Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

2011 Ratings, Week 9


The theme for the weekend was almost-upsets.  Illinois missed a field goal at the end of regulation that would have sent their game with Penn St into overtime (and in so missing, assured Joe Paterno of his record-setting 409th win as the head coach).  Vanderbilt blew an 11-point 3rd quarter lead, and then missed a field goal at the end of the game that would have sent their game with Arkansas into overtime as well.  And a USC receiver, after catching a pass in field goal range to give his team a chance to upset Stanford, failed to go down in enough time to call a timeout; the clock ran out and Stanford eventually prevailed in 3 overtimes.

Meanwhile, Cal suffered probably its most embarrassing loss of the season, falling at UCLA 31-14.  UCLA was shorthanded due to injuries and suspensions, but they still ran the ball out of their “pistol” offense all day, and the Bears had no answer.  Even more distressing is the fact that, eight games in, Zack Maynard doesn’t seem to be getting any better.  We have one of the best receivers in the country in Keenan Allen, but in the words of Troy Taylor, quarterback Maynard “doesn’t value the ball enough”, throwing 4 interceptions, including 3 to a single defender – freshman Tevin McDonald.  Jeff Tedford will have to deal quickly with his inconsistent quarterback if the Bears have any hope of a .500 season and a bowl game – Cal really needs to win its next two home games against OSU and WSU.

A bit of a surprise in my computer rankings this week, too.  LSU and Alabama both had byes, and surprisingly Boise St passed them, and equally surprising, LSU also passed Alabama.  This is a testament primarily to the fact that Boise’s and LSU’s previous opponents fared better this week than did Alabama’s, so while Boise’s strength-of-schedule rank improved from 29 to 20, LSU’s essentially stayed put (dropping from 20 to 21), and Alabama’s dropped from 19 to 25.  What this boils down to is that, as far as my computer is concerned, LSU, Alabama, and Boise St are virtually indistinguishable at the moment.  That will change this week, as LSU and Alabama play each other.  The winner of that game is almost guaranteed the schedule strength boost to put them at the top of my rankings (probably leapfrogging Oklahoma St), while Boise will take a strength-of-schedule hit by playing 2-5 UNLV.

The weekly awards:

Upset of the week:  My “most overrated”’s keep losing: this time Wisconsin laid an egg against Ohio St at the Horseshoe.  Since the Badgers are consequently ineligible for this award, it goes instead to Texas Tech’s loss to Iowa St.  Everyone jumped on the TTU bandwagon after their upset win over Oklahoma last week, but the young team proved especially vulnerable to letdown after the big emotional victory, and they were blown away at home by the Cyclones , 41-7.

Yawner of the week:  The only FBS team to play an FCS team this week was Army, and they beat Fordham 55-0.  The game was 21-0 after the first quarter and 42-0 at halftime.  Yawn.

Comeback of the week:  This is just not Texas A&M’s year.  For the third time this year, they blew a double-digit halftime lead (this time 28-17) and eventually lost (this time to Missouri, 38-31 in overtime).  The Aggies were hoping to contend for the title in their final year in the Big-12 before moving to the SEC, but after three embarrassing losses they would just assume avoid the spotlight for a while.

Game of the week:  Loathe as I am to admit it, the Stanford-USC game was a great game.  Stanford ended up winning in the 3rd overtime 56-48, preserving their undefeated season and continuing their warmup for the big showdown in two weeks with Oregon.

And now, this week’s rankings:

