Welcome to the inaugural edition of the 2009 Hack Poll (hardly a poll, as I only poll one computer…) ratings of college football. And I am happy to say that my audience is growing; in addition to supporters of Cal, Oregon, Maryland, Eastern Michigan, and (sic) USC following my musings, I now welcome June, former grad student at Michigan (congratulations on your comeback win over Notre Dame last weekend) and someone who also now realizes that she has a vested interest in the performance of South Florida.
My excitement over the arrival of college football season is always tempered by the fact that the first couple of weeks are filled with less-than-inspiring games. In particular, week 1 featured a total of 38 games in which FBS (formerly Division I-A) schools played FCS (formerly Division I-AA), the results of a vast majority of which were lopsided blowouts. It’s almost as bad as The Biggest Ripoff In Modern Sports: preseason NFL games. Almost.
But there were some games worthy of note, and so to the weekly awards we go:
Upset of the Week: Houston 45-35 over Oklahoma St. OSU has done well in recent years, but still consistently rides in the shadow of their arch-rival Oklahoma. With Oklahoma’s national title hopes dashed by their loss to BYU and the loss of their Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford in week 1, the road was paved for OSU to step forward and represent the Panhandle State on the national scene. But before they can do that, they have to get a defense.
Comeback of the Week: North Carolina 12-10 over Connecticut. The Huskies kept UNC in check for 3 quarters, but when the game was on the line the Tar Heels broke through for 10 points to tie the score. Fittingly, in a tough defensive struggle, the final difference in the game was a safety by the Tar Heels defense. UNC, traditionally more of a basketball school than a football school, suddenly finds themselves ranked #24 in the AP.
Yawner of the Week: As I alluded before, nominations for this dubious award are replete this early in the season. I’m going with Louisiana-Monroe’s 58-0 victory over Texas Southern. If you want more of an explanation, you are free to look it up yourself. I recommend not wasting your time.
Game of the Week: Pundits have been falling over themselves telling fans that both Notre Dame and Michigan are “back”. And, it so happens, they are. A very entertaining game in Ann Arbor this past weekend resulted in Michigan freshman quarterback Tate Forcier leading a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minute to give the Wolverines a 38-34 victory. Both these teams will be fun to watch for the rest of the year, something they have not been in recent years.
And now, my computer rankings after week 2. My usual caveat: 2 games is simply not enough of a sample size to adequately determine the relative strengths of 120 teams, hence these rankings are presented with a reliability factor of only 3.1%. That reliability factor will grow exponentially until about week 8, when it will hit its maximum value. The interesting things to glean from these early rankings are the fact that teams like Baylor, UCLA, and Wisconsin are in the top-10 because they have actually beaten some decent opponents. By contrast, Florida is #1 in the AP poll but #57 in the Hack-poll; they may very well be the best team in the country, but can we really know that after victories over the likes of Charleston Southern and Troy? I didn’t think so…
(AP poll numbers are shown for comparison)
Rank Team Wins Losses Value STR Last Week AP
1 Baylor 1 0 2.304 1 36
2 Alabama 2 0 2.106 2 4
3 LSU 2 0 2.085 9 9
4 UCLA 2 0 2.062 21 30
5 Miami FL 1 0 1.845 15 20
6 Texas 2 0 1.845 16 2
7 Wisconsin 2 0 1.845 17
8 Missouri 2 0 1.804 22 26
9 San Diego St 1 1 1.774 29
