Hack Poll College Football Ratings

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Lots of upsets this week, and I was worried that Cal might be among them when they were listed as 3-point favorites to beat UCLA in Pasadena. But Jeff Tedford successfully used the bye week to right the Bears’ ship, and Cal recovered from its two recent embarrassing losses to put up good numbers in a 45-26 win. Kevin Riley looked good in the first half but kind of shaky in the second. Jahvid Best had one Heisman-like run, an 83-yard touchdown that he basically created out of thin air. Other than that, though, the real star for Cal was Shane Vareen, who rushed for 154 yards and a touchdown. Cal has good momentum heading into their game against Washington St this week.

To the weekly awards:

Upset of the week: Lots of candidates for this award, but I’m going with Purdue’s 26-18 victory over Ohio St. The Buckeyes never fooled anyone into believing that they were invincible in the Big 10, but no one expected the hapless Boilermakers to force Terrell Pryor into so many mistakes in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. Ohio St is officially out of the national title picture, and they have an uphill battle ahead of them to even win the Big 10.

Comeback of the week: Arizona recovered from a 15-point deficit to Stanford to beat the Cardinal 43-38. The Wildcats are one fluke play (the so-called Immaculate Interception at Washington) from being undefeated in the Pac-10 so far this year.

Yawner of the week: Michigan led 49-3 at halftime en route to a 63-6 thrashing of Delaware St. The depressing footnote to this game is that the Hornets chose to forfeit a regularly scheduled conference game against North Carolina A&T in order to get trounced in Ann Arbor. The reason, of course, is that Michigan paid DSU a hefty sum (around $500,000) to play the game, significantly more than DSU would have made from playing NCA&T. It’s unfortunate when a monetary payout wins out over good competition and conference affiliation.

Game of the week: Last week, Arkansas handed Auburn its first loss of the year, and they came close to doing the same thing to Florida this week. But the Razorback’s attempt at a late lead-gaining field goal was wide, and then Tim Tebow, as he has done so many times, led the Gators on a drive that culminated in a last-second field goal, allowing Florida to escape with a 23-20 win. Florida was listed as #1 in the first BCS standings published this year, although AP voters actually moved Alabama to #1 in their poll.

And now, with 70.8% reliability, here are this week’s rankings:

Rank Team W-L Value STR Last Week AP
1 Iowa 7-0 5.155 STR-11 Last-4 AP-7
2 Florida 6-0 4.890 STR-21 Last-3 AP-2
3 Alabama 7-0 4.795 STR-25 Last-2 AP-1
4 Texas 6-0 4.777 STR-26 Last-5 AP-3
5 Cincinnati 6-0 4.009 STR-68 Last-7 AP-5
6 TCU 6-0 3.992 STR-59 Last-6 AP-10
7 Boise St 6-0 3.793 STR-83 Last-12 AP-6
8 Virginia Tech 5-2 3.762 STR-1 Last-1 AP-15
9 Oregon 5-1 3.670 STR-14 Last-11 AP-12
10 Georgia Tech 6-1 3.561 STR-23 Last-17 AP-11
11 LSU 5-1 3.559 STR-16 Last-10 AP-9
12 Miami FL 5-1 3.340 STR-22 Last-13 AP-8
13 USC 5-1 2.995 STR-36 Last-16 AP-4
14 Pittsburgh 6-1 2.785 STR-55 Last-22 AP-20
15 Penn St 6-1 2.719 STR-67 Last-23 AP-13
16 Houston 5-1 2.546 STR-57 Last-25 AP-17
17 Wisconsin 5-2 2.522 STR-13 Last-14 AP-36
18 West Virginia 5-1 2.497 STR-66 Last-27 AP-22
19 Oklahoma St 5-1 2.416 STR-82 Last-32 AP-14
20 Arizona 4-2 2.345 STR-7 Last-30 AP-32
21 Ohio St 5-2 2.156 STR-33 Last-9 AP-18
22 Idaho 6-1 2.134 STR-102 Last-19 AP-36
23 Utah 5-1 2.122 STR-96 Last-21 AP-19
24 Kansas 5-1 2.106 STR-89 Last-8 AP-24
25 BYU 6-1 2.028 STR-104 Last-24 AP-16
26 Notre Dame 4-2 2.013 STR-18 Last-18 AP-26
27 South Carolina 5-2 1.998 STR-40 AP-23
28 Cent Michigan 6-1 1.942 STR-110 AP-31
29 Nebraska 4-2 1.896 STR-19 Last-15 AP-29
30 Michigan 5-2 1.771 STR-50 AP-30
31 Oregon St 4-2 1.759 STR-37 AP-35
32 California 4-2 1.670 STR-42 AP-33
33 Auburn 5-2 1.637 STR-62 Last-20 AP-40
34 South Florida 5-1 1.538 STR-115 AP-28
35 Connecticut 4-2 1.537 STR-44
36 Texas Tech 5-2 1.529 STR-79 AP-21
37 Boston Coll 5-2 1.519 STR-69 AP-40
38 Georgia 4-3 1.505 STR-10
39 Navy 5-2 1.499 STR-76 AP-36
40 North Carolina 4-2 1.168 STR-70
41 Arizona St 4-2 1.164 STR-71
42 Minnesota 4-3 1.126 STR-27
43 Missouri 4-2 1.071 STR-80 AP-36
44 Mississippi 4-2 1.042 STR-84 AP-27
45 Washington 3-4 1.040 STR-2
46 Arkansas 3-3 1.037 STR-5 AP-34
47 Troy 4-2 1.035 STR-77
48 Kentucky 3-3 0.988 STR-6
49 Oklahoma 3-3 0.929 STR-8 AP-25
50 Clemson 3-3 0.874 STR-9
51 Michigan St 4-3 0.866 STR-43
52 Rutgers 4-2 0.839 STR-99
53 LA Monroe 4-2 0.756 STR-101
54 Iowa St 4-3 0.732 STR-46
55 LA Lafayette 4-2 0.677 STR-106
56 UCLA 3-3 0.603 STR-20
57 Tennessee 3-3 0.595 STR-24
58 Stanford 4-3 0.561 STR-54
59 Marshall 4-3 0.450 STR-64
60 Ohio 5-2 0.441 STR-118
61 Air Force 4-3 0.395 STR-73
62 Fresno St 3-3 0.296 STR-39
63 Tulsa 4-2 0.259 STR-116
64 Wake Forest 4-3 0.213 STR-88
65 Kansas St 4-3 0.210 STR-90
66 East Carolina 4-3 0.189 STR-94
67 Colorado St 3-4 0.165 STR-12
68 Indiana 4-3 0.013 STR-100
69 Virginia 3-3 -0.058 STR-58
70 Northern Illinois 3-3 -0.082 STR-63
71 Southern Miss 4-3 -0.122 STR-107
72 Temple 4-2 -0.142 STR-121
73 Mississippi St 3-4 -0.144 STR-34
74 Baylor 3-3 -0.189 STR-78
75 SMU 3-3 -0.205 STR-74
76 Wyoming 4-3 -0.226 STR-111
77 Nevada 3-3 -0.248 STR-81
78 Colorado 2-4 -0.269 STR-3
79 Toledo 4-3 -0.286 STR-112
80 Florida St 2-4 -0.307 STR-4
81 UCF 3-3 -0.342 STR-91
82 Bowling Green 3-4 -0.388 STR-53
83 Louisiana Tech 3-3 -0.394 STR-95
84 Duke 3-3 -0.532 STR-97
85 NC St 3-4 -0.548 STR-60
86 Texas A&M 3-3 -0.570 STR-105
87 Middle Tenn St 3-3 -0.656 STR-108
88 Northwestern 4-3 -0.658 STR-119
89 Buffalo 3-4 -0.695 STR-65
90 UTEP 2-4 -0.770 STR-29
91 W Michigan 3-4 -0.845 STR-87
92 Syracuse 2-4 -0.864 STR-30
93 Louisville 2-4 -0.936 STR-31
94 Purdue 2-5 -1.017 STR-15
95 Tulane 2-4 -1.226 STR-52
96 San Diego St 2-4 -1.262 STR-51
97 Kent St 3-4 -1.464 STR-114
98 New Mexico St 3-4 -1.552 STR-117
99 UAB 2-4 -1.556 STR-92
100 Army 3-4 -1.615 STR-120
101 UNLV 2-5 -1.694 STR-56
102 Maryland 2-5 -1.774 STR-75
103 Hawaii 2-4 -1.905 STR-109
104 Memphis 2-5 -2.012 STR-98
105 Arkansas St 1-4 -2.039 STR-17
106 Vanderbilt 2-5 -2.127 STR-103
107 Washington St 1-5 -2.256 STR-28
108 Florida Atlantic 1-4 -2.319 STR-48
109 San Jose St 1-5 -2.405 STR-35
110 Illinois 1-5 -2.503 STR-38
111 Florida Intl 1-5 -2.530 STR-41
112 Akron 1-5 -2.589 STR-45
113 Utah St 1-5 -2.825 STR-86
114 North Texas 1-5 -2.896 STR-85
115 Others-Normal -3.488 STR-47
116 Miami OH 0-7 -3.836 STR-32
117 Rice 0-7 -4.012 STR-49
118 East Michigan 0-6 -4.044 STR-61
119 New Mexico 0-6 -4.070 STR-72
120 West Kentucky 0-6 -4.270 STR-93
121 Ball St 0-7 -4.435 STR-113

