2011 Ratings, Week 10

What a travesty!  The LSU-Alabama game was billed as the “Game of the Century”.  And it did come close to living up to its billing for four quarters.  So it was truly a shame that such a great battle was ultimately decided by college football’s ridiculous overtime rules.  Football is a game, not just of offense and defense, but also of kickoffs, punts, field position, and clock management, and to throw out those last four aspects irreparably changes a good game into a farce.  Take this example.  Late in the game, with the score tied at 6-6, Alabama was driving in LSU territory and threw a pass that was intercepted in a brilliant play at the 1-yard-line.  LSU dodged a bullet, but they still had the ball deep in their own territory, and in three plays they could only advance the ball seven yards, so they had to punt.  Alabama was expecting to get the ball with good field position and the potential to score again.  However, the Alabama punt returner (who was injured but still on the field) elected not to try to catch the punt, allowing it instead to bounce and roll beyond him until it was finally downed 72 yards from the line of scrimmage.  Instead of having good field position, Alabama had to start deep in its own territory.  Neither team was able to score again in regulation, and the game went into overtime.  These are the kinds of game-changing, momentum-affecting plays that make a football game great, and these are exactly the kinds of plays of which the fans are robbed by college football’s overtime rules.  Grr.

Okay, enough ranting.  At least Cal won, beating WSU 30-7.  If only we could play all our games at home.

Upset of the week:  With USC ineligible for post-season competition this year, and Utah, Colorado, UCLA, and Arizona underperforming, Arizona St seemed a shoe-in for the Pac-12 South’s berth in the inaugural championship game.  UCLA shocked the Sun Devils with a 29-28 home victory, and in doing so have claimed the inside track to the title game.  The Bruins still have an uphill battle ahead of them, having to face USC on the road while ASU’s toughest remaining opponent is Cal, but for UCLA to even be in the Pac-12 title discussion right now is a major feat after their embarrassment at Arizona a couple of weeks ago.

Yawner of the week:  Georgia’s 63-16 win over New Mexico St.  The Bulldogs scored 6 touchdowns in the second quarter alone, and the halftime score was 49-3.  Most teams schedule their non-conference cupcakes at the beginning of the season, but SEC teams do it in the middle of their schedule fairly frequently.

Comeback of the week:  Utah St, on the road in a night game at Hawaii, found themselves down 28-7 at halftime, and if there was ever a recipe for phoning in a second half, this was it.  Instead, they outscored Hawaii 28-3 in the second half and emerged with a victory, 35-31.

Game of the week:  My frustration with how the LSU-Alabama game ended dissipated quickly as I switched to the end of the Oklahoma St – Kansas St game.  A week after getting blasted by Oklahoma, K-St was matching OSU score for score, until OSU went ahead 52-45 with just over 3 minutes to go.  K-St put together a great final drive, which resulted in them getting three shots at a game tying touchdown from the 5-yard line.  They failed to score, and OSU outlasted K-St to remain undefeated and the favorite to face LSU in the National Championship game.

Speaking of LSU’s opponent in the NCG, there has been a lot of talk about whether Alabama might rise to #2 in the BCS and there might be a rematch.  That talk is very premature, in my opinion.  According to my computer, Alabama is not even the best 1-loss team in the country; that honor belongs to Oklahoma, currently ranked #4 (behind Boise St, but notably ahead of Stanford).  That sets up another interesting conundrum, also highlighted by the fact that 1-loss Alabama is currently ahead of both Boise and Stanford in the BCS rankings.  Boise, Stanford, Alabama, and Oklahoma all have one marquee opponent left on their schedules.  Stanford plays Oregon this week, Boise plays TCU this week, Alabama plays Auburn Thanksgiving weekend, and Oklahoma plays Oklahoma St on Championship weekend.   If all four win out (which would also mean that Oklahoma St would lose their last game), you could very easily see a scenario where two 1-loss teams (Alabama and Oklahoma) finish ahead of as many as three undefeated teams (Boise, Stanford, Houston).  Now, nobody is saying that Houston should be in the NCG, but Boise’s schedule is still comparable to any team from a BCS conference, and Stanford is in a BCS conference.  If Stanford goes undefeated and is still trumped by Oklahoma, or worse, by Alabama, there is going to be a major uproar.  Cal, meanwhile, will be doing everything in its power to render that particular contingency moot…

And now, the rankings:

Rank	Team		W-L	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Oklahoma St		9-0	7.165	STR-6	Last-1	AP-2
2	LSU		9-0	7.135	STR-8	Last-3	AP-1
3	Boise St		8-0	6.076	STR-31	Last-2	AP-5
4	Oklahoma		8-1	5.705	STR-5	Last-5	AP-7
5	Alabama		8-1	5.644	STR-10	Last-4	AP-4
6	Stanford		9-0	4.923	STR-97	Last-6	AP-3
7	Houston		9-0	4.578	STR-107	Last-7	AP-11
8	Clemson		8-1	4.538	STR-44	Last-8	AP-9
9	Oregon		8-1	4.403	STR-59	Last-15	AP-6
10	Virginia Tech		8-1	4.403	STR-53	Last-11	AP-10
11	Penn St		8-1	4.385	STR-56	Last-13	AP-12
12	Arkansas		8-1	4.194	STR-70	Last-16	AP-8
13	Texas		6-2	4.192	STR-3	Last-18	AP-21
14	South Carolina		7-2	3.954	STR-17	Last-12	AP-15
15	Southern Miss		8-1	3.887	STR-78	Last-19	AP-25
16	Kansas St		7-2	3.837	STR-19	Last-14	AP-17
17	Michigan		7-2	3.650	STR-24	Last-9	AP-22
18	USC		7-2	3.365	STR-37	Last-17	AP-18
19	Georgia		7-2	3.246	STR-48	Last-21	AP-14
20	Nebraska		7-2	3.213	STR-43	Last-10	AP-19
21	Cincinnati		7-1	3.161	STR-106	Last-28	AP-23
22	Michigan St		7-2	3.110	STR-57	Last-20	AP-13
23	Auburn		6-3	3.042	STR-9	Last-22	AP-24
24	Georgia Tech		7-2	2.838	STR-74	Last-23	AP-20
25	Notre Dame		6-3	2.659	STR-16	Last-31	AP-31
26	Wisconsin		7-2	2.626	STR-87		AP-16
27	TCU		7-2	2.556	STR-92		AP-26
28	Tulsa		6-3	2.465	STR-25		AP-34
29	Baylor		5-3	2.334	STR-14		AP-33
30	Texas A&M		5-4	2.156	STR-1
31	Washington		6-3	2.141	STR-38	Last-24	AP-30
32	Arkansas St		7-2	2.110	STR-109
33	LA Lafayette		8-2	2.070	STR-117
34	Illinois		6-3	1.992	STR-49
35	Ohio St		6-3	1.943	STR-54		AP-27
36	North Carolina		6-4	1.879	STR-18
37	West Virginia		6-3	1.876	STR-52		AP-34
38	Arizona St		6-3	1.846	STR-61	Last-25	AP-28
39	Rutgers		6-3	1.800	STR-58
40	SMU		6-3	1.559	STR-80
41	Florida St		6-3	1.443	STR-84		AP-29
42	Virginia		6-3	1.439	STR-86		AP-34
43	Florida		5-4	1.198	STR-20
44	Miami FL		5-4	1.188	STR-23
45	UCLA		5-4	1.169	STR-21
46	Iowa		6-3	1.116	STR-98		AP-31
47	BYU		6-3	1.107	STR-102
48	Louisville		5-4	1.043	STR-30
49	Nevada		5-3	1.042	STR-82
50	Texas Tech		5-4	0.904	STR-42
51	Toledo		5-4	0.869	STR-40
52	Mississippi St		5-4	0.849	STR-41
53	Wake Forest		5-4	0.767	STR-45
54	San Diego St		5-3	0.721	STR-100
55	Ball St		6-4	0.700	STR-88
56	Iowa St		5-4	0.686	STR-55
57	NC St		5-4	0.661	STR-63
58	Northern Illinois		6-3	0.652	STR-114
59	Wyoming		5-3	0.641	STR-103
60	Ohio		6-3	0.599	STR-118
61	Syracuse		5-4	0.593	STR-66
62	Missouri		4-5	0.544	STR-4
63	W Michigan		5-4	0.520	STR-69
64	Utah		5-4	0.490	STR-72
65	California		5-4	0.476	STR-73
66	Tennessee		4-5	0.333	STR-11
67	Marshall		4-5	0.318	STR-15
68	Louisiana Tech		5-4	0.270	STR-83
69	South Florida		4-4	0.179	STR-47
70	Florida Intl		5-4	0.147	STR-89
71	East Michigan		5-4	0.110	STR-96
72	Air Force		5-4	0.002	STR-101
73	Temple		5-4	-0.115	STR-105
74	Vanderbilt		4-5	-0.170	STR-27
75	East Carolina		4-5	-0.274	STR-32
76	Purdue		4-5	-0.380	STR-36
77	West Kentucky		5-4	-0.458	STR-113
78	Kentucky		4-5	-0.489	STR-50
79	Pittsburgh		4-5	-0.540	STR-60
80	Northwestern		4-5	-0.607	STR-67
81	Hawaii		5-4	-0.917	STR-120
82	UTEP		4-5	-0.955	STR-90
83	Connecticut		4-5	-0.991	STR-95
84	Rice		3-6	-1.040	STR-13
85	Bowling Green		4-5	-1.123	STR-99
86	UCF		4-5	-1.429	STR-112
87	Miami OH		4-5	-1.477	STR-115
88	North Texas		3-6	-1.539	STR-29
89	Navy		3-6	-1.581	STR-35
90	Kent St		3-6	-1.603	STR-39
91	Utah St		3-5	-1.685	STR-94
92	San Jose St		3-6	-1.811	STR-65
93	Duke		3-6	-1.853	STR-64
94	Kansas		2-7	-1.961	STR-2
95	Fresno St		3-6	-2.035	STR-79
96	Washington St		3-6	-2.101	STR-81
97	Arizona		2-7	-2.259	STR-7
98	Army		3-6	-2.346	STR-108
99	Cent Michigan		3-7	-2.451	STR-91
100	New Mexico St		3-6	-2.495	STR-111
101	Mississippi		2-7	-2.658	STR-22
102	Colorado St		3-5	-2.675	STR-121
103	Minnesota		2-7	-2.746	STR-34
104	Maryland		2-7	-2.752	STR-33
105	UNLV		2-6	-2.760	STR-68
106	Troy		2-6	-2.896	STR-71
107	Oregon St		2-7	-2.958	STR-46
108	LA Monroe		2-7	-3.007	STR-51
109	Boston Coll		2-7	-3.171	STR-75
110	Buffalo		2-7	-3.234	STR-93
111	Middle Tenn St		2-6	-3.254	STR-104
112	Idaho		2-7	-3.571	STR-110
113	Memphis		2-7	-3.672	STR-116
114	Colorado		1-9	-3.886	STR-12
115	Tulane		2-8	-4.020	STR-119
116	Indiana		1-9	-4.205	STR-28
117	UAB		1-8	-4.342	STR-76
118	Akron		1-8	-4.439	STR-85
119	FCS		6-87	-4.824	STR-62
120	Florida Atlantic		0-8	-5.426	STR-26
121	New Mexico		0-9	-5.690	STR-77