10 Nebraska 2 0 1.689 18 19
11 USC 2 0 1.413 37 3
12 Boise St 2 0 1.341 49 10
13 Houston 2 0 1.317 55 21
14 North Carolina 2 0 1.316 56 24
15 Arizona 2 0 1.312 57 39
16 Georgia Tech 2 0 1.312 58 14
17 Michigan 2 0 1.307 50 25
18 Minnesota 2 0 1.211 60 42
19 Penn St 2 0 1.211 61 5
20 BYU 2 0 1.209 62 7
21 Boston Coll 2 0 1.079 73 35
22 California 2 0 1.079 74 8
23 Cincinnati 2 0 1.079 75 17
24 Iowa 2 0 1.079 76 34
25 LA Lafayette 2 0 1.079 77
26 Oregon St 2 0 1.079 78 28
27 Southern Miss 2 0 1.079 79
28 West Virginia 2 0 1.079 80 32
29 Pittsburgh 2 0 1.035 81 27
30 SMU 2 0 1.035 82
31 Auburn 2 0 0.958 83 33
32 Washington 1 1 0.806 3
33 Oklahoma St 1 1 0.665 10 16
34 Connecticut 1 1 0.656 11
35 Oregon 1 1 0.632 13 38
36 Kentucky 1 0 0.593 91
37 Utah 2 0 0.591 92 18
38 Tulsa 2 0 0.591 93
39 Texas A&M 1 0 0.589 94
40 Arizona St 1 0 0.515 99
41 Arkansas 1 0 0.515 100 40
42 Louisville 1 0 0.515 101
43 Cent Michigan 1 1 0.501 19
44 Virginia Tech 1 1 0.486 20 13
45 Wake Forest 1 1 0.476 24
46 Clemson 1 1 0.472 23 37
47 Indiana 2 0 0.465 102
48 Ohio St 1 1 0.451 25 11
49 Vanderbilt 1 1 0.272 30
50 Fresno St 1 1 0.268 31
51 LA Monroe 1 1 0.268 32
52 Northern Illinois 1 1 0.268 33
53 Wyoming 1 1 0.268 34
54 Illinois 1 1 0.268 35
55 Notre Dame 1 1 0.241 26 31
56 South Florida 2 0 0.214 107 42
57 Florida 2 0 0.214 108 1
58 Kansas 2 0 0.214 109 22
59 Texas Tech 2 0 0.214 110 29
60 Hawaii 2 0 0.212 111
61 Colorado St 2 0 0.211 112 41
62 Northwestern 2 0 0.211 113
63 Arkansas St 1 1 0.187 36
64 Tennessee 1 1 0.185 38
65 Georgia 1 1 0.164 39 23
66 Bowling Green 1 1 0.152 40
67 Mississippi 1 0 0.131 115 6
68 East Carolina 1 1 0.129 41
69 Iowa St 1 1 0.129 42
70 Kansas St 1 1 0.129 43
71 Kent St 1 1 0.129 44
72 Maryland 1 1 0.129 45
73 Rutgers 1 1 0.129 46
74 UCF 1 1 0.129 47
75 UNLV 1 1 0.129 48
76 Air Force 1 1 0.100 51
77 Akron 1 1 0.100 52
78 Oklahoma 1 1 0.100 53 12
79 Mississippi St 1 1 0.097 54
80 Idaho 1 1 0.036 63
81 Buffalo 1 1 0.027 64
82 UAB 1 1 0.027 65
83 Purdue 1 1 0.000 70
84 Ohio 1 1 -0.007 71
85 Florida St 1 1 -0.081 88 42
86 South Carolina 1 1 -0.130 84
87 TCU 1 0 -0.248 118 15
88 Michigan St 1 1 -0.310 89
89 Marshall 1 1 -0.310 90
90 Stanford 1 1 -0.394 95
91 Navy 1 1 -0.395 96
92 Middle Tenn St 1 1 -0.397 97
93 New Mexico St 1 1 -0.465 103
94 NC St 1 1 -0.470 104
95 Toledo 1 1 -0.537 105
96 Duke 1 1 -0.648 106
97 Army 1 1 -0.659 114
98 North Texas 1 1 -0.771 117
99 Florida Intl 0 1 -0.787 4
100 Florida Atlantic0 1 -0.794 5
101 Syracuse 0 2 -0.794 6
102 Miami OH 0 2 -0.811 7
103 San Jose St 0 2 -0.844 8
104 W Michigan 0 2 -0.855 12
105 Tulane 0 2 -0.863 14
106 Utah St 0 1 -0.929 27
107 New Mexico 0 2 -0.929 28
108 Others-Normal 0.139506 1.743827 -0.965 59
109 West Kentucky 0 2 -1.143 66
110 Troy 0 2 -1.148 67
111 Rice 0 2 -1.151 68
112 UTEP 0 2 -1.151 69
113 Louisiana Tech 0 2 -1.168 72
114 Washington St 0 2 -1.209 85
115 Colorado 0 2 -1.214 86
116 East Michigan 0 2 -1.220 87
117 Memphis 0 2 -1.315 116
118 Nevada 0 1 -1.336 98
119 Virginia 0 2 -1.481 120
120 Ball St 0 2 -1.517 119
121 Temple 0 1 -1.574 121
Interesting games next week:
(25) LA-Lafayette vs. (3) LSU [Surprising 2-0 Rajun’ Cajuns come back to earth against the cross-state big bullies]
(16) Georgia Tech vs. (5) Miami FL [Early season ACC matchup highlights Miami’s return to respectability]
(15) Arizona vs. (24) Iowa [Defensive-minded Wildcats have a shot to enter Pac-10 play undefeated]
(22) Cal vs. (18) Minnesota [When Cal’s #10 AP rank was published last week, Matthew quickly let loose with a chant of O-VER-RAT-ED, and went on to list 15 or so teams that were ranked below Cal but would (in his view) beat them. This is Cal’s first chance this year to face a good team on the road and see if they can live up to their top-10 hype.]
