2011 Ratings, Week 9

The theme for the weekend was almost-upsets.  Illinois missed a field goal at the end of regulation that would have sent their game with Penn St into overtime (and in so missing, assured Joe Paterno of his record-setting 409^th win as the head coach).  Vanderbilt blew an 11-point 3^rd quarter lead, and then missed a field goal at the end of the game that would have sent their game with Arkansas into overtime as well.  And a USC receiver, after catching a pass in field goal range to give his team a chance to upset Stanford, failed to go down in enough time to call a timeout; the clock ran out and Stanford eventually prevailed in 3 overtimes.

Meanwhile, Cal suffered probably its most embarrassing loss of the season, falling at UCLA 31-14.  UCLA was shorthanded due to injuries and suspensions, but they still ran the ball out of their “pistol” offense all day, and the Bears had no answer.  Even more distressing is the fact that, eight games in, Zack Maynard doesn’t seem to be getting any better.  We have one of the best receivers in the country in Keenan Allen, but in the words of Troy Taylor, quarterback Maynard “doesn’t value the ball enough”, throwing 4 interceptions, including 3 to a single defender – freshman Tevin McDonald.  Jeff Tedford will have to deal quickly with his inconsistent quarterback if the Bears have any hope of a .500 season and a bowl game – Cal really needs to win its next two home games against OSU and WSU.

A bit of a surprise in my computer rankings this week, too.  LSU and Alabama both had byes, and surprisingly Boise St passed them, and equally surprising, LSU also passed Alabama.  This is a testament primarily to the fact that Boise’s and LSU’s previous opponents fared better this week than did Alabama’s, so while Boise’s strength-of-schedule rank improved from 29 to 20, LSU’s essentially stayed put (dropping from 20 to 21), and Alabama’s dropped from 19 to 25.  What this boils down to is that, as far as my computer is concerned, LSU, Alabama, and Boise St are virtually indistinguishable at the moment.  That will change this week, as LSU and Alabama play each other.  The winner of that game is almost guaranteed the schedule strength boost to put them at the top of my rankings (probably leapfrogging Oklahoma St), while Boise will take a strength-of-schedule hit by playing 2-5 UNLV.

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week:  My “most overrated”’s keep losing: this time Wisconsin laid an egg against Ohio St at the Horseshoe.  Since the Badgers are consequently ineligible for this award, it goes instead to Texas Tech’s loss to Iowa St.  Everyone jumped on the TTU bandwagon after their upset win over Oklahoma last week, but the young team proved especially vulnerable to letdown after the big emotional victory, and they were blown away at home by the Cyclones , 41-7.

Yawner of the week:  The only FBS team to play an FCS team this week was Army, and they beat Fordham 55-0.  The game was 21-0 after the first quarter and 42-0 at halftime.  Yawn.

Comeback of the week:  This is just not Texas A&M’s year.  For the third time this year, they blew a double-digit halftime lead (this time 28-17) and eventually lost (this time to Missouri, 38-31 in overtime).  The Aggies were hoping to contend for the title in their final year in the Big-12 before moving to the SEC, but after three embarrassing losses they would just assume avoid the spotlight for a while.

Game of the week:  Loathe as I am to admit it, the Stanford-USC game was a great game.  Stanford ended up winning in the 3^rd overtime 56-48, preserving their undefeated season and continuing their warmup for the big showdown in two weeks with Oregon.

And now, this week’s rankings:

