Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Monday, November 06, 2006

Another shoe has dropped, and there may be more on the way. Week 10 brought about some fascinatingly close games and a little more definition (though no more clarity) to the BCS championship picture. And on top of that, USC became the latest victim of the Stanford Curse. But more on that later; first the recap:

Upset of the Week: This is a tough one to pick. I don’t really consider Louisville’s victory over West Virginia to be that much of an upset – I had thought that the Mountaineers were overrated to begin with and that Louisville would be able to take advantage of having this game at home. LSU winning a road game over Tennessee is a mild upset, but LSU is a worthy top-15 team whose two losses were on the road at top-10 teams (Auburn and Florida). Wake Forest had slipped some in my ratings, so the Demon Deacons’ win over Boston College, throwing the race for the Atlantic Division of the ACC into chaos in the process, is a mild upset. Maryland’s stock is climbing and Clemson’s is falling, so the Terrapins’ 13-12 victory in Death Valley is less shocking than it would have been a month ago. So after all of that, I’m going to pick Arizona’s 27-17 victory at Washington St. This was supposed to have been the year for the Wildcats to show some improvement in their rebuilding operation, but they were disappointing early in the season. They have won two of their last three, however, and this is a potential trap upcoming for the California Golden Bears. Cal should be heavily favored at Arizona this weekend, a week before they head to the big showdown at USC, but the Bears cannot afford to look past this young and improving Wildcat team.

Comeback of the Week: This is another tough one, because there were a lot of comeback attempts that just fell short. Illinois scored 10 points in the fourth quarter in a losing effort to Ohio St, 17-10. Ball St needed a touchdown and 2-point conversion to tie Michigan in the waning minutes of their game but came up just 2 yards short. I’ll give an honorable mention to San Jose St, who scored 16 points in the final quarter at New Mexico St to beat the Aggies 31-21. San Jose St, behind new coach (and former Arizona head coach) Dick Tomey, is bowl eligible for the first time in recent memory (thanks also in part to playing the easiest schedule in the nation). New Mexico St still has not beaten a D-IA team since 2004. The top comeback of the week award, though, will go to Kentucky, who scored 2 fourth quarter touchdowns to beat Georgia, 24-20.

Yawner of the Week: Honorable mention to Air Force’s 43-7 win over Army. The Falcons scored 36 points in the second quarter and the game was never in doubt. The real yawner of the week goes to USC, who in beating Stanford 42-0 suffered the Cardinal Curse. The Trojans dropped four spots in my ratings a week ago by losing to Oregon St, and they dropped an equal number of spots this week merely by playing Stanford! The strength-of-schedule hit they took by playing the third worst team in the country allowed them to be leapfrogged by Auburn, Rutgers, Cal, and Notre Dame. Not to worry, though, their strength-of-schedule will be bolstered by remaining games against (24) Oregon, (8) Notre Dame, (7) Cal, and (63) UCLA. Cal actually still has to worry about their strength-of-schedule – they play (118) Stanford in their last game on December 2.

Game of the Week: Any other week I would pick the LSU-Tennessee, an exciting battle of SEC powerhouses that seesawed until LSU scored a touchdown with nine seconds to go in the game to win, 28-24. But as neither of those teams was in contention for a league title, the implications of that game were not as severe as those surrounding the Louisville-West Virginia game, a shootout where both offenses moved the ball up and down the field at will. Over 1000 yards of total offense were generated, and the speed of the running backs and wide receivers on both teams exploited the rather porous defensive secondaries. Were it not for West Virginia running back Steve Slaton injuring his funny bone, causing him to fumble twice, these two teams might still be racking up points. As it is, Louisville was able to take advantage of West Virginia mistakes en route to a 44-34 victory, and the Cardinals claimed the inside track to the second spot in the BCS championship game.

And with all of that, here are this week’s ratings (and yes, Doug, I fixed the formatting so you can see all the columns now):