My excitement over the arrival of college football season is always tempered by the fact that the first couple of weeks are filled with less-than-inspiring games. In particular, week 1 featured a total of 38 games in which FBS (formerly Division I-A) schools played FCS (formerly Division I-AA), the results of a vast majority of which were lopsided blowouts. It’s almost as bad as The Biggest Ripoff In Modern Sports: preseason NFL games. Almost.
But there were some games worthy of note, and so to the weekly awards we go:
Upset of the Week: Houston 45-35 over Oklahoma St. OSU has done well in recent years, but still consistently rides in the shadow of their arch-rival Oklahoma. With Oklahoma’s national title hopes dashed by their loss to BYU and the loss of their Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford in week 1, the road was paved for OSU to step forward and represent the Panhandle State on the national scene. But before they can do that, they have to get a defense.
Comeback of the Week: North Carolina 12-10 over Connecticut. The Huskies kept UNC in check for 3 quarters, but when the game was on the line the Tar Heels broke through for 10 points to tie the score. Fittingly, in a tough defensive struggle, the final difference in the game was a safety by the Tar Heels defense. UNC, traditionally more of a basketball school than a football school, suddenly finds themselves ranked #24 in the AP.
Yawner of the Week: As I alluded before, nominations for this dubious award are replete this early in the season. I’m going with Louisiana-Monroe’s 58-0 victory over Texas Southern. If you want more of an explanation, you are free to look it up yourself. I recommend not wasting your time.
Game of the Week: Pundits have been falling over themselves telling fans that both Notre Dame and Michigan are “back”. And, it so happens, they are. A very entertaining game in Ann Arbor this past weekend resulted in Michigan freshman quarterback Tate Forcier leading a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minute to give the Wolverines a 38-34 victory. Both these teams will be fun to watch for the rest of the year, something they have not been in recent years.
And now, my computer rankings after week 2. My usual caveat: 2 games is simply not enough of a sample size to adequately determine the relative strengths of 120 teams, hence these rankings are presented with a reliability factor of only 3.1%. That reliability factor will grow exponentially until about week 8, when it will hit its maximum value. The interesting things to glean from these early rankings are the fact that teams like Baylor, UCLA, and Wisconsin are in the top-10 because they have actually beaten some decent opponents. By contrast, Florida is #1 in the AP poll but #57 in the Hack-poll; they may very well be the best team in the country, but can we really know that after victories over the likes of Charleston Southern and Troy? I didn’t think so…
(AP poll numbers are shown for comparison)
Rank Team Wins Losses Value STR Last Week AP
1 Baylor 1 0 2.304 1 36
2 Alabama 2 0 2.106 2 4
3 LSU 2 0 2.085 9 9
4 UCLA 2 0 2.062 21 30
5 Miami FL 1 0 1.845 15 20
6 Texas 2 0 1.845 16 2
7 Wisconsin 2 0 1.845 17
8 Missouri 2 0 1.804 22 26
9 San Diego St 1 1 1.774 29
10 Nebraska 2 0 1.689 18 19
11 USC 2 0 1.413 37 3
12 Boise St 2 0 1.341 49 10
13 Houston 2 0 1.317 55 21
14 North Carolina 2 0 1.316 56 24
15 Arizona 2 0 1.312 57 39
16 Georgia Tech 2 0 1.312 58 14
17 Michigan 2 0 1.307 50 25
18 Minnesota 2 0 1.211 60 42
19 Penn St 2 0 1.211 61 5
