: For the second time this season, the award will go to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, this time for their 56-7 win over Indiana St. The Hilltoppers scored 21 points in each of the first two quarters, and the ISU Sycamores (that’s for Lucy – she has been scanning my blog incessantly for weird mascots) scored their only touchdown in garbage time. Apparently their decision to promote themselves to DI-A was a good one, as they seem to have no problem with DI-AA competition.

Game of the week: One year ago, students in Piscataway, New Jersey, stormed the field after their Rutgers Scarlet Knights upset the then #3 Louisville Cardinals. The fields were again stormed last Thursday as Rutgers pulled off the upset against the #2 South Florida Bulls. It was a fantastic seesaw battle that saw Rutgers successfully pull off a fake punt (leading to a field goal) and a fake field goal (on which they scored a touchdown) to win by a slim 30-27 margin. And suddenly, even though I have South Florida at #6 and West Virginia at #13, both teams will need a team they have already played to lose a game in order to claim the Big East title – Rutgers at #28 controls its own fate.

BCS Watch:

In the SEC West, LSU’s win over Auburn dropped Auburn from the conference title discussion for the time being – all eyes now are on the LSU-Alabama game in two weeks. In the East, the division is more convoluted then ever – 5 teams have identical

3-2 conference records. Of those, however, only Florida and South Carolina control their own destinies; Tennessee dropped out of the discussion with their humiliating loss to Alabama.

In the Big-10, Michigan’s win over Illinois sets up a rematch of last year’s Ohio St – Michigan game for the conference title (with two conference losses, Illinois drops out of the discussion). It won’t be the monumental matchup that it was last year – neither team is as good as they were in 2006 – but a trip to a BCS bowl still should be riding on that game.

In the Pac-10, UCLA’s win over Cal drops Cal out of the conference title discussion and re-enters Oregon. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona St, and USC all control their own destinies, and they all still have to play each other, starting this week with USC visiting Oregon. Interestingly, 6-1 USC checks in only at #29 in my rankings because they currently boast the 6th easiest schedule in the country! Their non-conference wins have been against lowly Idaho, flailing Nebraska, and pathetic Notre Dame, and their conference foes to date have been Washington St, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona, probably the bottom four teams in the conference. Their strength-of-schedule will improve dramatically in the coming weeks, but with myriad injuries to their quarterback and offensive line, plus the lack of real play-makers at wide receiver, they have to be considered a long shot to run the table and get to the Rose Bowl.

In the ACC, the situation is the same as it was a week ago; the Boston College – Virginia Tech game I touted a week ago is actually this weekend.

In the Big-12, there were two big shakeups. Kansas went on the road and beat Colorado to remain undefeated; the Jayhawks and Missouri are the frontrunners in the Big-12 North. Missouri’s blowout win over Texas Tech removed an important obstacle in Texas A&M’s quest for a Big-12 title – now the Aggies join Oklahoma in being in control of their own fate in the Big-12 South.

In the Big East, Connecticut is the only team undefeated in conference after their impressive (though somewhat controversial) win over Louisville. (The controversy was in the fact that UConn scored its first touchdown when a receiver catching a Louisville punt appeared to call for a fair catch but then ran with the ball. By the letter of the rule, the refs appeared to get the play right by not awarding the fair catch – the rules require the receiver to put his hand up and wave, and this receiver did not appear to wave. By the spirit of good football, however, it was at least an unsportsmanlike manipulation of the rules). Rutgers is also back in the Big East championship discussion thanks to Pittsburgh’s win over Cincinnati, and Rutgers is playing well enough right now to beat West Virginia at home next week.

Others: The Cinderella still in the spotlight is Hawaii, but Boise St has actually passed the Warriors in my rankings. Regardless, only the winner of the Boise St – Hawaii game will have any serious consideration, and the only question is will both teams rise high enough in the polls prior to that game to give the winner a sufficient boost into the BCS.