Rank

Team

Wins

Losses

Value

STR

Last Week

AP

1

Michigan

10

0

6.623

17

1

2

2

Louisville

8

0

6.422

30

4

3

3

Ohio St

10

0

6.320

32

2

1

4

Florida

8

1

5.871

2

3

6

5

Auburn

9

1

5.364

20

10

5

6

Rutgers

8

0

5.353

76

8

15

7

California

8

1

5.191

18

9

8

8

Notre Dame

8

1

5.167

22

6

9

9

USC

7

1

5.130

12

5

7

10

Texas

9

1

5.050

37

13

4

11

Boise St

9

0

4.965

100

11

14

12

Tennessee

7

2

4.428

4

7

13

13

West Virginia

7

1

4.409

50

12

10

14

Arkansas

8

1

4.178

73

16

11

15

Wisconsin

9

1

4.148

79

18

16

16

LSU

7

2

4.049

11

24

12

17

Georgia Tech

7

2

3.925

16

17

19

18

Oklahoma

7

2

3.896

21

21

17

19

Boston Coll

7

2

3.727

26

14

22

20

Maryland

7

2

3.302

47

27

23

21

Texas A&M

8

2

3.259

64

15

24

22

Wake Forest

8

1

3.198

112

29

18

23

Virginia Tech

7

2

3.033

65

25

20

24

Oregon

7

2

2.944

68

26

21

25

Oregon St

6

3

2.921

10

28

27

26

Clemson

7

3

2.874

31

20

28

27

Tulsa

7

2

2.738

82

19

32

28

Nebraska

7

3

2.687

36

26

29

BYU

7

2

2.681

83

25

30

Missouri

7

3

2.566

39

23

31

Washington St

6

4

2.112

8

22

32

Penn St

6

4

2.059

9

33

TCU

6

2

1.976

103

30

34

Hawaii

7

2

1.949

115

29

35

Navy

6

3

1.739

71

36

Houston

7

3

1.708

91

30

37

Ohio

7

3

1.700

96

38

W Michigan

7

2

1.514

118

39

Kentucky

5

4

1.425

13

40

Cent Michigan

6

3

1.412

90

41

Middle Tenn St

6

3

1.344

98

42

Pittsburgh

6

3

1.339

95

43

Oklahoma St

5

4

1.267

19

44

Cincinnati

5

4

1.147

34

45

South Carolina

5

4

1.089

35

46

Iowa

6

4

1.068

53

47

Texas Tech

6

4

1.064

56

48

South Florida

6

3

0.991

108

49

Purdue

6

4

0.832

78

50

Kansas St

6

4

0.825

80

51

Alabama

6

4

0.801

81

52

Nevada

6

3

0.767

111

53

Arizona St

5

4

0.758

55

54

Florida St

5

4

0.662

54

55

Georgia

6

4

0.655

93

56

San Jose St

6

2

0.594

120

57

East Carolina

5

4

0.497

67

58

Southern Miss

4

4

0.470

33

59

Miami FL

5

4

0.316

86

60

Washington

4

6

0.047

1

61

Indiana

5

5

0.034

45

62

Air Force

4

4

-0.011

51

63

UCLA

4

5

-0.033

24

64

LA Lafayette

4

4

-0.045

66

65

Northern Illinois

5

4

-0.047

104

66

Minnesota

4

6

-0.152

5

67

Utah

5

4

-0.183

110

68

Arizona

4

5

-0.201

38

69

Wyoming

5

5

-0.330

85

70

SMU

5

4

-0.393

114

71

New Mexico

5

4

-0.424

113

72

Michigan St

4

6

-0.619

23

73

Arkansas St

5

4

-0.635

117

74

Troy

4

4

-0.655

102

75

Connecticut

3

5

-0.657

15

76

Kansas

5

5

-0.739

106

77

Rice

4

5

-0.854

75

78

UTEP

4

5

-0.867

77

79

Kent St

5

4

-0.913

119

80

Baylor

4

6

-0.972

49

81

Virginia

4

6

-1.054

57

82

Vanderbilt

4

6

-1.069

52

83

Marshall

4

5

-1.192

101

84

NC St

3

6

-1.201

25

85

Idaho

4

6

-1.242

69

86

Syracuse

3

6

-1.279

27

87

Akron

4

5

-1.323

109

88

Bowling Green

4

6

-1.476

87

89

Colorado St

4

5

-1.608

116

90

Tulane

3

6

-1.644

42

91

Mississippi St

3

7

-1.765

29

92

Louisiana Tech

3

6

-1.774

46

93

Mississippi

3

7

-1.789

28

94

Florida Atlantic

3

6

-1.974

72

95

UAB

3

6

-2.070

89

96

Iowa St

3

7

-2.145

44

97

Northwestern

3

7

-2.260

59

98

Toledo

3

6

-2.399

107

99

Army

3

7

-2.439

88

100

Ball St

3

7

-2.686

99

101

Illinois

2

8

-2.738

7

102

UCF

2

7

-2.876

40

103

North Texas

2

7

-3.088

61

104

New Mexico St

2

7

-3.224

74

105

Buffalo

2

7

-3.350

92

106

Fresno St

1

7

-3.642

14

107

North Carolina

1

8

-3.733

6

108

San Diego St

1

7

-4.025

48

109

Utah St

1

8

-4.235

43

110

Temple

1

9

-4.301

41

111

LA Monroe

1

7

-4.335

84

112

Colorado

1

9

-4.361

63

113

UNLV

1

8

-4.399

70

114

Memphis

1

7

-4.441

94

115

East Michigan

1

8

-4.552

97

116

Others-Normal

0.836516

8.365164

-4.563

58

117

Miami OH

1

9

-4.799

105

118

Stanford

0

9

-5.109

3

119

Florida Intl

0

8

-5.637

62

120

Duke

0

9

-5.650

60

Most overrated team: Texas (8-1, AP#4, Hack#10). The human polls seem to love the Longhorns, but their best win to date has been over Oklahoma, whereas the 1-loss (and even 2-loss) teams in the SEC have had more impressive wins. Texas can improve their status on my computer by beating Texas A&M and winning the rematch with Nebraska in the Big-12 championship, but it’s a stretch to claim that they are the best 1-loss team in the country.

Most underrated team: Rutgers (8-0, AP#15, Hack#6). The question that has the BCS bigwigs biting their nails about this week: if Rutgers manages to beat Louisville and then go into West Virginia and win there as well, would they earn a trip to the national championship game or would they be overlooked in favor of a 1-loss team such as Florida, given how low they are currently ranked?

Interesting games this week:

(2) Louisville vs. (6) Rutgers [Biggest game in Piscataway, probably ever]

(12) Tennessee vs. (14) Arkansas [Razorbacks need to win 2 of last 3 to reach title game]

(24) Oregon vs. (9) USC [First of 3 tough home games for Trojans]

(7) California vs. (68) Arizona [Last tuneup before big showdown at ‘SC]

By the way, thanks for the comments. Brian, I’ll get the past posts up as soon as I can find the time…