Most overrated team: Texas Tech (5-2, AP#21, Hack#36) The Red Raiders “earned” their #21 ranking by this weekend’s victory over Nebraska, but the rest of their season has been quite ordinary: wins over North Dakota, Rice, New Mexico and Kansas St, and losses to Houston and Texas. In two weeks they will enter a stretch where they will play Kansas, Oklahoma St, and Oklahoma – that stretch will tell us how strong they really are.

Most underrated team: Wisconsin (5-2, AP#36, Hack#17) You can apply my Texas Tech argument to Wisconsin in reverse, as the Badgers have also beaten inferior teams and lost to superior teams. The difference is that Wisconsin also has wins over Fresno St, Michigan St, and Minnesota – all better teams than any of the teams Texas Tech has beaten. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, they don’t play another ranked team this year, so they won’t have much opportunity to climb very high in the polls even if they do win out.

BCS Pie-in-the-sky predictions: I’ve been trying to find a reason not to project Iowa to the national championship game, but I can’t do it. Their gritty road wins at Penn St and Wisconsin lead me to believe that they have a shot to go into the Horseshoe and beat Ohio St, and I have to believe that they have as good if not a better chance to finish the season undefeated than Texas or Cincinnati. So here goes:

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Pittsburgh [If LSU is BCS-eligible, they could very well be a more attractive selection for the Sugar Bowl committee than a 1-loss Florida or Alabama simply because they are local.]
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. USC [Rematch of the Vince Young Rose Bowl]
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Penn St [Don’t ask me to explain the ACC tiebreakers. Yet.]
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise St [And the Rose Bowl gets shafted by the BCS again.]
Championship: Iowa vs. Florida

Interesting games next week:
(6) TCU vs. (25) BYU [TCU still has to play both BYU and Utah. If the Horned Frogs can win both games, they probably pass Boise as this year’s BCS-buster]
(1) Iowa vs. (51) Michigan St [Hawkeyes try to pull off another big road win]
(33) Auburn vs (11) LSU [After a 5-0 start, Auburn has lost 2 straight heading into this tough road game]
(49) Oklahoma vs. (24) Kansas [Jayhawks try to take advantage of Bradford-less Sooners]
(34) South Florida vs. (14) Pittsburgh [Panthers quietly having a very good season, and are still my pick to win the Big East]
(10) Georgia Tech vs. (69) Virginia [Bizarrely, Cavaliers are the only ACC team without a conference loss so far]
(31) Oregon St vs (13) USC [Last tuneup for Trojans before they visit Eugene]
(107) Washington St vs. (32) California [Jahvid Best needs a breakout game – except for 1 run last week he’s been basically silenced since Minnesota]