BCS Bowl Pie-in-the-sky predictions:

Championship: LSU vs. Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Boston Coll vs. South Florida

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Rutgers

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl: Arizona St vs. Missouri

There is enough of a sample size of games to declare that my rankings are as reliable as they are going to get. They are by no means predictive, but they do offer (in my opinion) a reasonable picture of what these teams have accomplished to date. Here they are:

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

LSU

7

1

4.920

5

2

3

2

Ohio St

8

0

4.459

73

4

1

3

Arizona St

7

0

4.449

70

3

7

4

Boston Coll

7

0

4.390

81

6

2

5

Oregon

6

1

4.119

14

8

5

6

South Florida

6

1

4.000

20

1

11

7

Virginia

7

1

3.864

35

13

21

8

Kansas

7

0

3.809

109

9

12

9

Missouri

6

1

3.710

36

11

13

10

Florida

5

2

3.352

4

17

9

11

Oklahoma

7

1

3.285

71

10

4

12

Virginia Tech

6

1

3.229

60

12

8

13

West Virginia

6

1

3.203

66

15

6

14

Kentucky

6

2

3.109

15

5

14

15

Connecticut

6

1

2.989

79

25

29

16

South Carolina

6

2

2.621

40

7

15

17

Wake Forest

5

2

2.599

19

22

28

18

Boise St

6

1

2.498

102

27

27

19

Georgia

5

2

2.479

27

20

20

20

Michigan

6

2

2.476

39

38

19

21

Alabama

6

2

2.458

47

36

22

22

Texas A&M

6

2

2.452

46

34

40

23

UCLA

5

2

2.265

32

44

26

24

Hawaii

7

0

2.203

121

23

16

25

Penn St

6

2

2.188

62

37

24

26

Auburn

5

3

2.185

13

19

23

27

California

5

2

2.181

44

14

18

28

Rutgers

5

2

2.129

49

25

29

USC

6

1

2.053

116

9

30

Texas

6

2

1.967

83

17

31

Air Force

6

2

1.942

85

32

32

Oklahoma St

5

3

1.941

12

36

33

Purdue

6

2

1.924

86

40

34

BYU

5

2

1.895

63

33

35

Clemson

5

2

1.867

64

30

36

Texas Tech

6

2

1.827

97

24

33

37

Georgia Tech

5

3

1.701

26

38

Michigan St

5

3

1.651

25

39

Tennessee

4

3

1.649

7

16

36

40

Illinois

5

3

1.628

30

41

Wisconsin

6

2

1.611

105

31

42

Cincinnati

6

2

1.598

101

18

40

43

New Mexico

5

2

1.492

96

44

Fresno St

5

2

1.460

98

36

45

Oregon St

4

3

1.366

17

46

Kansas St

4

3

1.342

16

21

39

47

Maryland

4

3

1.317

18

48

Wyoming

4

3

1.256

22

49

Florida St

4

3

1.201

21

50

Navy

4

3

1.089

31

51

Troy

5

2

1.015

115

35

52

Colorado

4

4

0.945

8

53

Nebraska

4

4

0.878

10

54

Miami FL

5

3

0.855

72

55

Utah

5

3

0.823

78

56

Vanderbilt

4

3

0.790

50

57

Indiana

5

3

0.760

87

58

Ball St

5

3

0.747

88

59

Northwestern

5

3

0.737

84

60

Arkansas

4

3

0.655

55

61

Bowling Green

4

3

0.636

56

62

UCF

4

3

0.614

57

63

Tulsa

4

3

0.517

67

64

Mississippi St

4

4

0.471

24

65

East Carolina

4

4

0.406

28

66

UTEP

4

3

0.406

80

67

Florida Atlantic

4

3

0.272

91

68

Stanford

3

4

0.253

9

69

Houston

4

3

0.139

100

70

Louisville

4

4

0.009

54

71

West Kentucky

4

3

-0.126

113

72

TCU

4

4

-0.132

69

73

Pittsburgh