Rank	Team		W-L	Value	STR	Last Week	AP
1	Oklahoma St		8-0	6.275	STR-9	Last-1	AP-3
2	Boise St		7-0	5.845	STR-20	Last-4	AP-5
3	LSU		8-0	5.828	STR-21	Last-3	AP-1
4	Alabama		8-0	5.731	STR-25	Last-2	AP-2
5	Oklahoma		7-1	5.134	STR-3	Last-7	AP-7
6	Stanford		8-0	4.961	STR-71	Last-8	AP-4
7	Houston		8-0	4.396	STR-96	Last-9	AP-14
8	Clemson		8-1	4.359	STR-34	Last-5	AP-11
9	Michigan		7-1	4.329	STR-24	Last-11	AP-13
10	Nebraska		7-1	4.301	STR-30	Last-18	AP-9
11	Virginia Tech		8-1	4.192	STR-41	Last-10	AP-12
12	South Carolina		7-1	4.143	STR-36	Last-13	AP-10
13	Penn St		8-1	4.128	STR-53	Last-14	AP-16
14	Kansas St		7-1	3.948	STR-50	Last-6	AP-17
15	Oregon		7-1	3.728	STR-70	Last-15	AP-6
16	Arkansas		7-1	3.607	STR-75	Last-17	AP-8
17	USC		6-2	3.354	STR-16	Last-12	AP-21
18	Texas		5-2	3.262	STR-6	Last-21	AP-26
19	Southern Miss		7-1	3.118	STR-92	Last-23	AP-27
20	Michigan St		6-2	3.009	STR-32	Last-19	AP-15
21	Georgia		6-2	2.961	STR-33	Last-24	AP-18
22	Auburn		6-3	2.695	STR-8	Last-26	AP-25
23	Georgia Tech		7-2	2.636	STR-66	Last-36	AP-22
24	Washington		6-2	2.609	STR-57	Last-29	AP-28
25	Arizona St		6-2	2.500	STR-63	Last-25	AP-20
26	West Virginia		6-2	2.491	STR-62		AP-24
27	North Carolina		6-3	2.432	STR-17
28	Cincinnati		6-1	2.392	STR-109		AP-23
29	Texas A&M		5-3	2.329	STR-7	Last-16	AP-31
30	Wisconsin		6-2	2.172	STR-84	Last-20	AP-19
31	Notre Dame		5-3	2.092	STR-13		AP-33
32	Arkansas St		6-2	2.030	STR-88
33	Ohio St		5-3	1.931	STR-19		AP-29
34	Illinois		6-3	1.875	STR-43
35	Tulsa		5-3	1.831	STR-28
36	LA Lafayette		7-2	1.756	STR-108
37	TCU		6-2	1.709	STR-104		AP-30
38	Toledo		5-3	1.615	STR-39
39	Baylor		4-3	1.574	STR-14
40	Syracuse		5-3	1.487	STR-46	Last-22
41	Wake Forest		5-3	1.403	STR-44
42	Texas Tech		5-3	1.371	STR-58
43	SMU		5-3	1.363	STR-59
44	Rutgers		5-3	1.276	STR-61
45	Florida St		5-3	1.252	STR-60		AP-32
46	Missouri		4-4	1.195	STR-2
47	Nevada		5-3	1.148	STR-72
48	Wyoming		5-2	1.033	STR-110
49	Virginia		5-3	0.975	STR-80
50	BYU		6-3	0.939	STR-101
51	East Michigan		5-3	0.922	STR-83
52	Miami FL		4-4	0.905	STR-10
53	Florida Intl		5-3	0.851	STR-82
54	San Diego St		4-3	0.705	STR-67
55	South Florida		4-3	0.589	STR-74
56	Vanderbilt		4-4	0.544	STR-22
57	W Michigan		5-4	0.507	STR-68
58	Mississippi St		4-4	0.500	STR-26
59	Florida		4-4	0.480	STR-23
60	Temple		5-3	0.471	STR-106
61	UCLA		4-4	0.429	STR-27
62	Louisville		4-4	0.344	STR-38
63	Iowa St		4-4	0.235	STR-49
64	Utah		4-4	0.218	STR-48
65	Marshall		4-5	0.214	STR-18
66	Ball St		5-4	0.207	STR-89
67	Iowa		5-3	0.177	STR-112
68	East Carolina		4-4	0.134	STR-56
69	Purdue		4-4	0.062	STR-51
70	Northern Illinois		5-3	0.023	STR-116
71	California		4-4	0.021	STR-64
72	NC St		4-4	-0.091	STR-76
73	Ohio		5-3	-0.105	STR-119
74	Tennessee		3-5	-0.140	STR-4
75	UTEP		4-4	-0.175	STR-79
76	Hawaii		5-3	-0.202	STR-120
77	Louisiana Tech		4-4	-0.259	STR-81
78	Pittsburgh		4-4	-0.412	STR-97
79	Air Force		4-4	-0.605	STR-105
80	San Jose St		3-5	-0.906	STR-40
81	Bowling Green		4-5	-0.967	STR-98
82	UCF		4-4	-0.984	STR-114
83	Kentucky		3-5	-1.064	STR-47
84	Duke		3-5	-1.154	STR-54
85	West Kentucky		4-4	-1.183	STR-118
86	North Texas		3-6	-1.333	STR-29
87	Kansas		2-6	-1.339	STR-1
88	Northwestern		3-5	-1.467	STR-77
89	Connecticut		3-5	-1.525	STR-94
90	Fresno St		3-5	-1.533	STR-86
91	Washington St		3-5	-1.585	STR-90
92	Arizona		2-6	-1.672	STR-5
93	Miami OH		3-5	-1.708	STR-100
94	Rice		2-6	-1.821	STR-15
95	Mississippi		2-6	-1.892	STR-12
96	Cent Michigan		3-6	-1.915	STR-91
97	Army		3-5	-1.952	STR-113
98	Troy		2-5	-2.049	STR-45
99	New Mexico St		3-5	-2.073	STR-115
100	Kent St		2-6	-2.170	STR-35
101	Maryland		2-6	-2.171	STR-31
102	Navy		2-6	-2.192	STR-37
103	Minnesota		2-6	-2.284	STR-42
104	Utah St		2-5	-2.329	STR-93
105	UNLV		2-5	-2.358	STR-95
106	Colorado St		3-5	-2.370	STR-121
107	Boston Coll		2-6	-2.589	STR-69
108	Oregon St		2-6	-2.635	STR-78
109	Middle Tenn St		2-5	-2.654	STR-102
110	LA Monroe		2-6	-2.690	STR-85
111	Buffalo		2-7	-3.072	STR-103
112	Memphis		2-7	-3.325	STR-111
113	Colorado		1-8	-3.364	STR-11
114	Tulane		2-7	-3.468	STR-117
115	Akron		1-7	-3.748	STR-73
116	Indiana		1-8	-3.842	STR-52
117	UAB		1-7	-3.959	STR-99
118	Idaho		1-7	-4.094	STR-107
119	FCS		6-86	-4.348	STR-65
120	Florida Atlantic		0-7	-5.033	STR-55
121	New Mexico		0-8	-5.184	STR-87