Rank Team
W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Oklahoma St 8-0 6.275 STR-9 Last-1 AP-3
2 Boise St
7-0 5.845 STR-20 Last-4 AP-5
3 LSU
8-0 5.828 STR-21 Last-3 AP-1
4 Alabama
8-0 5.731 STR-25 Last-2 AP-2
5 Oklahoma
7-1 5.134 STR-3 Last-7 AP-7
6 Stanford
8-0 4.961 STR-71 Last-8 AP-4
7 Houston
8-0 4.396 STR-96 Last-9 AP-14
8 Clemson
8-1 4.359 STR-34 Last-5 AP-11
9 Michigan
7-1 4.329 STR-24 Last-11 AP-13
10 Nebraska
7-1 4.301 STR-30 Last-18 AP-9
11 Virginia Tech 8-1 4.192 STR-41 Last-10 AP-12
12 South Carolina 7-1 4.143 STR-36 Last-13 AP-10
13 Penn St
8-1 4.128 STR-53 Last-14 AP-16
14 Kansas St 7-1 3.948 STR-50 Last-6 AP-17
15 Oregon
7-1 3.728 STR-70 Last-15 AP-6
16 Arkansas
7-1 3.607 STR-75 Last-17 AP-8
17 USC
6-2 3.354 STR-16 Last-12 AP-21
18 Texas
5-2 3.262 STR-6 Last-21 AP-26
19 Southern Miss 7-1 3.118 STR-92 Last-23 AP-27
20 Michigan St 6-2 3.009 STR-32 Last-19 AP-15
21 Georgia
6-2 2.961 STR-33 Last-24 AP-18
22 Auburn
6-3 2.695 STR-8 Last-26 AP-25
23 Georgia Tech 7-2 2.636 STR-66 Last-36 AP-22
24 Washington 6-2 2.609 STR-57 Last-29 AP-28
25 Arizona St 6-2 2.500 STR-63 Last-25 AP-20
26 West Virginia 6-2 2.491 STR-62
AP-24
27 North Carolina 6-3 2.432 STR-17

28 Cincinnati
6-1 2.392 STR-109
AP-23
29 Texas A&M 5-3 2.329 STR-7 Last-16 AP-31
30 Wisconsin 6-2 2.172 STR-84 Last-20 AP-19
31 Notre Dame 5-3 2.092 STR-13
AP-33
32 Arkansas St 6-2 2.030 STR-88