3

4

-0.161

23

74

Cent Michigan

4

4

-0.187

74

75

Washington

2

5

-0.343

1

76

Akron

3

4

-0.378

37

77

Miami OH

4

4

-0.405

93

78

New Mexico St

4

4

-0.536

103

79

Southern Miss

3

3

-0.802

114

80

Nevada

3

4

-1.091

99

81

Middle Tenn St

3

5

-1.092

48

82

Baylor

3

5

-1.126

53

83

North Carolina

2

5

-1.129

6

84

Army

3

5

-1.196

58

85

Iowa

3

5

-1.296

76

86

W Michigan

3

5

-1.319

77

87

San Jose St

3

5

-1.346

82

88

Kent St

3

5

-1.349

75

89

Buffalo

3

5

-1.421

90

90

Temple

3

5

-1.423

95

91

Arkansas St

3

4

-1.542

117

92

Toledo

3

5

-1.635

106

93

NC St

2

5

-1.654

34

94

Louisiana Tech

2

5

-1.709

41

95

Washington St

2

5

-1.754

38

96

Mississippi

2

6

-1.770

11

97

Ohio

3

5

-1.989

118

98

Memphis

3

4

-2.054

120

99

San Diego St

2

5

-2.062

59

100

Arizona

2

6

-2.125

42

101

Syracuse

2

6

-2.146

45

102

UAB

2

5

-2.229

89

103

UNLV

2

6

-2.239

51

104

Duke

1

6

-2.286

3

105

LA Monroe

2

5

-2.296

92

106

Notre Dame

1

7

-2.331

2

107

Tulane

2

5

-2.532

110

108

East Michigan

2

6

-2.718

104

109

Minnesota

1

7

-3.241

33

110

Colorado St

1

6

-3.362

65

111

Rice

1

6

-3.502

94

112

Iowa St

1

7

-3.553

61

113

Others-Normal

0.840376

6.617958

-3.562

52

114

North Texas

1

6

-3.683

107

115

SMU

1

6

-3.727

112

116

Idaho

1

7

-3.811

108

117

LA Lafayette

1

7

-3.871

111

118

Northern Illinois

1

7

-4.167

119

119

Florida Intl

0

7

-4.547

29

120

Utah St

0

7

-4.646

43

121

Marshall

0

6

-4.782

68

Most overrated team: Hawaii (7-0, AP#16, Hack#24) As they continue to roll through the WAC, sometimes just barely beating teams that aren’t very good, the Warriors will probably continue to garner this dubious honor. Expect a change only after they lose or after they play Boise St

Most underrated team: Virginia (7-1, AP#21, Hack#7) Matt Hayes was laughing in his column in Sporting News about computers that rank USC #24 and Virginia #6. I do think a #7 ranking by my computer is a little high, but I also think that they have not received the credit they have deserved all year, a condition that seems to self-perpetuate among human voters. Their toughest game is yet to come, against Virginia Tech, but until then I believe they deserve to be ranked close to V-Tech since they boast a similar resume.

Interesting games next week:

(2) Ohio St vs. (25) Penn St [OSU’s toughest remaining test until Michigan]

(4) Boston Coll vs. (12) Virginia Tech [Possible preview of ACC championship game]

(6) South Florida vs. (15) Connecticut [Can UConn defense stop Matt Groethe?]

(13) West Virginia vs. (28) Rutgers [WVU beat Rutgers last year, relegating them to the Texas Bowl. Revenge game?]

(8) Kansas vs. (22) Texas A&M [Despite Coach Francione’s scandal, A&M is back in the title hunt]

(10) Florida vs. (19) Georgia [If UGa wins, SEC East gets even more chaotic]

(29) USC vs. (5) Oregon [First time in six years that USC has been an underdog]

(27) California vs. (3) Arizona St [Should be a shootout]