Most overrated:  Wisconsin (6-2, AP#19, Hack#30).  Same reasons as last week.

Most underrated:  Texas (5-2, AP#26, Hack#18).  Same reasons as last week.  Texas has a stretch of tough games coming up though, so if they win they will likely shoot up in the AP poll and if they lose they will likely lose ground in the HackPoll.

Mark your calendars for (interesting games in the weeks ahead):

11/12:  Wake Forest @ Clemson  [With Clemson having lost last week, the door is open for Wake Forest to sneak into the ACC title game if they can also beat Clemson]

11/12:  TCU @ Boise St  [With all the alignment craziness, TCU originally was going to the Big East next year before backing out and going to the Big-12 instead, and now it looks like Boise might go to the Big East]

11/12:  Oregon @ Stanford  [The Duck coaching staff is no doubt looking closely at Stanford’s game film from the USC game – the Trojans hung 34 points in regulation on the Cardinal, and Oregon’s prolific offense should be looking to do even better]

11/19:  Nebraska @ Michigan  [The Huskers control their own fate in the Big10, but they have a number of tough games coming up including this one]

11/25:  Houston @ Tulsa  [Continuing his quest for an undefeated season, Houston quarterback Case Keenum threw 9 touchdown passes last week.  Tulsa is probably the best team remaining on the Cougars’ schedule]

12/3:  Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St  [The Cowboys are used to being the second team in the Oklahoma market, but if they win out from here and beat the Sooners, that could be their ticket to the BCS championship]

Interesting games this week:

(12) South Carolina vs. (16) Arkansas  [Even though the Gamecocks control their own fate in the SEC East, this tough road game could cost them their trip to the SEC championship – Georgia fans will be watching this game closely]

(14) Kansas St vs. (1) Oklahoma St  [Last week Oklahoma embarrassed K-St.  The Wildcats will try to play a better game this week, but they will need a perfect game to beat the #1 team on the road]

(3) LSU vs. (4) Alabama  [This could be a bloodbath – it’s a battle of probably the two best defenses in the country]

(15) Oregon vs. (24) Washington  [By contrast to the LSU-Alabama game, this one should be a high-scoring affair]

(91) Washington St vs. (71) California  [Cal needs a win if they hope to avoid a losing season – thank goodness this one is at home]