33 Ohio St
5-3 1.931 STR-19
AP-29
34 Illinois
6-3 1.875 STR-43

35 Tulsa
5-3 1.831 STR-28

36 LA Lafayette 7-2 1.756 STR-108

37 TCU
6-2 1.709 STR-104
AP-30
38 Toledo
5-3 1.615 STR-39

39 Baylor
4-3 1.574 STR-14

40 Syracuse
5-3 1.487 STR-46 Last-22
41 Wake Forest 5-3 1.403 STR-44

42 Texas Tech 5-3 1.371 STR-58

43 SMU
5-3 1.363 STR-59

44 Rutgers
5-3 1.276 STR-61

45 Florida St
5-3 1.252 STR-60
AP-32
46 Missouri
4-4 1.195 STR-2

47 Nevada
5-3 1.148 STR-72

48 Wyoming
5-2 1.033 STR-110

49 Virginia
5-3 0.975 STR-80

50 BYU
6-3 0.939 STR-101

51 East Michigan 5-3 0.922 STR-83

52 Miami FL
4-4 0.905 STR-10

53 Florida Intl 5-3 0.851 STR-82

54 San Diego St 4-3 0.705 STR-67

55 South Florida 4-3 0.589 STR-74

56 Vanderbilt
4-4 0.544 STR-22

57 W Michigan 5-4 0.507 STR-68

58 Mississippi St 4-4 0.500 STR-26

59 Florida
4-4 0.480 STR-23

60 Temple
5-3 0.471 STR-106

61 UCLA
4-4 0.429 STR-27

62 Louisville
4-4 0.344 STR-38

63 Iowa St
4-4 0.235 STR-49

64 Utah
4-4 0.218 STR-48

65 Marshall
4-5 0.214 STR-18

66 Ball St
5-4 0.207 STR-89

67 Iowa
5-3 0.177 STR-112

68 East Carolina 4-4 0.134 STR-56

69 Purdue
4-4 0.062 STR-51

70 Northern Illinois 5-3 0.023 STR-116

71 California
4-4 0.021 STR-64

72 NC St
4-4 -0.091 STR-76

73 Ohio
5-3 -0.105 STR-119

74 Tennessee 3-5 -0.140 STR-4

75 UTEP
4-4 -0.175 STR-79

76 Hawaii
5-3 -0.202 STR-120

77 Louisiana Tech 4-4 -0.259 STR-81

78 Pittsburgh
4-4 -0.412 STR-97

79 Air Force
4-4 -0.605 STR-105

80 San Jose St 3-5 -0.906 STR-40

81 Bowling Green 4-5 -0.967 STR-98

82 UCF
4-4 -0.984 STR-114

83 Kentucky
3-5 -1.064 STR-47

84 Duke
3-5 -1.154 STR-54

85 West Kentucky 4-4 -1.183 STR-118

86 North Texas 3-6 -1.333 STR-29

87 Kansas
2-6 -1.339 STR-1

88 Northwestern 3-5 -1.467 STR-77

89 Connecticut 3-5 -1.525 STR-94

90 Fresno St
3-5 -1.533 STR-86

91 Washington St 3-5 -1.585 STR-90

92 Arizona
2-6 -1.672 STR-5

93 Miami OH
3-5 -1.708 STR-100

94 Rice
2-6 -1.821 STR-15

95 Mississippi 2-6 -1.892 STR-12

96 Cent Michigan 3-6 -1.915 STR-91

97 Army
3-5 -1.952 STR-113

98 Troy
2-5 -2.049 STR-45

99 New Mexico St 3-5 -2.073 STR-115

100 Kent St
2-6 -2.170 STR-35

101 Maryland
2-6 -2.171 STR-31

102 Navy
2-6 -2.192 STR-37

103 Minnesota 2-6 -2.284 STR-42

104 Utah St
2-5 -2.329 STR-93

105 UNLV
2-5 -2.358 STR-95

106 Colorado St 3-5 -2.370 STR-121

107 Boston Coll 2-6 -2.589 STR-69

108 Oregon St
2-6 -2.635 STR-78

109 Middle Tenn St 2-5 -2.654 STR-102

110 LA Monroe 2-6 -2.690 STR-85

111 Buffalo
2-7 -3.072 STR-103

112 Memphis
2-7 -3.325 STR-111

113 Colorado
1-8 -3.364 STR-11

114 Tulane
2-7 -3.468 STR-117

115 Akron
1-7 -3.748 STR-73

116 Indiana
1-8 -3.842 STR-52

117 UAB
1-7 -3.959 STR-99

118 Idaho
1-7 -4.094 STR-107

119 FCS
6-86 -4.348 STR-65

120 Florida Atlantic 0-7 -5.033 STR-55

121 New Mexico 0-8 -5.184 STR-87









Most overrated:  Wisconsin (6-2, AP#19, Hack#30).  Same reasons as last week.

Most underrated:  Texas (5-2, AP#26, Hack#18).  Same reasons as last week.  Texas has a stretch of tough games coming up though, so if they win they will likely shoot up in the AP poll and if they lose they will likely lose ground in the HackPoll.

Mark your calendars for (interesting games in the weeks ahead):
11/12:  Wake Forest @ Clemson  [With Clemson having lost last week, the door is open for Wake Forest to sneak into the ACC title game if they can also beat Clemson]
11/12:  TCU @ Boise St  [With all the alignment craziness, TCU originally was going to the Big East next year before backing out and going to the Big-12 instead, and now it looks like Boise might go to the Big East]
11/12:  Oregon @ Stanford  [The Duck coaching staff is no doubt looking closely at Stanford’s game film from the USC game – the Trojans hung 34 points in regulation on the Cardinal, and Oregon’s prolific offense should be looking to do even better]
11/19:  Nebraska @ Michigan  [The Huskers control their own fate in the Big10, but they have a number of tough games coming up including this one]
11/25:  Houston @ Tulsa  [Continuing his quest for an undefeated season, Houston quarterback Case Keenum threw 9 touchdown passes last week.  Tulsa is probably the best team remaining on the Cougars’ schedule]
12/3:  Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St  [The Cowboys are used to being the second team in the Oklahoma market, but if they win out from here and beat the Sooners, that could be their ticket to the BCS championship]

Interesting games this week:
(12) South Carolina vs. (16) Arkansas  [Even though the Gamecocks control their own fate in the SEC East, this tough road game could cost them their trip to the SEC championship – Georgia fans will be watching this game closely]
(14) Kansas St vs. (1) Oklahoma St  [Last week Oklahoma embarrassed K-St.  The Wildcats will try to play a better game this week, but they will need a perfect game to beat the #1 team on the road]
(3) LSU vs. (4) Alabama  [This could be a bloodbath – it’s a battle of probably the two best defenses in the country]
(15) Oregon vs. (24) Washington  [By contrast to the LSU-Alabama game, this one should be a high-scoring affair]
(91) Washington St vs. (71) California  [Cal needs a win if they hope to avoid a losing season – thank goodness this one is at home]

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