20 BYU 2 0 1.209 62 7
21 Boston Coll 2 0 1.079 73 35
22 California 2 0 1.079 74 8
23 Cincinnati 2 0 1.079 75 17
24 Iowa 2 0 1.079 76 34
25 LA Lafayette 2 0 1.079 77
26 Oregon St 2 0 1.079 78 28
27 Southern Miss 2 0 1.079 79
28 West Virginia 2 0 1.079 80 32
29 Pittsburgh 2 0 1.035 81 27
30 SMU 2 0 1.035 82
31 Auburn 2 0 0.958 83 33
32 Washington 1 1 0.806 3
33 Oklahoma St 1 1 0.665 10 16
34 Connecticut 1 1 0.656 11
35 Oregon 1 1 0.632 13 38
36 Kentucky 1 0 0.593 91
37 Utah 2 0 0.591 92 18
38 Tulsa 2 0 0.591 93
39 Texas A&M 1 0 0.589 94
40 Arizona St 1 0 0.515 99
41 Arkansas 1 0 0.515 100 40
42 Louisville 1 0 0.515 101
43 Cent Michigan 1 1 0.501 19
44 Virginia Tech 1 1 0.486 20 13
45 Wake Forest 1 1 0.476 24
46 Clemson 1 1 0.472 23 37
47 Indiana 2 0 0.465 102
48 Ohio St 1 1 0.451 25 11
49 Vanderbilt 1 1 0.272 30
50 Fresno St 1 1 0.268 31
51 LA Monroe 1 1 0.268 32
52 Northern Illinois 1 1 0.268 33
53 Wyoming 1 1 0.268 34
54 Illinois 1 1 0.268 35
55 Notre Dame 1 1 0.241 26 31
56 South Florida 2 0 0.214 107 42
57 Florida 2 0 0.214 108 1
58 Kansas 2 0 0.214 109 22
59 Texas Tech 2 0 0.214 110 29
60 Hawaii 2 0 0.212 111
61 Colorado St 2 0 0.211 112 41
62 Northwestern 2 0 0.211 113
63 Arkansas St 1 1 0.187 36
64 Tennessee 1 1 0.185 38
65 Georgia 1 1 0.164 39 23
66 Bowling Green 1 1 0.152 40
67 Mississippi 1 0 0.131 115 6
68 East Carolina 1 1 0.129 41
69 Iowa St 1 1 0.129 42
70 Kansas St 1 1 0.129 43
71 Kent St 1 1 0.129 44
72 Maryland 1 1 0.129 45
73 Rutgers 1 1 0.129 46
74 UCF 1 1 0.129 47
75 UNLV 1 1 0.129 48
76 Air Force 1 1 0.100 51
77 Akron 1 1 0.100 52
78 Oklahoma 1 1 0.100 53 12
79 Mississippi St 1 1 0.097 54
80 Idaho 1 1 0.036 63
81 Buffalo 1 1 0.027 64
82 UAB 1 1 0.027 65
83 Purdue 1 1 0.000 70
84 Ohio 1 1 -0.007 71
85 Florida St 1 1 -0.081 88 42
86 South Carolina 1 1 -0.130 84
87 TCU 1 0 -0.248 118 15
88 Michigan St 1 1 -0.310 89
89 Marshall 1 1 -0.310 90
90 Stanford 1 1 -0.394 95
91 Navy 1 1 -0.395 96
92 Middle Tenn St 1 1 -0.397 97
93 New Mexico St 1 1 -0.465 103
94 NC St 1 1 -0.470 104
95 Toledo 1 1 -0.537 105
96 Duke 1 1 -0.648 106
97 Army 1 1 -0.659 114
98 North Texas 1 1 -0.771 117
99 Florida Intl 0 1 -0.787 4
100 Florida Atlantic0 1 -0.794 5
101 Syracuse 0 2 -0.794 6
102 Miami OH 0 2 -0.811 7
103 San Jose St 0 2 -0.844 8
104 W Michigan 0 2 -0.855 12
105 Tulane 0 2 -0.863 14
106 Utah St 0 1 -0.929 27
107 New Mexico 0 2 -0.929 28
108 Others-Normal 0.139506 1.743827 -0.965 59
109 West Kentucky 0 2 -1.143 66
110 Troy 0 2 -1.148 67
111 Rice 0 2 -1.151 68
112 UTEP 0 2 -1.151 69
113 Louisiana Tech 0 2 -1.168 72
114 Washington St 0 2 -1.209 85
115 Colorado 0 2 -1.214 86
116 East Michigan 0 2 -1.220 87
117 Memphis 0 2 -1.315 116
118 Nevada 0 1 -1.336 98
119 Virginia 0 2 -1.481 120
120 Ball St 0 2 -1.517 119
121 Temple 0 1 -1.574 121
Interesting games next week:
(25) LA-Lafayette vs. (3) LSU [Surprising 2-0 Rajun’ Cajuns come back to earth against the cross-state big bullies]
(16) Georgia Tech vs. (5) Miami FL [Early season ACC matchup highlights Miami’s return to respectability]
(15) Arizona vs. (24) Iowa [Defensive-minded Wildcats have a shot to enter Pac-10 play undefeated]
(22) Cal vs. (18) Minnesota [When Cal’s #10 AP rank was published last week, Matthew quickly let loose with a chant of O-VER-RAT-ED, and went on to list 15 or so teams that were ranked below Cal but would (in his view) beat them. This is Cal’s first chance this year to face a good team on the road and see if they can live up to their top-10 hype.]
posted by The Hack Poll at
2:45 PM
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