Most overrated:  Wisconsin (7-2, AP #16, Hack #26)  The Badgers returned to what they do best last week, beating up on inferior opponents (this time a 62-17 win over Purdue), but their schedule strength is still #87 in the country.

Most underrated:  Texas (6-2, AP #21, Hack #13)  With a win over Texas Tech, the Longhorns are finally getting some love again.  They finish their season with a home date against K-St and three tough road games.

Mark your calendars for (games with conference or national championship implications):

11/19  Louisiana Tech @ Nevada  [With Boise St gone from the conference, this is the marquee WAC game of the year]

11/22  Miami OH @ Ohio  [The MAC is a convoluted mess right now, but the winner of this game will probably play Northern Illinois for that conference title]

11/25  Arkansas @ LSU  [If the Razorbacks can pull the upset, that sets up a potential 3-way tie for first in the SEC West between LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas]

11/25  Houston @ Tulsa  [Houston’s toughest remaining challenge as they try for an undefeated season]

11/26  Alabama @ Auburn  [Conundrum game referred to earlier]

11/26  Virginia Tech @ Virginia  [The Cavaliers have won 3 straight and are amazingly in the discussion for a trip to the ACC title game]

11/26  UCLA @ USC  [The Bruins could be playing this game for a chance to go to the Pac-12 title game]

12/3  Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St  [Assuming the Cowboys win out, this could be their ticket to the NCG]

Interesting games this weekend:

(53) Wake Forest vs. (8) Clemson  [Despite being overmatched against Notre Dame, the Demon Deacons still control their own fate to the ACC title game if they can upset Clemson]

(22) Michigan St vs (46) Iowa  [The Hawkeyes lose to Minnesota, then beat Michigan.  And they still control their own fate to the Big-10 title game if they can beat Michigan St and Nebraska]

(27) TCU vs. (3) Boise St  [BCS bowl rematch]

(9) Oregon vs. (6) Stanford  [The winner of this game will be favored to win the Pac-12 title game, especially if they end up playing UCLA]

(23) Auburn vs. (19) Georgia  [South Carolina lost last week to Arkansas, putting Georgia in the driver’s seat to reach the SEC title game.  The Bulldogs need to win out, though, and this is the toughest remaining conference game on their schedule]

(33) LA-Lafayette vs. (32) Arkansas St  [Probably the marquee matchup in the Sun Belt Conference this year]

(107) Oregon St vs. (65) California  [Cal’s best chance to achieve bowl eligibility is to win this game – their only other remaining games are on the road against Stanford and Arizona St]